Dodgers: 2018 Salary Arbitration Predictions

Every offseason we hear about arbitration-eligible players.  Usually, the interest in baseball arbitration piques at the Tender Deadline (came and went in early December) when teams decide to either offer arbitration to a player or cut ties based on the player’s projected earnings comparative to their expected contributions to the team.

However, the new luxury tax has added some intrigue to the 2018 arbitration cases, as every dollar spent on payroll inches a team towards new penalties that can cost organizations dollars and draft picks.  The Dodgers feature eight players currently eligible for arbitration, headlined by Yasmani Grandal and All-Star Alex Wood.

First, a little refresher on arbitration.  Players who have between three to five years service time, and who don’t have an existing contract, are eligible to participate in arbitration.  There is an exception: players with at least two years of service time, but not quite three, qualify as “Super Two” players if they are in the top 22% of players in this category.  Got it?  Good.  Check out the MLB.com Glossary for more detailed info on Super Two if you so desire.  Players who are tendered contracts at the Tender Deadline await their fate in February of the coming year, just before Spring Training, where they usually sit down with their agent to plead their case to independent arbitrators and files the desired salary, while the club does the same.

It can become quite contentious, as the club usually has to poke holes in the player’s game to justify why he should be awarded the lesser salary that the club wishes to pay.  Many times, contracts are struck before the case goes to arbitration, sometimes even hours before the hearing.

How do teams and players plead their case?  Well, players/ reps and clubs in the past have utilized traditional, back-of-baseball-card stats, but recently, advanced stats have begun to make their way into the process.  Sports on Earth examines this phenomenon here.  Players and teams will both compare the player usually to other players at the same position, in the same “platform year,” the service year under examination.  For example, Grandal is a third-year arb-eligible player, so we would look for catchers who had similar numbers in their third year of arb eligibility.  Also, keep in mind these comps from other teams below are to what those players were in their platform year, not what they are now for better or worse.

So, let’s take a stab at forecasting what our eight Dodgers will contribute to the 2018 Dodger payroll.  Also, while we do that, let’s  keep that $197 million thresholds in mind that the front office will not want to exceed so the tax penalty rate will reset in time for 2018-2019 offseason that will likely be filled with stud free agents.

Yasmani Grandal, Catcher, 3rd Year Arb Eligible

Let’s start with the Dodgers only 3rd Year arb-eligible, half of the team’s talented catching tandem. Grandal will likely be the highest paid player of this group, and with the emergence of Austin Barnes during the Postseason, some say Grandal is expendable, especially with the expected arbitration price tag.  Grandal played in 129 games, batted .247, drove in 58 runs, clubbed 22 home runs, and reached base at a .308 OBP.

We always hear about Grandal’s pitch framing skills, so you can bet his agent would bring this non-traditional metric to a hearing! However, there is not much historical data on catchers pitch framing abilities available for comparison, so it could be a tough point to argue.  Grandal’s pitch framing skills have ranked amongst the top 3-5 catchers in baseball over the past few years, depending on which metric is used.  Grandal, however, led the Majors in passed balls and was in the middle of the pack in throwing out baserunners.

COMPS:  Salvador Perez, KC; Matt Wieters, WAS; Wellington Castillo, CHW

When comparing Yaz to other catchers, we want to look at players who had their 3rd year platform season within the last few seasons–it makes for a smoother comparison, taking into account inflation, and other market factors present that were similar for each of these players when they received their contracts.  Perez is a natural comp, however, he signed a team friendly extension essentially buying out his arbitration while he was young (common tactic especially amongst smaller market clubs).  So let’s eliminate him.

Wieters earned $8.3 million after his 3rd-year platform season in 2014  despite the fact he played in only 26 games due to an injury-shortened season.  This could be bad news for the Dodgers. The Dodgers could point to Wieters previous seasons and argue he was a special case.  Well, Yaz’s past seasons are similar, but for those that value WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Wieters stood at 13.4  after his platform year, while Yas stands at 10.9.  So close argument for the Grandal camp here.  Finally, let’s look at Castillo.  After his platform year with Az in 2016, he received $6 million. 

