These LA Dodgers Might Be Future Hall of Famers

When I was a kid, I used to spend the night at my friend Danny’s house. We would stay up late talking baseball. Born and raised in the San Fernando Valley, it was all Dodgers all the time. We used to play a game called, How many current Major Leaguers will be elected to the Hall of Fame someday?

Not to date us, but in our day, it was Garvey, Lopes, Russell and Cey. It was Hank Aaron, Johnny Bench, Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, George Brett, Mike Schmidt and, yes, Reggie Jackson (get your rear end out of the way of Bill Russell’s double play attempt!). It seemed a lot easier to pick future Hall of Famers back then. Only the stars hit 40 home runs or won 20 games. It took a couple of tries, but I was actually at Don Sutton’s 300th career win.

Nowadays, it seems like home runs, RBIs, wins and ERA don’t matter. It’s all about OBP, wOBA, xFIP and DRS. Sounds more like a law firm than baseball statistics.

I think most baseball people agree. If he never threw another pitch in the Major Leagues, Clayton Edward Kershaw would still be a near lock to be invited to Cooperstown sometime around 2030.

Go to his Baseball Reference page, and before you begin scrolling down to some of the astounding stats about him, focus on the top of the page: MVP, Triple Crown, Gold Glove, Major League Player of the Year, three-time Cy Young Award winner, seven-time All-Star, five-time ERA leader.

And he’s still only 29!

Scroll down to Standard Pitching and look at all the bold-faced numbers. Those are league leading stats for a particular year. Thirty seven of them, to be exact.

Using some of today’s statistical information, Kershaw is ninth among active players in WAR with 59.4. Sure, that doesn’t sound as exciting as when Aaron finished the 1974 season with 713 home runs in his pursuit of Babe Ruth’s all-time record.

But consider that every one of the players ahead of Kershaw on the active WAR list has played a minimum of 13 seasons and is at least 33 years old. Kershaw has played 10 seasons and, yes, is only 29!

The Dodgers’ ace is the active leader in ERA (2.36) by a wide margin. The fascinating part of that is that the difference between Kershaw and second place Chris Sale (2.98) is greater than the gap between Sale and 17^th place Julio Teheran (3.59).

Kershaw leads all active pitchers in both WHIP (1.002) and adjusted ERA+ at 161 by a wide margin. The ERA+ gap between Kershaw (161) and second place Chris Sale (139) is equal to the gap between Sale and 15^th place CC Sabathia (117).

Kershaw is 11^th on the active wins list with 144, and every player ahead of him has played at least two more seasons and is at least two years older.

Of all active Major League pitchers, Clayton Kershaw is the closest thing to Hall of Fame sure thing.

Granted, it’s only been two-plus years, but Seager’s 162-game averages (26 home runs, 82 runs batted in, .305 avg., .374/.502/.876 slash line) compare very favorably to some Hall of Fame shortstops. Several Hall of Fame shortstops were inducted for their defensive prowess or were elected well before offense became a shortstop must.

So, let’s compare Seager’s averages to Hall of Fame shortstops of the past two decades (plus Ernie Banks, because he was, well, Ernie Banks). Banks was arguably one of the greatest shortstop of all time on both sides of the ball. He averaged 33 home runs, 105 RBIs per year and had a career .274 average and .330/.500/.830 slash line. Banks appeared in 14 All-Star games, won a Gold Glove award and was the National league MVP in both 1958 and 1959.

More recent Hall of Famers to compare to Seager include Barry Larkin, Cal Ripken Jr., Ozzie Smith, Alan Trammell and Robin Yount. Smith is the greatest defensive shortstop ever, but wasn’t much of a hitter (unless he was facing Tom Niedenfuer in Game 6 of the 1985 NLCS). Of  that group, Seager’s offensive prowess compares most favorably to … well, all of them.

Ten or 15 more years of this, and Seager is a shoo-in.

162 Game Averages

In 2017, Bellinger was an All-Star, won the Dodgers’ 18^th Rookie of the Year Award, clubbed a National League rookie record 39 home runs and drove in a team-high 97 runs. He batted .267 with a .352/.581/.933 slash line.

Granted, Bellinger hasn’t even played a full season yet, but his stock is rising faster than Amazon’s. While Bellinger likely will never be compared to Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial or Jimmie Foxx, his average statistical comparisons might some day stand up to recent Hall of Fame inductees Jeff Bagwell, Orlando Cepeda, Willie McCovey, Eddie Murray and Tony Perez.

162 Game Averages  *132 games total

The Dodgers actually have three candidates in this category.  Kenley Jansen is a two-time All-Star and was named MLB Reliever of the Year in 2016 and 2017. His cut fastball has been compared to that of arguably the greatest cutter ever, that of a pretty good soon-to-be Hall of Fame reliever named Mariano Rivera.

Jansen’s numbers are on pace with those of Rivera, as well as Hall of Famers Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter.

Five more seasons like the last couple of years would give Jansen more than 400 saves and vault him into the top five all time.

Career totals   *plus 197 wins