Dodgers: Projecting the Dodger Lineup After the First Flurry of Moves

The Dodgers front office has been very clear this offseason; they are very comfortable with the core of their roster. That’s led to very minimal changes to Dave Robert’s lineup come the start of the 2018 season. Let’s take a look at how the lineup projects next season.

Despite a somewhat quiet offseason for the MLB regarding the big-name free agents, the Dodgers will have a slightly new look to their team come Opening Day. Last week they made a big trade that moved about $90M in salary between both sides and acquired a new outfielder.

Aside from the addition of Matt Kemp, the Dodgers have other questions surrounding the daily fixture of the team. Wil Dave Roberts utilize a platoon at second base? Who will be the starting catcher? Who will solidify the 5th spot in the lineup that was a big problem for the Dodgers last season?

While most of the regulars are already set, Roberts still has some decisions to make with the lineup. We saw Roberts use 110 different lineups last season, so there’s a very good possibility of several changes throughout the season. Let’s take the first crack at what the Dodgers lineup could look with Opening Day less than 100 days away.

** This lineup is constructed as if there were a right-handed starter on the mound **

2. Corey Seager, Shortstop

Unfortunately, the era of small ball baseball is slowly dying in today’s game. Typically the number two hitter would be someone that you can rely on to make contact, drop a bunt down, or put on a hit and run play.

That trend is slowly fading as we’re starting to see the team’s best hitter hit in the number two slot. Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, Joey Votto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton all hit in the number two slot for their team’s lineup. That may be the case for Dave Roberts here.

Corey Seager might be the best pure hitter on the Dodgers roster. I’ll be it there are several that can challenge him for that title, but in his first two seasons, Seager has been a model of consistency.

Through his first two and a half seasons, Seager has a career slash rate of .305/.374/.502 with 52 home runs and 166 RBI. At this point, Seager has proven that we can already pencil him in for a .300 average with 20-25 home run upside and ceiling of 80 RBI.

Seager hit in the two spot in every single one of his starts last season, and I love Seager hitting second. Hitting second allows him to maximize his at-bats and produce at the top of the order. I would love to see Seager in hitting more in a position to drive in runs, but his game fits perfectly in the number two hole.

Seager was clutch last season when hitting with runners in scoring position with a .361 average and 6 home runs and 53 RBI. Maybe in a few seasons, we see Seager drop to the number three slot to have the opportunity to drive in more runs. But for next season, Seager is locked into hitting second.

3. Justin Turner, Third Base

Justin Turner is becoming ole’ reliable for the Dodgers. As the oldest starter in the Dodgers’ lineup, Turner provides great at-bats in the middle of the Dodgers order. Turner is coming off of what I’ll say was the best season of his career as he slashed a career-high .322/.415/.530 while ranking second on the Dodgers in WAR (5.5).

The run production numbers are a little down for what you’d like to see out of your number three hitter. Turner has 161 RBI in the past two seasons as the Dodgers’ number three hitter. Ideally, you’d like to see those numbers about around the 90-110 range. But that’s not the Dodgers MO.

What makes this lineup so difficult for opposing pitchers is that they can hurt you at any part of their order. We already talked about Taylor and Seager, between these three atop the order, the Dodgers had 220 RBIs combined last season.

It actually makes the lineup more difficult for pitchers when the top of the order averages 70+ RBI opposed to one hitter driving in half of the team’s runs. Of course, you’d like to see Turner’s get closer to the century mark, but you can’t have your cake and eat it too.

Turner is developing into one of the game’s best pure hitters. His high average allows the team to extend innings, which often leads to crooked numbers being put up on the scoreboard. Let’s continue to enjoy Turner at the number three slot.

4. Cody Bellinger, First Base

The rookie set the baseball community on fire with his record-breaking year last season. For Bellinger, the power is undeniable. Bellinger was among the league’s best in the average home run distance (394 ft) and average exit velocity (89.6 mph). Now Bellinger gets his first full offseason to work with after his first taste of big league pitching.

Bellinger is the prototype of what today’s game is influencing hitters to become. Strikeouts don’t matter as much as long as you can hit the ball over the fence. That’s Bellinger’s style. While the 39 home runs were fantastic for driving in runs in bunches for Roberts, his 26% strikeout percentage was frustrating at times.

Bellinger led the team in strikeouts, but also led the team in home runs, RBI (97), slugging percentage (.581), and total bases (279). He was second on the team in OPS (.933) behind Turner, which indicates that he’s drawing his share of walks.

I’m very interested to see how Bellinger responds after an eye-opening rookie season. He now has 548 big league plate appearances under his belt, which gives pitchers plenty of at-bats to change the scouting report. If they attack Bellinger as the Astros did in the World Series, I hope Bellinger makes adjustments to hit the inside breaking ball.

Bellinger is the biggest power threat in the Dodgers lineup. For the greater part of last season, his average was hovering around .280. If Bellinger could come close to replicating his rookie season, the Dodgers would have one of the game’s best cleanup hitter, despite the strikeouts.

5. Yasiel Puig, Right Field

The number five spot in the Dodgers lineup was the lineup’s weakest link last season. Last season, the number five hitter in the lineup hit .215/.308/.390 with 162 strikeouts and only 76 RBI. Any player that Roberts put in there was immediately set to fail, including Puig.

Even Puig, who is coming off of his most complete season of his career struggled in the five hole. In 83 at-bats, Puig hit .193 and had his worst OBP (.264) of all other spots in the lineup. In fact, Puig really struggled to hit in the top half of the lineup altogether. He was statistically more productive hitting at the bottom of the order.

