Dodgers: 2019 NL West Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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DENVER, CO – APRIL 23: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies circles the bases on his two-run home run in the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on April 23, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

In the next installment of “Dodgers: 2019 NL West Outlooks” I’ll look into the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are the Dodgers closest competition in the NL West as things stand heading into Spring Training. While they made just a few moves this offseason, the Rockies were able to free up some slots for some of their young up-and-comers who have been blocked over the last few seasons by expensive veterans like Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gonzalez, and D.J. LeMahieu.

Over the next few weeks leading up to Spring Training (which is less than 40 days away), I will be going through each team in the NL West and recapping their 2018 (overall and against the Dodgers), analyzing their off-season thus far, and “Dodger Killers” on their rosters.

For the first two installments in this series, I decided to talk about the San Francisco Giants and in the Arizona Diamondbacks, both of whom are unlikely to make many moves in what remains of this offseason. This will be the first piece on a competitive team that could still make a move or two this offseason but have mostly been left out of the rumor mill over the last week or so.

MILWAUKEE, WI – OCTOBER 04: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies reacts after striking out in the seventh inning of Game One of the National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on October 4, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

The Rockies really took a step forward in 2019, nearly wrenching the NL West away from the Dodgers up until losing game 163 last season after spending 30 total days in first place. After a slow start to the season, finishing April with a record of 15-15, the team began to pick it up as the weather heated up, going 76-57 from June 1 on.

When you think of Colorado, you probably think of Coors Field and the massive bump it provides hitters in terms of power and just hitting in general. While the 2018 Rockies hit well once again, the team put up a top-6 OPS and a top-6 total bases season, with top-8 finishes in runs scored and home runs. their starting pitching really was their difference maker.

While the team ERA was 20th in all of baseball, this was due more to ineffective relievers rather than because of their starting pitcher. The Rockies finished tied for fifth in quality starts and in the top half of the league in strikeouts.

Led mostly by young starters German Marquez and Kyle Freeland, the Rockies should dominate on the mound once again in 2019, most likely jumping even higher on the pitching leaderboards with bounce-back campaigns from Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and the rest of the veterans in the bullpen, and also from young starter Jon Gray.

While the Rockies found success against the league in general at the plate, most of the “Dodger Killers” on their roster can be found in the starting rotation, as Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, both 5+ WAR players in 2018, were less valuable against the Dodgers than they were against the rest of the league. The young starters of the Rockies were able to pitch well against one of the best lineups in baseball for the most part.

Here are the top-3 Dodger Killers from the 2018 Rockies’ roster.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson was not an ace by any means last season for Colorado. His 4.55 ERA and 8.39 K/9 leave plenty to be desired. But Anderson pitched plenty, hurling 176 innings last season in 32 starts, and this allowed him to be worth 2.0 WAR on the season.

A good chunk of this value came against the Dodgers.

Anderson held the Dodgers to a .228 AVG and gave up just 12 runs in 108 at-bats against. He struck out 24 while walking just 9.

As a big lefty, the 6’4 starter may have had an unfair advantage against the Dodgers of 2018, who had a tough time hitting left-handers. But as the roster stands today, the lineup will have a tough time against lefties once again, and Anderson will look to be there to capitalize again for the Rockies next season.

Kyle Freeland

The team leader in innings in 2018, Freeland finished with the 9th-most innings of any starter last season with 202.1 innings and was one of just 13 starting pitchers to reach the 200+ innings plateau in 2018. Freeland pitched to a 2.85 ERA and minuscule 0.76 HR/9 last season, both marks that led the team. Freeland, a Colorado-native, knows how to pitch in Colorado, and has been more successful than any starter in recent memory, maybe since All-Star Ubaldo Jimenez.

Besides knowing how to pitch in Colorado, Freeland also knew how to pitch against the Dodgers last season. Freeland was able to best Buehler in a battle for first place in early September, though Buehler got the last laugh, beating the Rockies with ease in game 163.

Overall against Los Angeles, Freeland pitched lights out, allowing just seven extra-base hits in 95 ABs and a .221 batting-average-against to along with a 26/12 K/BB ratio. Another tall lefty, the 6’3 Freeland allowed just 9 runs in his outings against the Dodgers and should be able to improve upon those numbers next season as long as the Dodgers continue to struggle against lefties.

German Marquez

By the numbers, Marquez was the best starter, and third best overall player, on the Rockies last season. His 4.5 WAR led all pitchers on the team, and his 10.56 K/9 was the best strikeouts per nine innings ratio amongst starters on the team. Marquez struck out so many hitters that he was able to overcome some of his shortcomings in terms of allowing home runs and walks.

This proved to be especially true against the Dodgers last season.

Marquez held the Dodgers to a .170 batting average against, lower than the previous two pitchers on this list by more than .50 points of batting average. While he did allow six home runs to the boys in blue in 94 ABs, he still allowed just 10 runs against them, just one more than Freeland in a similar number of ABs against LA.

While the Dodgers had his number in game 163, in which he threw just 4.2 innings and allowed two home runs, he did have nine strikeouts in this outing. If he is able to rein in some of his home run problems, which will be tough to do in Coors field, he could become the worst nightmare of Dodger hitters up and down the lineup, no matter where the game is played.

If the Rockies young studs in the rotation and at the plate continue to perform, their 91 wins from last season could reasonably be built upon. The team finished 11-8 against the Diamondbacks last season, and they should be able to improve upon that mark this season against a depleted Arizona roster, which will add wins.

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The team’s worst record sorted by the opponent was by far against the Dodgers, as they finished 7-13 against LA last season. If the pitching maintains its prowess or even improves against the Dodgers next season, and if a few more games break their way, the Rockies could swipe the division away from a less-than Dodgers roster in 2019.

On the hitting side, the Rockies will be able to give more at-bats a solid group of young hitters including David Dahl, Garrett Hampson, and Raimel Tapia with the departures of veterans like Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra. The team also added Daniel Murphy, whose offensive output should more than mask the loss of D.J. LeMahieu to the Yankees.

Next. Dodgers Rumor Round Up: Corey Kluber, Free Agent, Outfield. dark

The Rockies of 2019 should look much more dangerous than iterations of the roster from recent seasons past.

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