Dodgers: Looking Ahead to the Monster 2018 Free Agent Class

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PHOENIX, AZ – MAY 13: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals hits a solo home run in the third inning of the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on May 13, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /

Although it’s early in the Dodgers’ season, the allure of next year’s monster free agent class is just too tantalizing to wait until October. Here is a breakdown of who will be available this winter and who makes sense for the Dodgers.

Assuming the Dodgers don’t make any in-season acquisitions that take them over the salary cap, they will reset the luxury tax for 2019. This will take their penalty from 50% down to 20%. Given the Front Office’s lack of off-season upgrades, this clearly seemed to be the marching orders going into 2018.

Resetting the penalty frees up a nice stockpile of cash for the Dodgers to make some big moves to build around a solid core of young talent. But the biggest question may be whether their ace left-hander, Clayton Kershaw opts out of his contract, and if so, how much money are the Dodgers willing to commit to bring him back.

BALTIMORE, MD – APRIL 28: Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles doubles in two runs in the seventh inning during a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 28, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

Best in Class

Unless you’ve been under a rock, you know that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are expected to be the most sought-after players this off-season. Kershaw would be in this same category, but his status is still technically undecided. As I’ve previously written, I don’t anticipate the Dodgers as serious contenders for Harper or Machado.

Manny Machado

Manny Machado is a bad fit for the Dodgers. Seager has short locked down and will be under team control through 2021. Or longer if they have the sense to sign him to an extension rather than wait for him to hit free agency at 27. Although Seager just went down with a season-ending injury, he’s young. He just turned 24 in April, and I anticipate a full (and hopefully speedy) recovery. I don’t see the Dodgers shifting Seager to third to free up short for Machado. Besides, the Dodgers already have Turner signed to play third through 2020.

While it’s possible the Dodgers could try to move Turner to make room for Machado at third, it’s unlikely that Machado would be amenable to that. He has already expressed his clear desire to play shortstop. Given that Machado is going to get his money one way or the other, it stands to reason that he’ll go with a team who will play him where he wants to play. Someone will sign Manny to play short, but it won’t be the Dodgers.

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper presents a more interesting possibility but still seems doubtful. The Dodgers mercurial right fielder, Yasiel Puig, will be a free agent after this year as well. Depending on how Puig plays (and behaves) this year, the Dodgers may be inclined to stick with Puig. There is no doubt that Harper would be an upgrade over Puig. But with speculation that Harper could command baseball’s first 400 million dollar contract, that would be quite an expensive upgrade. Is Harper enough of an upgrade to justify the price tag?

For all his hype, Harper has only managed to put up one monster season. Harper’s 2015 was truly a great season, but he hasn’t come close to putting up those numbers in any other season before or since. In fact, if you take away that one season and compare Harper and Puig, their numbers look closer than one might expect. From 2013 to 2017, Puig played 587 games with 15.9 WAR. From 2012 to 2017 (excluding 2015), Harper played 655 games with 16.2 WAR.

Harper has certainly demonstrated an ability to play at an elite level. But he’s only managed to stay healthy enough to show how those numbers would look over an entire season once. I’m not sure the Front Office would commit that kind of money to Harper given his propensity for injury. (Caveat: I suppose one could argue that this Front Office might just jump at the chance to sign an injury-prone super-star and then tout their depth when he inevitably gets injured.)

CHICAGO, IL – MAY 04: Brian Dozier #2 of the Minnesota Twins bats against the Chicago White Soxat Guaranteed Rate Field on May 4, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. The Twins defeated the White Sox 6-4. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

More Pressing Needs

While Harper and Machado will likely command the most attention and the biggest contracts, the Dodgers have better places to spend their free agent dollars. I think the primary focus for the Dodgers will be upgrading at second base, bolstering the bullpen and getting another front of the rotation starter.

Second Base

The Dodgers have had a revolving door at second base for several years now. Dee Gordon gave way to Howie Kendrick. Howie Kendrick gave way to Logan Forsythe. Silver Fox, Chase Utley, logging in far more innings than anyone ever anticipated. And all the while you still get the sense they don’t have the second baseman they truly desire.

The Dodgers aggressively pursued Brian Dozier during the off-season but couldn’t come to terms with the Twins. Barring a contract extension, Dozier will be a free agent next year. Joining him in free agency will be a two-time gold glove and former NL batting champion, D.J. LeMahieu. I find it hard to believe the Dodgers won’t end up signing one of them to plug this hole in the infield finally.

