Dodgers: Looking Ahead to the Monster 2018 Free Agent Class

Although it’s early in the Dodgers’ season, the allure of next year’s monster free agent class is just too tantalizing to wait until October.  Here is a breakdown of who will be available this winter and who makes sense for the Dodgers.

Assuming the Dodgers don’t make any in-season acquisitions that take them over the salary cap, they will reset the luxury tax for 2019.  This will take their penalty from 50% down to 20%. Given the Front Office’s lack of off-season upgrades, this clearly seemed to be the marching orders going into 2018.

Resetting the penalty frees up a nice stockpile of cash for the Dodgers to make some big moves to build around a solid core of young talent.  But the biggest question may be whether their ace left-hander, Clayton Kershaw opts out of his contract, and if so, how much money are the Dodgers willing to commit to bring him back.

Best in Class

Unless you’ve been under a rock, you know that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are expected to be the most sought-after players this off-season.  Kershaw would be in this same category, but his status is still technically undecided.  As I’ve previously written, I don’t anticipate the Dodgers as serious contenders for Harper or Machado.

Manny Machado

Manny Machado is a bad fit for the Dodgers.  Seager has short locked down and will be under team control through 2021.  Or longer if they have the sense to sign him to an extension rather than wait for him to hit free agency at 27.  Although Seager just went down with a season-ending injury, he’s young.  He just turned 24 in April, and I anticipate a full (and hopefully speedy) recovery.  I don’t see the Dodgers shifting Seager to third to free up short for Machado.  Besides, the Dodgers already have Turner signed to play third through 2020.

While it’s possible the Dodgers could try to move Turner to make room for Machado at third, it’s unlikely that Machado would be amenable to that.  He has already expressed his clear desire to play shortstop.  Given that Machado is going to get his money one way or the other, it stands to reason that he’ll go with a team who will play him where he wants to play.  Someone will sign Manny to play short, but it won’t be the Dodgers.

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper presents a more interesting possibility but still seems doubtful.  The Dodgers mercurial right fielder, Yasiel Puig, will be a free agent after this year as well.  Depending on how Puig plays (and behaves) this year, the Dodgers may be inclined to stick with Puig.  There is no doubt that Harper would be an upgrade over Puig.  But with speculation that Harper could command baseball’s first 400 million dollar contract, that would be quite an expensive upgrade.  Is Harper enough of an upgrade to justify the price tag?

For all his hype, Harper has only managed to put up one monster season.  Harper’s 2015 was truly a great season, but he hasn’t come close to putting up those numbers in any other season before or since.  In fact, if you take away that one season and compare Harper and Puig, their numbers look closer than one might expect.  From 2013 to 2017, Puig played 587 games with 15.9 WAR.  From 2012 to 2017 (excluding 2015), Harper played 655 games with 16.2 WAR.

Harper has certainly demonstrated an ability to play at an elite level.  But he’s only managed to stay healthy enough to show how those numbers would look over an entire season once.  I’m not sure the Front Office would commit that kind of money to Harper given his propensity for injury.  (Caveat: I suppose one could argue that this Front Office might just jump at the chance to sign an injury-prone super-star and then tout their depth when he inevitably gets injured.)

More Pressing Needs

While Harper and Machado will likely command the most attention and the biggest contracts, the Dodgers have better places to spend their free agent dollars.  I think the primary focus for the Dodgers will be upgrading at second base, bolstering the bullpen and getting another front of the rotation starter.

Second Base

The Dodgers have had a revolving door at second base for several years now.  Dee Gordon gave way to Howie Kendrick.  Howie Kendrick gave way to Logan Forsythe.  Silver Fox, Chase Utley, logging in far more innings than anyone ever anticipated.  And all the while you still get the sense they don’t have the second baseman they truly desire.

The Dodgers aggressively pursued Brian Dozier during the off-season but couldn’t come to terms with the Twins.  Barring a contract extension, Dozier will be a free agent next year.  Joining him in free agency will be a two-time gold glove and former NL batting champion, D.J. LeMahieu.  I find it hard to believe the Dodgers won’t end up signing one of them to plug this hole in the infield finally.

As a long shot, I suppose if Logan Forsythe gets healthy and plays like the player who averaged 4.3 WAR for the Rays in 2015 and 2016, the Dodgers could look to re-sign Forsythe.  But I still think the most likely candidate is Dozier.  The Dodgers wanted to steal him away from Minnesota so badly, but they just wouldn’t bite at Jose De Leon.  I think they’ll pay up to get him now.

The Bullpen

As has been quite evident from the last few seasons, as the bullpen goes, so go the Dodgers.  The biggest struggle they’ve had in recent years is building the bridge to bullpen heavyweight, Kenley Jansen.  When the arms between the starting pitcher and the ace closer were effective, the Dodgers were a juggernaut.  When they were ineffective, the Dodgers were a train wreck.

Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt worked wonders with low-cost reclamation projects, Joe Blanton and Brandon Morrow.  They both did great work in set-up roles and high leverage situations.  The Dodgers were hoping to strike gold again with Tom Koehler and Scott Alexander.  Koehler is on the   60-day DL and is nowhere near ready to pitch.  Alexander was recently called back up after being largely ineffective in his first stint with the parent club.

The free agent market is going to be flush with relievers next year.  If the Dodgers wanted to spend some of their luxury tax savings bolstering the bullpen, they’d have a lot of names to choose from.  Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Craig Kimbrel, and Cody Allen will all be available.  It wasn’t that long ago that the Dodgers tried to corner the closer market by trading for the flamethrower, Aroldis Chapman, before being scared off by allegations of domestic abuse.  Pair any one of these arms with Jansen, and you’ve got to like your bullpen.

Starting Rotation

For the Dodgers, any conversation about the 2018 off-season has to start and end with Clayton Kershaw.  He has another two years on his current contract which would pay him $65 million.  Of course, as EVERYONE knows, Kershaw has the option to opt out of his contract at the end of this year.  It would mark the first time in his career that he would be a free agent.  This has been written about ad nauseam since he first signed the contract after the 2013 season.

Assuming Kershaw’s latest trip to the Disabled List is truly nothing more than minor tendinitis and not the precursor to some to major season-ending arm issue, I think he opts out at the end of the year.  His recent string of seasons with a trip to the DL has probably lowered the ceiling on what he may have been able to re-sign for at one point.  But he should still be able to sign a better contract and for more than he’d probably get in 2021 when he’s two more years on the wrong side of 30.

Even with his time on the DL, Kershaw hasn’t finished less than 5th in Cy Young voting for the last seven years.  Coming in second to Max Scherzer as recently as last year.  Even if you want to argue that he’s not “the best pitcher on the planet” at this moment, he’s still clearly one of the elite.  And certainly within striking distance of reclaiming that title.  On a side note, a little run support wouldn’t hurt!