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Dodgers: 3 Factors That Could Make or Break 2018 Season
The 2017 Dodgers surprised many by how well they did with the roster they started with and the one they ended up with. A lot of unexpected things happened, both positive and negative, that led the team further than any other Dodger team in the last 29 years. If they lost by one game, what then is stopping them from winning it all in 2018?
The Dodgers 2017 season started with Logan Forsythe hitting leadoff, Andrew Toles in left, and Cody Bellinger, Brandon Morrow and Chris Taylor in the minors. Yasmani Grandal was definitely the starting catcher, Clayton Kershaw looked healthy as ever, and Adrian Gonzalez was in the middle of the lineup as always.
By the end, Taylor became the full-time center fielder and leadoff hitter, Cody Bellinger replaced Gonzalez, Austin Barnes replaced Grandal, Kershaw got hurt (again), and Brandon Morrow became instrumental in the playoff run. Now that the dust has settled, does that settle the storm that has been the Dodgers roster over the last two years?
Sophomore Slumps?
The Dodgers had a monster rookie contribution from the only actual rookie in this group, Cody Bellinger. Chris Taylor, Alex Wood, and Austin Barnes are technically not rookies but 2017 was their first season with substantial playing time in a starting role. All three had fantastic seasons, but as is with many breakouts and rookies everyone wonders if they can keep it up.
Bellinger surprised the league with his ability to adapt to big league pitching and hit virtually anything in the strike zone. With exception to the hard curve ball down and in, which killed the Dodgers lefties in the World Series. If Bellinger can adjust his swing to cover that part of the plate, he’ll put up big numbers again in 2018.
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Alex Wood’s first half last season was unbelievable. His second half made it believable. The lefty showed heavy signs of fatigue with his shoulder issues and inability to locate down in the zone. That brings up concerns about whether he can sustain his effectiveness through an entire season. If he maintains his velocity and location, he’ll be in contention with Rich Hill for the number two spot. Otherwise, it’s easy to see him break even with an ERA in the high 3’s, low 4’s.
Chris Taylor’s discipline and plate coverage keeps his 2018 expectations optimistic. His average may dip naturally with more at-bats, but he should remain productive both with the bat and with his legs. Austin Barnes struggled for the first time all season in the World Series. His short, compact swing makes it hard for him to slump for an extended period, which looks optimistic. The one concern is how opposing defenses play him.
Clayton Kershaw Cy Young?
It may have slipped a few minds, but Clayton Kershaw hasn’t won a Cy Young Award in three seasons. Yes, much of that has to do with his time missed due to injury, but it’s still bizarre. Kershaw put up solid numbers again in 2017, and finished second to Max Scherzer, who will probably regress in 2018 giving Kershaw a good shot at re-claiming the title. However, two things may stand in his way.
First, is his back. He’s missed extended time the past two seasons because of a back injuries (which has been noted to be unrelated). As he enters his age 30 season, there has to be concerns about whether a third time is not the charm, and he’ll have to undergo surgery that would effectively end his season. Kershaw’s funky delivery, though effective, may put a lot of stress on his back, which could affect his effort to stay healthy negatively. Luckily, Kershaw takes extremely good care of his body, which has minimized the damage so far.
The second is the spike in home runs he surrendered in 2017. Kershaw gave up a career high 23 home runs, at a rate of 1.2 per nine innings. Earlier in the season, hitters were teeing up his fastball. As the season progressed, no matter how Kershaw adjusted, if a hitter sat on just one of his pitches it would be for solid contact. It’s no secret that his slider had a tendency of flattening out occasionally. His fastball doesn’t have the late life or movement it did three years ago, and he’s relied less on his curve ball because he’s struggled locating it the last two seasons at least. He’s developed a cutter but it isn’t a swing and miss pitch and looks very similar to a flat slider.
Rookie Contributions
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Like the last two seasons, the Dodgers need solid contributions from their rookies. This year, it looks like Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo will enjoy most of the limelight. Buehler is instrumental if the Dodger aren’t able to land Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta (which is very likely). As a power right-handed starter, he’ll be able to balance out a rotation that only has Kenta Maeda as a righty.
Alex Verdugo’s contribution would be great but is not necessary. He has a long list of veterans ahead of him for the left field spot, and if all of them fail then the Dodgers are in trouble anyway. Still, it’ll be helpful to know what he can do at the Major League level going forward.
Next: Will Kershaw Think Twice about Opting Out?
There are plenty of other things that can make or break the Dodgers 2018 season. Justin Turner remaining healthy and productive, Yasiel Puig building on his successful 2017 campaign, and even if a healthy Matt Kemp can contribute (if he stays). However, if the factors mentioned above are overcome by the players the Dodgers will enjoy 2018.