As a long shot, I suppose if Logan Forsythe gets healthy and plays like the player who averaged 4.3 WAR for the Rays in 2015 and 2016, the Dodgers could look to re-sign Forsythe. But I still think the most likely candidate is Dozier. The Dodgers wanted to steal him away from Minnesota so badly, but they just wouldn’t bite at Jose De Leon. I think they’ll pay up to get him now.

The Bullpen

As has been quite evident from the last few seasons, as the bullpen goes, so go the Dodgers. The biggest struggle they’ve had in recent years is building the bridge to bullpen heavyweight, Kenley Jansen. When the arms between the starting pitcher and the ace closer were effective, the Dodgers were a juggernaut. When they were ineffective, the Dodgers were a train wreck.

Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt worked wonders with low-cost reclamation projects, Joe Blanton and Brandon Morrow. They both did great work in set-up roles and high leverage situations. The Dodgers were hoping to strike gold again with Tom Koehler and Scott Alexander. Koehler is on the 60-day DL and is nowhere near ready to pitch. Alexander was recently called back up after being largely ineffective in his first stint with the parent club.

The free agent market is going to be flush with relievers next year. If the Dodgers wanted to spend some of their luxury tax savings bolstering the bullpen, they’d have a lot of names to choose from. Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Craig Kimbrel, and Cody Allen will all be available. It wasn’t that long ago that the Dodgers tried to corner the closer market by trading for the flamethrower, Aroldis Chapman, before being scared off by allegations of domestic abuse. Pair any one of these arms with Jansen, and you’ve got to like your bullpen.

Starting Rotation

For the Dodgers, any conversation about the 2018 off-season has to start and end with Clayton Kershaw. He has another two years on his current contract which would pay him $65 million. Of course, as EVERYONE knows, Kershaw has the option to opt out of his contract at the end of this year. It would mark the first time in his career that he would be a free agent. This has been written about ad nauseam since he first signed the contract after the 2013 season.

Assuming Kershaw’s latest trip to the Disabled List is truly nothing more than minor tendinitis and not the precursor to some to major season-ending arm issue, I think he opts out at the end of the year. His recent string of seasons with a trip to the DL has probably lowered the ceiling on what he may have been able to re-sign for at one point. But he should still be able to sign a better contract and for more than he’d probably get in 2021 when he’s two more years on the wrong side of 30.

Even with his time on the DL, Kershaw hasn’t finished less than 5th in Cy Young voting for the last seven years. Coming in second to Max Scherzer as recently as last year. Even if you want to argue that he’s not “the best pitcher on the planet” at this moment, he’s still clearly one of the elite. And certainly within striking distance of reclaiming that title. On a side note, a little run support wouldn’t hurt!

LOS ANGELES, CA – APRIL 20: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers keeps his arm warm before pitching in the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Dodger Stadium on April 20, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

Kershaw’s Not Done Yet

Clayton Kershaw has been the franchise player for almost a decade now. As it stands, he’ll go down as one of the greatest pitchers in Dodger’s history. I expect he’ll continue to be an elite pitcher for years to come. And he’ll still land on the DL from time to time. Most players do. But let’s not forget that he was on the DL for over a month in 2014 and still managed to win the Cy Young and the MVP award.

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Clayton Kershaw has set the bar so high, that anything short of perfection and people start assuming he’s done. Kershaw just turned 30 in March. You can expect that even if he’s healthy, he’ll lose a few ticks off his velocity as he ages. That’s what generally happens to most pitchers. Guys like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson were generally considered freaks because… they were freaks. But plenty of great pitchers continued to be elite after losing a few miles off their fastball. I don’t see why Kershaw wouldn’t be the same.

Kershaw is an elite competitor, and the elite competitors learn to adjust. Just imagine if he finally adds a fourth pitch into the mix on a regular basis. Pitchers have been adding pitches to make up for falling velocity since forever. Maybe someone should remind the Dodgers that they have one of the all-time great lefty screwball pitchers sitting in their broadcast booth. Let Fernando pass on the lessons he learned from Bobby Castillo.

The Front Office

The Front Office has shown a propensity for loading up on injury-prone pitchers and then patting themselves on the back for their depth when they shockingly get injured. Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir… all spring to mind. If you’re going to give a player the benefit of the doubt, give it to Kershaw. He earned it. He finished sixth in WAR for pitchers last season and finished in the top three for six seasons before that. He’s proven he’s a major contributor even in years he gets injured.

Next: Even the stats say the Dodgers are just an average team

When current ownership bid for the Dodgers, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reported that a source said that Guggenheim Partners “didn’t want to win [the bidding] by a field goal […] They wanted to win by two touchdowns.” Let’s hope they remember that mentality when it comes time to re-sign Kershaw.

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