Dodgers Projected Bullpen and High Leverage Situation

The bullpen. It is probably the most volatile and unpredictable piece of a major league baseball team.  Even for a team that was the World Series runner up and likely features the best closer in baseball, there are several question marks as we are about to enter Dodgers 2018 spring training.

We just gave you a look at the Dodgers 25-Man Roster, now let’s dive a little deeper and further examine the bullpen specifically. There are traditional stats that we use to evaluate pitchers like wins/losses, ERA, WHIP, and for relievers, saves of course.  Sabermetrics has given us Field Independent Pitching (FIP), Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), and Wins Above Replacement.  These have become more commonplace in mainstream baseball circles the past few seasons.  However, none of these tools provide the best metric to evaluate how relievers perform in high leverage situations; the save is not the end all.  Many times, the closer comes into the ninth to shut down the opposition, while no one was on base and the team had a comfortable lead.  How do we evaluate a relievers performance in a high leverage, pressure packed situation?

I don’t have the complete answer for you, but I offer a starting point.  The Leverage Index.  Otherwise known as LI, or pLI, or inLI, gmLI, or exLI!  These offer descriptive snapshots of the leverage situation that the reliever entered the game under.  Basically, the index takes into account the inning the reliever entered, how many runners were on base, and the score of the game at the time.  Utilizing this index places that reliever’s stats in a clearer context, or at least this author thinks so.  I will utilize the pLI, which is the Average Leverage Index.  A pLI of 1 indicates the pitcher is average, while a pLI above 1 is above average, and a pLI below 1 is below average.  If you would like to delve more into the various Leverage Index tools, go check out FanGraphs.

In order to set a baseline of understanding of LI/pLI, let’s start with the best closer in baseball, LA’s very own Kenley Jansen.

The Closer: KENLEY JANSEN

“Caliiiiforrrrrnia Looove”  I can just here Kenley’s entrance song blaring over the Dodger loudspeaker come opening day.  Jansen was dominant, again, in 2017.  Jansen had 41 saves in 68.1 innings, with a 1.32 ERA, and an amazing strikeout rate of 14.36/9 innings.  That’s 109 strikeouts in 68.1 innings, with only 7 walks by the way!  We know he is dominant.  So lets look at his pLI to help set the baseline.

Jansen’s pLI in 2017 was 1.68 (his career pLI is 1.55).  Looking to the previous season provides us a relatively recent example of how the pitcher fared in a high leverage situation, and coupled with his stats, will show his production in these situations.  This again is far from perfect, but provides us fans a good starting point.  So, we can derive from this very cursory analysis that Jansen was quite well above average in terms of appearing in high leverage situations, and as we all know, did quite well in these situations by looking at his stats.  Look at Jansen’s other stats such as FIP and WAR, and you will also see his dominance.  But of course, you do not need to do that since we all know Jansen is among the best in the game.  However, let’s keep Jansen’s 1.68 pLI in mind as we look at the Dodgers non-Jansen relievers.

The Primary (this is the year) Right Handed Set-Up Man:  PEDRO BAEZ   

With Brandon Morrow departing via free agency to the Cubs, this is the year that Baez must step up and become the dominant 8th inning guy this team needs more than ever.  Baez pitched in 64 innings, posted a 2.95 ERA, struck 64 batters, but also walked 29.  Baez also allowed 9 HR’s last season.  Baez seemed to allow these at the most inopportune times.  Baez’s pLI was an above average 1.31.  Do to the negative attention Baez has received for not seizing the 8th inning set-up role (and slumping down the stretch),  he really did not fare that bad for a guy thrust into high leverage situations.  Not every reliever can be Kenley Jansen!  Baez needs to work on his pitch sequencing and speed up his delivery, but lets not forget this guy was converted into a pitcher in 2012.  His career pLI is 1.08, as he has been placed into higher leverage roles each season.  He should continue to get better, and be the shutdown right handed set up man to Jansen.

Right Handed Setup Man:  JOSH FIELDS 

Fields will likely be given first shot in spring training to be the secondary right handed set up man.  Although, it is worth noting, other than Jansen, the roles in Dave Roberts’ bullpen are loosely assigned, and can change based on the matchup.  Fields pitched to a 2.84 ERA in 57 games, struck out 60, and posted a most excellent 0.96 WHIP.  Fields weakness, like Baez, was the HR ball.  Fields served up 10 in 57 innings.  Like Baez, he is another guy that throws gas, so that is a byproduct of his game.  Fields pLI for 2017 was 0.91, a below average rating.  To illuminate, Fields pitched well, but not always in the most pressure packed situations.  To reiterate, this is not necessarily predictive of how Fields will fare next year, but it gives us an idea of what situations he has performed well in to date.

The Wildcard:  TOM KOEHLER

There seems to be at least one in the Dodger bullpen every year.  A project.  A starting pitcher converted into a reliever.  Last year it was Brandon Morrow.  Two years ago it was Joe Blanton.  This year it is Koehler.  Koehler pitched in only 14 games of relief after he was traded by Miami to Toronto, so his relief work is a small sample size.  Koehler had a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings of relief, with 11Ks and 3 walks.  BaseballReference.com provided a break down on Koehler’s leverage work with the Blue Jays. Koehler posted a 1.08 LI, suggesting he has some value in high leverage situations when looking at his limited numbers out of the pen from last season.  Again, small sample size, but the Dodgers like his stuff enough to believe it will play up out of the bullpen full-time.

Returning Left handed Reliever:  TONY CINGRANI

Cingrani came over at a deadline trade that has made the front office look brilliant thus far.  With the Dodgers, Cingrani pitched 19.1 innings across 22 games, and posted a 2.79 ERA, with an outstanding 1.08 WHIP.  Cingrani has been used as a situational lefty, but can also go multiple innings if needed as he is also a converted starter.  Cingrani’s LI rating tells a different story, maybe an inconclusive one.  In his short Dodger career so far, Cingrani’s LI during his Dodger stint sat at .68.  Look for Cingrani to be tested early in the season, as the Dodgers will look for his workload and responsibility to increase.

The Lefthanded Newcomer:  SCOTT ALEXANDER 

In what might go down as one of the most underrated trades of this slow offseason, the trade that brought Alexander to the Dodgers will provide the club with a talented reliever that nearly led MLB in ground ball rate.  Alexander appeared in 58 games and tossed 69 innings with a 2.48

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ERA, and a respectable 1.30 WHIP.  Alexander had a 1.18 pLI, suggesting he is a reliever who can handle the pressure, and get a ground ball as well!  Alexander has a chance to play a key role in the Dodger bullpen as the primary lefty, who can handle multiple innings and varied situations.

This is by no means meant to be a definitive prediction of how the Dodger bullpen will handle pressure in 2018.  This simply tells us how the current batch of Dodgers relievers MAY  handle the pressure.  Of course, there will be injuries.

Next: LA's Next Top 100 Prospects?

Mangement may decide to carry eight relievers.  Adam Liberatore and/or Yimi Garcia could make the club out of spring training.  And there may be one more trade up the front office’s sleeve.  LI is one tool of many that can be used to assess relievers.  Further discussion and research is warranted, as the quest continues to build the best bullpen.