Dodgers: What is Happening with the Yu Darvish Situation so far

Free agency is in full swing, but the stars have yet to sign their megadeals. One of the stars still available is former Dodgers starter Yu Darvish.

Former Dodgers pitcher Yu Darvish is still a free agent no matter what you heard from “reports” a few nights ago. Just take him at his word.

He is one of the prized jewels of this winter’s free agency, and one of just two ace-caliber starters alongside Jake Arrieta. He is expected to get a contract in the range of 6+ years and at least $140 million. ZiPS’s projection is six years, $156.6 million, which would come out to be $26.1 million a year.

He is reported to have met with the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros, and while he has not met with the Dodgers, they were said to be in touch with him throughout the offseason. He met with his former club’s, the Texas Rangers, general manager Jon Daniels, but it was for a dinner that had been planned for a while. The Rangers aren’t expected to be serious players for him, but anything can happen.

The Twins are the surprise team that has come up, and many consider them serious threats to sign Darvish. At this point, it’s fair to call the Twins and Cubs as the favorites due to their rotation needs.

The Twins are a young and upstart team that finally made the playoffs after a seven-year drought. They lack a true ace that would take them to the next level and Darvish profiles as the perfect veteran ace.

The Cubs are expected to lose Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester is going to be 34 and is coming off a disappointing season, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana took steps back as well and profile as good mid-rotation arms at best.

And because of the huge deal, he is predicted to get; the Dodgers are probably out of the running. They are just doing their due diligence by checking in with him. Their recent historic salary-motivated trade shows that they want to get under the $197 luxury threshold for 2018, which sets them up perfectly financially for the future and shows they are serious about the 2018 free agency class.

As of right now, Darvish’s return seems highly unlikely, with the front office wanting to stay under $197 million. According to Baseball Reference, their projected 2018 payroll is $191.8 million. There are only a few ways they can re-sign Darvish.

First is to extremely backload the deal, so that he gets less than five million dollars next season, which would be quite something. Or the Dodgers somehow move Matt Kemp and his contract, or at least part of it.

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In a perfect world, the Dodgers would get another team to eat half of his remaining $43 million and get nothing significant, if anything at all, in return. This would clear just under $11 million for next season, leaving around $15.75 million to play with.

Then the Dodgers can see if Darvish would be willing to take a discount to play for a team that was one win away from a championship. Or they can pay him market value and backload it, but it wouldn’t be as severely backloaded as the first scenario, and more reasonable.

But we don’t live in a perfect world so getting a team to eat half of Kemp’s contract without sweetening the deal with a prospect is highly unlikely. If they don’t do that, they might have just to keep or release him. But if they can get anything from his deal off, they should go for it, giving them a little more flexibility.

If they can somehow get to even $10 million to work with this offseason, it’s better than nothing. But this is only if the Dodgers want him back and want to pay him. He is 31, had Tommy John a few years back, and going to require a pretty penny to get back. All ingredients for a hard pass for Andrew Friedman and Co. which is entirely understandable.

Next: Why it's time to trade Yasmani Grandal

They do not want to risk big bucks for the riskiest thing in baseball, a starting pitcher on the wrong side of 30. And they don’t want to do that with the risk of compromising their position for next year’s free agency.