Dodgers Need to Address Green Elephant in the Room

The 2018 MLB free agent class is one reason we are told for teams saving their payroll this year. Front offices have earmarked a budget to land one or more star players that will be available next winter. Dodger fans don’t have to look far to see a possible member of that class either. Perhaps, if he chooses, one of those who’ll be most sought after will be the Dodgers’ own ace.

Much attention has been given to the Los Angeles Dodgers payroll this year. Inquiring minds want to know if there will be enough spending cash budgeted under the vaunted Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the Dodgers to be able to add a substantial free-agent.

Fans, analysts, and even agents have all winter long been scrutinizing MLB teams’ potential for spending and apparent lack thereof in some cases. Dodger fans in particular feel paralyzed by the payroll freeze as they wait impatiently for a sign of fiscal fortitude from their front office. A right-handed power arm with potential to be a true number two starter in their rotation is perceived to be the tipping point in sending the Dodgers over the top as a World Series favorite this season. Fear of being penalized for one more consecutive year by baseball’s luxury tax has the Dodger brass keeping their check book snugly in their breast pocket for now, though.

Next year’s astoundingly deep and talented free agent class is the impetus for all this penny- pinching. At least that’s the company line that’s been toed. Teams are saving their payroll budget to land one of big fish that will be available then, allegedly. We are under the assumption that Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and even Clayton Kershaw, if he chooses to exercise his option after the upcoming season, are all going to be out there on the hypothetical free agent market looking to accept their fortunes.

However, there is no guarantee that DC doesn’t just extend Harper for a half a billion dollars. Or something to that extent happening in Baltimore with Machado. Kershaw may just stay in Los Angeles for two more years. Who knows? That is the bothersome variable to me. We are all just expecting that next year’s free agent class is going to be the best in baseball history, but what if it’s not? It could just be another wonky winter.

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Or more likely the opposite happens. Next off-season stands to be the most insane epic baseball free agency frenzy of all time. That would mean that player salaries are soaring to astronomical heights driven by studs like Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, and Manny Machado among others. If that’s the case, then signing a J.D. Martinez, a Jake Arrieta, an – I don’t know – Yu Darvish right now in the calm before the storm would be sound advice. Team owners should prefer to pay the current down market value for the player as opposed to the inevitable demands of the coming agent-driven hailstorm that will be next year’s off-season.

Of course if you’re the Dodgers, you plan to do everything on earth to make sure you can beat or match any offer Kershaw gets if he becomes a free agent after this season. Is that the end game, though? There are some big names that could potentially sign record-setting deals, but there are 30 teams and nowhere near that many impact free agents. For the Dodgers to go after Kershaw and another premiere free agent does not seem realistic. With a host of young Dodgers coming up and approaching arbitration raises, if anything, the Dodgers might as well shun free agents altogether in the coming years.

There is no reason to spend just to spend. I do not applaud just throwing money at a problem, but let’s be really real for a second; the Dodgers’ owners are very well-to-do. I imagine they have lunch some days that costs more than my rent.

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Pointing to next year’s free agents-to-be as an excuse offers no solace. Next year’s market will inevitably have players and their agents in the driver’s seat, setting their price. You would think that teams recognize the player advantage coming next off-season and they exploit this winter’s down market for free agents while fortune favors them.

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