Compared to Yaz, he had a slow start to his career but has emerged as a catcher with a similar offensive profile to Grandal, and his defensive stats in his platform year was comparable to Grandal’s platform year.  Although Grandal is a more highly regarded pitch framer and leader of a pitching staff.  If we go back to using WAR, Castillo just tops Yaz at 11.1.   This is an inexact science, so we need to take it into account some of the intangibles, such as Yaz’s handling of the pitching staff as a positive, and also his lack of clutchness down the stretch a negative. Yaz made $5.5 million last year. I have decided to take the midpoint between Castillo and Wieters salaries, and give it a little bump for Yaz because we like him.

PREDICTION: $7.5 million

Alex Wood, LH Starting Pitcher, 2nd Year Arb Eligible

Wood had a breakout year winning 16 games while only losing 3, earning his first All-Star selection, and will still only be 27 years old.  Wood had a 2.72 ERA, featured an outstanding 1.057 WHIP, and averaged just under a strikeout an inning, with 8.9 K/9.  Most importantly, Wood was healthy enough to make 25 starts and pitch 152 innings.   Wood is expected to serve as the #3 starter in the rotation in 2018.

COMPS:   Dallas Keuchel, HOU; Jose Quintana, CHC; Drew Pomeranz, BOS

Keuchel is worth mentioning because after his 2nd-year arb eligible platform season he received $9.55 million after a down 2016 season.  He was, however, a special case, as the season before he won the AL Cy Young, and received $7.3 million in arbitration after that season.  He was in a position to receive a “slight bump” from the Astros.  On to Quintana, whose 2016 platform season earned him $5.4 million in arbitration.

Quintana was also a first-time All-Star in his platform season, went 13-12, had a 3.20 ERA, a 1.163 WHIP, and was a workhorse making 32 starts while tossing 208 innings.  He had more innings than Wood, but had slightly superior numbers, albeit in fewer games.  Pomeranz’s platform season was also in 2016, in which he also was selected to his first All-Star Game. Overall,

Pomeranz was 11-12, with a 3.32 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, but in 30 starts had only 171 innings. Pomeranz received a raise to $4.45 million after this platform season.   Wood made $2.8 million last year, so he is in line for a substantial increase in considering these comps.  I predict a salary equal to Quintana’s despite Wood’s dominant numbers due to 56 fewer innings pitched by Wood.

PREDICTION:  $5.4 million

Josh Fields, RH Relief Pitcher, 2nd Year Arb Eligible

Fields was a valuable set up man throughout the season, despite a minor league demotion probably more designed to give him a break and aid him in straightening out minor mechanical issues.  Fields was 5-0 in 57 innings and 57 games (how is that for congruence), with 2.84 ERA, an outstanding 0.965 WHIP.  Fields had 15 holds. Looking closer at his Inherited Runner Scored %, 44%, Fields let 13 out of 23 inherited runners scored. This will slightly hurt him in arbitration. Fields is expected again to serve as a key set-up piece in the bullpen in 2018.

COMP:  Brad Brach, BAL

For Fields, Brach is what he could become.  Brach, like Fields, is a late bloomer. Brach’s platform season in 2016, saw him make his first All-Star squad as a set-up man.  In 2016 Brach posted a 10-4, a 2.05 ERA, a nice 1.038 WHIP, and allowed 24 out of 27 runners to score!   Brach had 24 holds.  So looking at these stats, it seems there are many similarities, however, Brach pitched in 71 games and 79 innings in his platform season. In conclusion, Fields is not quite what Brach was in his platform year, so take the midpoint of what Fields made last year, $1.05 million, and what Brach received, $3.05 million.

PREDICTION: $2.05 million

Tony Cingrani, LH Relief Pitcher, 2nd Year Arb Eligible

Cingrani was a surprisingly successful pick up at this past trade deadline. The former Reds starter and one-time closer is the front office’s latest reclamation project that appears will pay dividends down the line.  Cingrani was effective down the stretch for the Dodgers, as he posted a 2.79 ERA after the trade along with a 1.078 WHIP and 13 K’s/9. Overall, he had a less impressive 4.22 ERA in 47 games, with 1.219 WHIP.  Look for Cingrani to be an integral part of the LA bullpen in 2018.

