Dodgers: 2018 Salary Arbitration Predictions
Alex Wood, LH Starting Pitcher, 2nd Year Arb Eligible
Wood had a breakout year winning 16 games while only losing 3, earning his first All-Star selection, and will still only be 27 years old. Wood had a 2.72 ERA, featured an outstanding 1.057 WHIP, and averaged just under a strikeout an inning, with 8.9 K/9. Most importantly, Wood was healthy enough to make 25 starts and pitch 152 innings. Wood is expected to serve as the #3 starter in the rotation in 2018.
COMPS: Dallas Keuchel, HOU; Jose Quintana, CHC; Drew Pomeranz, BOS
Keuchel is worth mentioning because after his 2nd-year arb eligible platform season he received $9.55 million after a down 2016 season. He was, however, a special case, as the season before he won the AL Cy Young, and received $7.3 million in arbitration after that season. He was in a position to receive a “slight bump” from the Astros. On to Quintana, whose 2016 platform season earned him $5.4 million in arbitration.
Quintana was also a first-time All-Star in his platform season, went 13-12, had a 3.20 ERA, a 1.163 WHIP, and was a workhorse making 32 starts while tossing 208 innings. He had more innings than Wood, but had slightly superior numbers, albeit in fewer games. Pomeranz’s platform season was also in 2016, in which he also was selected to his first All-Star Game. Overall,
Pomeranz was 11-12, with a 3.32 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, but in 30 starts had only 171 innings. Pomeranz received a raise to $4.45 million after this platform season. Wood made $2.8 million last year, so he is in line for a substantial increase in considering these comps. I predict a salary equal to Quintana’s despite Wood’s dominant numbers due to 56 fewer innings pitched by Wood.
PREDICTION: $5.4 million