Dodgers: The Joe Kelly Deal is an Interesting Gamble

The Dodgers went to Las Vegas looking to bolster their roster.  They upgraded their bullpen by rolling the dice on a high stakes reliever.

Since Andrew Friedman took control of the Dodgers’ President of Baseball Operations he has established the narrative of being unwilling to spend on free agent relievers.  Friedman mentioned at the winter meetings that he has offered deals to free agent relievers they just never accepted them.  Now with the signing of Joe Kelly, Friedman has made his first big reliever signing outside of keeping Kenley Jansen.

The signing of Kelly is an interesting gamble and you can’t blame Dodger fans if they are hesitant of any reliever contracts thanks to Brian Wilson, Brandon League, and several other nightmare reliever deals that we would be best not revisiting.  Signing any free agent reliever is risky given how volatile relievers tend to be, so the signing of Joe Kelly is most certainly a gamble.

This last postseason, Kelly shined and established himself as one of the Red Sox’s electric setup relievers.  All he did was pitch to a 0.79 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in eleven plus playoff innings.  Opposing batters hit just .186 against Kelly and the Dodgers saw first hand what he is capable of in the World Series.  In the World Series, Joe Kelly pitched six innings allowing no runs and just four hits.

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That is the good, now the bad.  In the regular season, Joe Kelly registered a much higher ERA of 4.39 in his second season of working exclusively as a reliever with the Red Sox.  In 65 innings of work, Kelly walked 32 batters and his 1.36 WHIP would have ranked him 20th on the Dodgers out of all pitchers who worked as a reliever during the regular season.  That would slot him in between Ryan Madson and Adam Liberatore.

Then there is the injury history for Joe Kelly.  Right biceps strain in 2015, right shoulder impingement in 2016, and a strained left hamstring in 2017.  To Kelly’s credit, he avoided the disabled list in 2018 so perhaps the shoulder injuries he had in the past, stay in the past.  Kelly was throwing over 100 miles per hour in the playoffs, but he did post ERA’s over eight in June, July, and September.

Still, the Dodgers offered Kelly his three-year deal hoping he builds off his postseason and turns into one of the best setup relievers in baseball.  Kelly does a good job of missing barrels with his wicked stuff and he allowed a hard hit percentage of just 30.6% which puts him in line with some of the other big-name relievers on the free agent market.

Another thing Joe Kelly is good at is not giving up home runs.  Despite being such a hard thrower he allowed just four home runs this season and three home runs last season which gives him seven homers allowed in over 100 innings of work.  The signing of Kelly definitely comes with risk, but it’s a gamble the Dodgers were willing to roll the dice on in Las Vegas.