Dodgers: Rich Hill Proving his Career Renaissance is no Fluke

Rich Hill seemingly came out of nowhere to revive his career.  During his time with the Dodgers, Hill has shown his revival is no fluke.

Rich Hill was better than Clayton Kershaw in 2017 in one key area, his 11.01 K/9 was good for 7^th best in the majors (minimum 100 innings pitched). Kershaw was 13^th with 10.39 K/9. While a decrease in velocity for Hill’s fastball might be a huge cause for concern, I look for the crafty veteran to continue his renaissance as a pitcher while maybe working on a secret weapon to be a key contributor to the Dodgers’ starting rotation in 2018.

89 mph heater

Rich Hill saw the velocity drop on his four-seam fastball down from 91 mph in 2016, to 89 mph in 2017. That doesn’t seem like much, but it makes a world of a difference allowing a hitter to be able to catch up to it. Hill allowed 18 home runs last season, 13 of which were off that fastball (in 229 at-bats). For comparison, Hill allowed only 2 homers off the fastball in 2016 (in 158 at-bats). Maybe his pitch sequencing faltered at times which allowed hitters to sit on his fastball for those bombs? No matter the case, his elite curveball has allowed him to achieve those high K/9 numbers. The curveball isn’t the only thing that can help off-set the fastball this season.

Enter the cutter

The diminishing fastball velocity is a huge red flag for a soon to be 38-year-old Rich Hill coming into the season. He has notoriously been a fastball/curveball pitcher. But last summer, he and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt worked on a new pitch, a cut fastball (cutter) that was successful:

Yes, it was a small sample size since Hill didn’t throw the pitch a lot compared to his fastball and curveball. He adopted it late in the season. If Hill and Honeycutt can continue working on this third pitch this spring, that would be another pitch to keep hitters off balance and allow him to be more successful.

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Can only go so far

Manager Dave Roberts has done an excellent job managing the workload of his pitchers. He doesn’t push his guys to extreme pitch counts, instead relying on his bullpen to be the bridge to his closer. Especially so for his veteran Hill. One might expect for Hill’s numbers to be worse in the second half of the season due to fatigue and age. Wrong. The last two seasons combined, Hill has posted a better ERA in the second half (2.42) than the first half (2.97). He was really good in the 2017 playoffs also, 2.55 ERA in 17.2 IP with 24 Ks. The only way Hill gets to be this effective is if Roberts keeps asking him for about 5-6 innings pitched for each start. Look for this to continue in 2018.

Mr. Blister

Blisters on his pitching hand have been the kryptonite to his renaissance the last couple seasons. While it seemed like the issue got better in the latter part of the season, the injury bug has always been the wild-card for the aging Hill. How healthy can he stay in 2018? That is why the front office has been in on the Yu Darvish sweepstakes. Hill cannot be counted on for a full season. But while Hill is on the bump, he is very effective. Roberts will take that all day, every day.

What to expect

Hill threw 135.2 innings in 25 games started in 2017, the most in ten seasons. I don’t see Roberts expecting too much more from his veteran southpaw. With his strong K/9 and decent walk rate (average 2.97 BB/9 the last two seasons), I see Hill’s numbers very much in line with what he posted last season.

Next: The Dodgers must clear space for Yu Darvish

If the cutter is indeed mixed in much more, I can see Hill putting together a season consisting of about 12 wins, 170 Ks and a 3.30 ERA in 150 IP. These would be excellent numbers for a number three starter behind Alex Wood and Kershaw, even better production as the fourth guy if the Dodgers sign Darvish. Hill’s continued rebirth as a pitcher will help keep the Dodger pitching staff in the upper echelon in 2018.