But I’m throwing Puig in here in hopes that he could replicate his 2017 season. Puig was visually more disciplined at the plate, and that led to a career-best walk rate (11.2%) and strikeout rate (17.5%).

Should Puig continue to trend in this direction, he’s a reliable protection for Bellinger. With Bellinger hitting fourth, you need to back him with someone who has power and could put the ball in play, and Puig is coming off of a career-high 28 home runs.

I would attest Puig’s struggles in the five spot to some bad luck. Puig’s batting average on balls in play (BAbip .190) was by far the lowest at any other place in the lineup.

Puig had a great season last year, and he deserves to get the first crack at hitting in a spot where he can produce more runs. However, if Puig regresses and his strikeout numbers jump back up, Roberts will have to drop him back to the comfortable spot of hitting eighth so he could see more fastballs.

6. Matt Kemp, Left Field

The biggest change to last year’s Dodger team comes as a return from a Dodger from the past. The Dodgers traded for Kemp last weekend, well at least for now, he’s the Dodgers starting left fielder. If the Dodgers are unable to find a trade partner for Kemp, he’ll fill in the left field hole the Dodgers have this season.

With Alex Verdugo lurking, Joc Pederson’s encouraging World Series, and Andrew Toles returning from injury, that spot was up for grabs. But at least for now, Kemp is taking over. While Kemp is coming off of a down season with the Braves, Kemp provides upside that neither of the players mentioned above offers.

To be quite honest, Kemp is a shell of what he once was during his first stint with the Dodgers. While he doesn’t possess the .320, 40-40 upside he owned back in 2011, he’s still capable of being productive on the offensive end.

Over the past two seasons, Kemp has hit 54 home runs with a .271 average and 172 RBI. While his OBP is low (.309) and strikeout rate is up (24%), he’s a middle of the lineup bat that is capable of producing runs.

Despite being on the wrong side of 30, Kemp still possesses the ability to hit .260 – .270 and hit 20-25 home runs over the course of a full season. His RBI numbers would depend on where he hits in the lineup. But over the past two seasons, Kemp is hitting .260 (71/271) with 10 home runs and 114 RBI with RISP.

I’m not going to lie; I’m a homer because Kemp was one of my favorite players since 2008. But I like Kemp to help produce runs for the Dodgers. I would say, however, Puig’s performance last season has earned him the right to hit fifth ahead of Kemp. Plus, the strikeout numbers with Bellinger and Kemp would be astronomical for our four and five hitters.

7. Austin Barnes/Yasmani Grandal, Catcher

Barnes vs. Grandal, the two are both interchangeable in this slot of the lineup. The difference between the two hitting styles wouldn’t factor in their spot in the lineup. Barnes is a much better hitter when in terms of putting the bat on the ball, while Grandal offers some power upside from the left side of the plate.

The way the roster currently sits, I still have to view Grandal as the starting catcher. Barnes had a tremendous season last year, but the fact that the Dodgers have held onto Grandal shows that they might not be ready to commit to him as their everyday catcher. This obviously changes if Grandal is moved before Opening Day, but despite last season’s struggles, it’s still Grandal’s spot to lose.

Assuming there’s a righty on the mound, Grandal brings balance to what is suddenly becoming a righty dominated lineup. With Taylor, Turner, Puig, Kemp, and Forsythe, what once was an overwhelmingly left-handed lineup has jumped over the other side of the batter’s box.

Grandal’s righty versus lefties splits improved a bit last season (.250 vs. RHP, .233 vs. LHP). But there’s no denying that Grandal sees the ball better coming from right-handers. Grandal had 20 home runs last season against righties, and his team-high strikeout rate is why he finds himself in the bottom half of the lineup.

Spring training will be huge for this position battle. I know the fanbase is behind Barnes after a great season. But let’s not be so quick to push out Grandal who is in the prime of his career and at the start of a contract season.

8. Logan Forsythe, Second Base

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Logan Forsythe made up for a really pedestrian regular season with a solid postseason. One of the very first moves the Dodgers made this offseason was picking up his $7M option. This move gave the Dodgers stability at second base, a position which they platooned for the greater part of last season.

Now with Chase Utley presumed gone and Charlie Culberson playing in Atlanta, it’s really only Forsythe competing for time at second base. There isn’t any other Dodger that could steal time away from Forsythe to make this a platoon. Kike Hernandez is capable of playing second but if Forsythe would platoon it would be for a left-hander against right-handed pitching.

If Forsythe struggles again next season, Roberts could open up the defensive alignment to move Pederson or Toles to play center field and bring Taylor in to play second. That’s an unlikely scenario at this point in the season, but Roberts does have that option if things go south with Forsythe.

Forsythe comes into this season with much more reasonable expectations. Last offseason he was expected to be a top two-hitter in the Dodger lineup and improve their struggles against left-handed pitching. He did well against left-handed pitching but struggled atop the lineup. This upcoming season he will be asked to play solid defense and occasionally get the pitcher to the box with 2-outs in an inning.

Next: Dodgers Should Buy Low on Britton

The Dodgers lineup, for the most part, will look the same as last season. Outside of the addition of Matt Kemp, there really isn’t anyone new starting for the Dodgers. Although Kemp’s future with the Dodgers is still very much up in the air, he could play a big role on this team. It remains to be seen how Roberts will manage the catching situation, but right now it’s anyone’s guess. Logan Forsythe figures to be the primary second baseman until he proves he’s not capable of handling the workload. What do you think the Dodger lineup should be next season? Let us know!