Dodgers: What Will Rich Hill’s Return Do to the Starting Rotation?

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Ryu really feels like a lock to make the rotation for me, but when you dig past the superb production, you will find a heavily scarred injury history and low season-by-season innings totals.

To date in 2019, and even going back to his 2018 debut, Ryu has been lights out. The portly Korean celebrity has a 2.20 ERA combining this and last season, easily the best over that span amongst any of the Dodgers’ throng of pitchers, starters or relievers.

The 32-year old’s injury history is well-documented, and well-remembered by Dodger fans. Ryu, a 2013 Baseball America First Team awardee, has accumulated less than 600 innings over the seven years he has been stateside, with the bulk of those innings (344 of them to be precise) coming in the first two years of his career.

If any one Dodger should have their health closely monitored and coddled this season, it probably should be Ryu. Thus, it would make sense for the team to shunt him into the bullpen, to preserve his $18 million dollar arm for later in the season.

Ryu has not thrown over 126 innings in a season since 2017, with 24 starts, and he made 15 starts in 2018. If the Dodgers want to guarantee Ryu’s October health, the safest way to do so would be to make him a spot starter and high impact reliever along with Urias.

But maybe Ryu’s upside outweighs his injury-riddled past. The Dodgers are 14-9 in his last 23 starts dating back to 2018 (including the postseason). If the team wants to be reassured in holding off the streaking Padres, the ever-present Rockies, and the looming powerhouses of the NL East and NL Central, then Ryu needs to be deployed now.

Resting him and the rest of the rotation can be a problem not for April Dave Roberts, but for the so-called “Dog Days of Summer” Dave Roberts.

Kenta Maeda

Everyone’s favorite choice to send to the bullpen, Maeda has been one of the strongest Dodgers no matter his role over the last few seasons. And if you are a fan of this site you’re sure to have seen plenty of pro-Maeda coverage. Here’s some of the pro-Maeda coverage from the last six weeks of Dodgers Way.

On Wednesday, here was Michael Wittman’s case for Maeda:

Coming into his start Tuesday night, Maeda had made four starts and three of them had been quality starts. Prior to last night’s start, here were Kenta’s career stats in the big leagues compared to two very good pitchers in Marcus Stroman and Chris Archer: Maeda: 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 106 ERA+ Stroman: 3.82 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 111 ERA+ Archer: 3.70 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 107 ERA+

Six weeks ago, I articulated the case for Maeda’s place in the rotation, and against the Dodgers’ potential plan for sending him to the bullpen just like last season.

But either way, Maeda should not have to battle for a starting rotation spot. He is an elite pitcher on an inning-per-inning basis. Even if he is a strong bullpen piece, his value, both monetarily and to the team’s chances of winning games he pitches in, improves the more he pitches. To use more per-inning statistics, Maeda ranks sixth amongst Dodger pitchers who have started 9 or more games for the team over the last three seasons, and fourth among pitchers who have thrown over 100 innings for the team in K/9 and has the seventh-lowest BB/9 amongst Dodger starters with more than 49 innings with the team. Using swinging strike percentage, a measure that looks at what percentage of pitches opposing hitters swung and missed at, Maeda ranks 12th amongst all  Dodger pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings total over the last three seasons with a mark of 12.7%, placing him ahead of both Walker Buehler and Hyun-Jin Ryu.

As I hope the above statistics prove, Maeda really is at least as talented on the mound as any pitcher he is competing to stay in the starting rotation. If he is as healthy as he seems right now, the team should ride him into the playoffs, when it would make the most sense to transition Maeda into the bullpen.

Ross Stripling

The last Dodger All-Star starting pitcher that was named Clayton Kershaw who is still on the team (sorry about your trade Alex Wood),  Stripling had a tough second half in 2018.

But 2019 has brought new life into the 6’3 righty’s game. In five starts, Stripling has two quality starts and a start with 5.1 innings of shutout ball.

His 3.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are amongst the best on the team to start the season. Even though he has the least experience of the three pitchers vying for the final spot, he really does seem to be the most qualified to stay in the rotation.

Over the last two seasons, the 29-year old Stripling has over a strikeout per inning and an ERA of 3.04.

One interesting statistic regarding Stripling is that he is best when pitching at Dodger Stadium. This season, Stripling has a 1.83 ERA at home and a near-6 ERA on the road. From 2016 to 2018, he has a 3.12 home ERA against a 3.92 ERA on the road.

The fan-favorite “Chicken Strip” deserves a spot in the rotation as much as the next guy, and even though he sometimes shows less emotion than other pitchers, he really does have some of the best-offspeed stuff in the game.

Potential Solutions

The only real question here seems to be who is most deserving, not that one of the three is not deserving of the rotation spots.

For me, the Dodgers’ biggest struggle in 2019 has been the bullpen. Thus, the team needs to consider which two pitchers will be able to eat the most innings while in the rotation. All three could be good in the bullpen, but not all three have strong resumes in terms of getting deep into games.

Including last season, here are the ratios 6+ inning starts per total starts for each, a measure that provides differentiation between the three solid pitchers.

Ryu- 11 of 19 starts since 2018 (spent significant time on the DL)

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Maeda- 9 of 25 starts since 2018 (spent two+ months in the bullpen in 2018)

Stripling- 12 of 26 starts since 2018 (spent parts of 2018 injured and in the bullpen)

Of these three, Maeda has the worst ratio, not by much though. While it would make the most sense to send Kenta to the bullpen, it feels like, with the three starters injury histories, that a six-man rotation or some semblance of one would be the best strategy.

None of these three deserve to be in the bullpen, so why relegate any one of them there to serve less valuable than as starters. If the trio, or more realistically Stripling and Maeda traded off spending a month in the bullpen and a month as starters with flexibility based on heating up and cooling off, it may be the fairest plan that would squeeze the most value out of each arm.

Of course, I’m not an expert or anything close, but I think putting some creative thought into this problem is certainly acceptable.