COMP:  Justin Wilson, CHC

Wilson is a good comparison to Cingrani when we look at his 2016 platform year.  Wilson in 2016 had a 4.14 ERA in 66 games, a 1.330 WHIP, and 10K’s/9. Wilson received $2.7 million after that season. Cingrani earned 1.825 million last year. I think a figure similar to Wilson’s is a fair estimate for Cingrani.

PREDICTION:  $2.7 million

LUIS AVILAN, LH Relief Pitcher, 2nd Year Arb Eligible

Avilan has served as a steady groundball-inducing specialist out of the LA pen the last couple of years.  In 2017, Avilan pitched to a 2.93 ERA, 1.391 WHIP in 61 games, with only 46 innings pitched, underscoring the fact he served as more of a situational lefty this past season. Barring any unforeseen moves, Avilan, along with Cingrani, should serve as the Dodgers primary LH relievers in 2018.

COMP:  Antonio Bastardo, Free Agent

Bastardo’s platform season in 2014 is similar to Avilan’s platform season.  Bastardo posted a higher ERA at 3.94, a lower WHIP of 1.203, and had 81 Ks over 64 innings. For his efforts, he received a $3.1 million contract up from the $2 million he made the previous season.  Avilan earned $1.5 million last season. Looking at Bastardo’s $1.1 million raise after his platform season, I’d say it is fair to forecast the same for Avilan.

PREDICTION:  $2.6 million

PEDRO BAEZ, RH Relief Pitcher, 1st Year Arb Eligible

Baez has also had his shares of ups and downs as well.  He has shown flashes of brilliance and has frustrated the Dodgers and their fans at times with inconsistent performance out of the pen. Last year Pedro had a 2.95 ERA in 66 games, had a WHIP of 1.328, struck out 9/9 innings.  His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), though, was a troubling 4.44.  The hope is Baez will ultimately emerge as the dominant 8th innings set-up man we have all been hoping for.

COMP:  Pedro Strop, CHC 

Strop’s platform season in 2014 is similar to Baez’s platform season.  Strop put up a 2.21 ERA in 65 games, struck out 71, and posted a 1.066 WHIP.  Strop earned $2.525 million after that performance (he was a super two the year before so he had an extra year of arb eligibility).  Strop had a slight advantage in that regard.  In Strop’s super two years of eligibility, he received $1.325 million. The midpoint between these salaries is just under $2 million.  I say Baez will earn just over that.

PREDICTION:  $2.1 million

KIKE HERNANDEZ, Utility, 1st Year Arb Eligible

Kike has served as a valuable utilityman since arriving in Dodger blue in 2015.  In 2017 he only hit .215 but did bash 11 homers during the season (and some really big ones in the postseason), not to be filled all over the diamond with solid defense.  Against left-handed pitchers, he hit .270 with .946 OPS.  In 2018, Kike is expected to serve again as a valuable utility player.

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Although he had one of the most prolific offensive games in Dodger playoff history, Kike will once again be a valuable asset off the bench in 2018.  Kike was one of the main reasons the Dodgers were much better against left-handed starting pitchers in 2017, after struggling against southpaws in 2017.  If the Dodgers are going to be strong once versus southpaws, then Kike will need to have another big season as a lefty masher.

COMP:  Brock Holt  

Holt’s platform year in 2016 was a year removed from an All-Star year where he hit .280 as a regular.  He spent 2016 as a utility player who could handle both the infield and outfield.  That year he hit .255 with 7 HR.  After that season he earned $1.950 million.   I think Kike will come in slightly below that as Holt’s total numbers at his platform year are superior to Kike’s.

PREDICTION:  $1.75 million

Next: How can the Dodgers scrounge up cash to sign Yu Darvish?

Well, there you have it. It’s not an exact science, but it will be interesting to see if these comps hold up.  We should find out by February.    Special thanks to Baseball Reference.com for the statistical and salary data.