Hypothetical Dodgers Acquisitions For 2018

The Dodgers have never really been mentioned in the same breath as J.D. Martinez, and with what his agent, Scott Boras, is likely seeking (somewhere around 7 years/$210 million), that’s not going to happen.

Lorenzo Cain is a more likely free agent candidate, but still a long shot considering the Dodgers are only about $14 million below next year’s $197 million tax threshold, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and you gotta leave some wiggle room for mid-season acquisitions.

But what if the Dodgers did sign an expensive outfielder? First of all, they’d sail well past the tax threshold and would be required to not only pay a 50 percent tax on every dollar they go over, but they would also have their first-round draft pick moved back 10 spots in the following summer’s amateur draft.

The front office surely has one eye on next winter’s free agent crop and the other eye on the tax threshold as they try to maneuver their way safely to the 2018 feeding frenzy.

The Dodgers could make a trade for someone like Christian Yelich, who makes a mere $7.08 million against the cap for the next four years, plus an option for 2022.

A trade for Yelich would likely cost the Dodgers at least two of their top 10 prospects. With two catchers in their top eight, parting with either Keibert Ruiz or Will Smith would be a likely starting point.

Adding a pitcher like Mitchell White or Jordan Sheffield or Dennis Santana, plus Brock Stewart or Ross Stripling could probably get a deal done,

Sounds like a lot, yes, but consider that the Dodgers would have control over a proven All-Star caliber player for five more years, and that nothing is guaranteed with prospects, especially pitching prospects.

(Raise your hand if you’ve heard of more than two of these Dodgers pitching prospects: Dan Opperman, the 8^th overall pick in the 1987 draft, Bill Bene, 5^th overall in 1988, Ronnie Walden, 9^th overall in 1990, Ben Diggins, 17^th overall in 2000, Scott Elbert, 17^th overall in 2004, or Ethan Martin, 15^th overall in 2008.)

Adding a bona fide All-Star outfielder would take the Dodgers to the next level offensively.

Sliding a Martinez or Cain or Yelich into the third or fourth spot in the order would lengthen the lineup to a championship level, all but securing a sixth straight division title and making L.A. an overwhelming World Series favorite.

But what if the Dodgers …

Clayton Kershaw isn’t your older brother’s Clayton Kershaw, but he’s still one of the top five starters in the game.

Rich Hill is a fabulous No. 2, Alex Wood is a more-than-serviceable No. 3, and a whole bunch of guys will make up the Nos. 4 and 5 spots in the rotation in 2018.

Names like Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler and, eventually, Julio Urias will give the Dodgers a formidable staff.

But, what if they did go out and sign a Jake Arrieta or trade for a Chris Archer.

It would immediately vault the Dodgers to instant World Series favorites (see a theme developing here?).

Arrieta puts the Dodgers well above the tax threshold, and there is absolutely no way that’s happening with next winter’s free agent class looming on the horizon, so he’s out.

Chances of signing him are about as good as Yu Darvish pitching a stellar World Series Game 7 after getting shellacked in Game 2.

So what would it take to trade for Archer? See: Yelich. At first look, Archer’s numbers don’t really stand out. He went a pedestrian 10-12 in 2017, but he was playing for the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that won a total of 76 games.

It’s the 4.07 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 3.40 FIP and 101 ERA+ (where 100 is league average) that stand out. Those numbers certainly are not Yelich-return-type numbers.

In reality, either Ruiz or Smith, plus Stewart or Stripling, should be all it takes. The Rays are holding out for more, but with only two years of control, plus an option year, remaining for Archer, anything more would be overpaying for a slightly above average starter who would likely slot in at No. 3 or 4 in L.A.

The Dodgers probably won’t obtain an outfielder. They probably won’t obtain an impact starter.

So, what if the Dodgers …

The Dodgers return all their starting position players, as well as their top three starters (we’re not counting Darvish) and their closer from 2017.

They won a Major League-best 104 games last year, seven games better than any other National League team.

Offensively, the Dodgers were tied for sixth in the Majors in on-base percentage (.334), tied for seventh in slugging (.437), and were 8^th overall in on-base plus slugging (.771).

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The Dodgers reached base via walk 649 times in 2017, far and away the best mark in baseball.

On the pitching side, L.A. had the second lowest ERA (3.38), the lowest WHIP (1.155), allowed the fewest hits (1,226), the second fewest runs (580), the second fewest walks (442), had the third most saves (51), and struck out the fifth most batters (1,559) in the Majors.

Defensively, the Dodgers were above Major League average across the board.

So, with all that talent returning – Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig, Logan Forsythe, Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Yasmani Grandal, Austin Barnes, Kenley Jansen – as well as rookies Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo and the injured Urias all eventually joining the mix, the Dodgers are loaded for bear in 2018.

Next: Potential Non-Roster and MILB Gems In Dodgers System

So, while it may not be the sexiest thing, not making another trade or not signing another free agent aren’t bad things for the Dodgers between now and Spring Training.

In fact, it’s probably the wisest course to choose.