Dodgers: The Real Kenley Jansen has Finally Shown Up

After a season of struggles both on an off the field, the Dodgers were left guessing as to which version of Kenley Jansen would show up for the postseason. But, three appearances into the playoffs and Jansen has looked dominant, perhaps returning to the form that made him so famous amongst fans and frightening for opposing hitters.

Flashback just three weeks ago and Jansen instilled little confidence in the faithful that he could close out games. After returning from another bout with a heart condition that has plagued him in the past, Kenley doubled his career high for home runs surrendered- a career low in moral.

But, being a team leader and clubhouse figure, Jansen had to brave the choppy waters and continue to pitch. Push as he did, his numbers plummeted to more career lows.

In 71.2 innings, Jansen posted a 129 ERA+ and 3.01 ERA, the second worst and worst totals he has ever posted. Kenley, who is known for his ability to strike batters out, registered the lowest K/9 rate in his career at 10.3- the previous low for him was 13.0.

The problem was persistent throughout the season and his struggles seemed to be rooted in his velocity which he struggled to maintain for almost the entire season. Jansen lost almost a mile per hour on his signature cutter just a season after losing another mile per hour.

Since 2016, Kenley has consistently regressed in velocity and the result was the worst season in his career.

Leading into the postseason these results were discouraging. Fans did not know which version of Jansen they would see come October and the faith Dave Roberts had was cited as, “cautious.”

But, Jansen knew he needed to be better. He knew that to give his team a chance to win he would have to figure out a way to return to his 2017 self. And, after just three appearances in the postseason, it appears Kenley Jansen has turned around his 2018 misfortune.

I know your initial thought: this is an incredibly quick statement with an incredibly quick sample size. How can you make the claim that Jansen is dominant again after seeing him just three times since the postseason started? Allow me to explain.

Kenley Jansen is effective because of his movement. The amount of cut he can put on his cutter and the velocity he can add to that is what makes him effective. Compound those two things with the ability to locate his pitches, something he was not able to do in the regular season, and Jansen is elite.

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That brings me to my first piece of evidence: movement. Jansen has appeared in just three games this postseason but his movement plus gravity in inches is better now than it was in the regular season. In his three games, Jansen is working with a VM+G of 14.92, whereas in the postseason Jansen has worked at 15.41.

Kenley has also worked hard to get his velocity back to where it used to be. His cutter is sitting just .07 miles per hour lower than the 93 mph at 92.93. Compliment his increased velocity with a hard-breaking sinker that is topping out in the mid-96 range, and Jansen brings his deception back to the game.

Kenley has also taken two miles per hour off of his slider. That may sound negative but speed differential between a fastball and an offspeed pitch is what makes a reliever (or a starter for that matter) effective. Jansen has reintroduced a slider that got torched during the regular season and has been strong with it to this point.

Perhaps the most important piece to this puzzle is Jansen’s control. In 2018, Kenley walked 2.1 batters per nine innings- the third worst in a season of his with at least 65 innings pitched. This postseason, Jansen has walked just one batter and while that may not be totally telling, his control in each of his three games has been far improved from just a few weeks ago.

There is no concrete evidence from a tiny sample size like this. But, look at the numbers that do exist and factor in the confidence that Jansen has pitched with to this point, and the real Kenley may be back to play. If that is the case, the Dodgers have their bullpen’s biggest piece back in action.