Dodgers: The Big Problem With the Dodgers’ Bullpen
Last night, the Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts sent the oft-beleaguered Pedro Baez in to face the 3-4-5 spots in the heart of the Boston Red Sox order at Fenway Park.
Dodgers’ reliever Pedro Baez had two strikes on shortstop Xander Boagearts before he smacked a home run just over the Green Monster, and he only got to throw one pitch to the powerful Dodger Killer J.D. Martinez, a pitch which was promptly sent to the opposite field 406 away for a home run. Just like that, the game was tied and a series victory was in danger.
Dodger Twitter erupted with frustrations aimed at Roberts, at Andrew Friedman, at the Red Sox for besting their bullpen yet again.
It didn’t get any better from there. After working through the rest of the 8th inning without a blemish, Zach Rosscup and Yimi Garcia were brought in to preserve the tie in the bottom of the ninth. And they did so well that Kenley Jansen had to be brought in with one out in the inning and runners on first and second to preserve the tie.
Regardless of the result from this point on (Jansen bailed out his teammates by striking out Xander Boagearts on a piped fastball to end the inning), this was not the fault of Roberts. He did the best with what he had. Literally. On the ESPN broadcast, Matt Vassgersian told the audience how before the game, Roberts called Baez his favorite bridge to Kenley Jansen.
My first reaction: “WHAT?!?!”
I understand that Baez has proven worthy of the innings he has been given. I’ve written as much. But when Pedro Baez, the same Pedro Baez who within the last two seasons has been left off of postseason rosters and has been the bane of many Dodger fans’ existence during his struggles, is who Roberts trusts THE MOST out of his entire bullpen. Well, then you know that the Dodgers are in trouble.
The Dodgers should not have had to throw Baez into the fire. The 3-4-5 bats in the reigning World Series Champion Boston Red Sox order in the bottom of the eighth inning of a tie game. They should be able to plug in an elite reliever, plain and simple. And that sort of elite reliever should not be that hard to acquire. Plus, it really wouldn’t be out of character for the Dodgers under Friedman.
I’ll get into the cost and the likelihood in the rest of this piece, as well as a few relievers the Dodgers should target. (HINT: They’re not going to be cheap and they’re not going to be anything less than studs.)
The Cost of an Elite Reliever in 2019
While no team has dealt for an elite reliever in 2019, the past few seasons have seen top-notch relievers switch jerseys midseason or in the offseason. Here’s what they have cost based on a trio of 2016 trades for the best relievers on the market.
Aroldis Chapman Trade to the Chicago Cubs, 2016
Result: World Series Win for the Cubs
Cost: Gleyber Torres- the top-ranked Cubs prospect, #24 overall prospect in MLB at 19 years old
Billy McKinney- 2013 1st rd pick, 5th overall Cubs prospect
Adam Warren- Major League relief pitcher (7th inning type)
Rashad Crawford- minor prospect, hit .280 with 4 homers at Single-A full season in 2015
Analysis: The Cubs needed shut down closer, and this was the guy to get. They went and got him and paid the price. While they won the World Series, they gave up their top prospect, the 19-year old Gleyber Torres, who has blossomed into an All-Star caliber second baseman with 30+ homer power.
While no reliever exists on the 2019 market that is quite as valuable as Chapman, it would still be tough to see the Dodgers dealing a prospect of Torres’ caliber.
Andrew Miller Trade to Cleveland, 2016
Result: World Series Appearance for the Indians
Cost: Clint Frazier- 21st on Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100 Prospects list
Justus Sheffield- 69th on Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100 Prospects list
Two off the radar relief pitching prospects from Double-A/Triple-A
Analysis: The Indians got what they wanted, a world-class reliever built to lead the team into the World Series with enough oomph to push the Chicago Cubs to seven games. Frazier and Sheffield were highly-touted, yet neither have been able to stick at the big league level.
The Yankees turned Sheffield into James Paxton in the 2019 offseason though, and Frazier has reached the majors at various times in the three seasons since the deal, with his most success coming in 53 games in 2019 in which he has hit 11 home runs.
Mark Melancon Trade to the Nationals, 2016
Result: Nationals took the Dodgers to Game 7 in the NLDS
Cost: Felipe Vasquez (at the time Felipe Rivero)- became an All-Star caliber closer tossing near triple digits from the left side that same season
Taylor Hearn- pitching prospect who to date has one MLB appearance under his belt
Analysis: The Nationals got a stud in Mark Melancon, but like Chapman he was rental. And again like Chapman, he walked away from the team in the winter. Unlike Chapman, his presence was not enough to push the Nats over the Dodgers in the NLDS. He pitched well and helped solidify the Nationals bullpen that had seemed bereft of stability.
The Likelihood of Adding a Big Time Arm
Even though everyone loves to harp on Friedman, he has added the biggest names available on back-to-back July 31 deadlines, from Yu Darvish in 2017 to Manny Machado in 2018. Of course, neither performed well enough in the postseason to bring a set of World Series rings back to Los Angeles, but they were the big names and cost big prospect packages.
Willie Calhoun and Yusniel Diaz led their respective trade packages for the two former All-Stars acquired by the Dodgers. Both of these players were rentals though, but also played premium positions. Their costs should not drift much beyond that of the available relievers at this deadline.
To make matters even more favorable for Friedman, this year’s team still has plenty of Double-A/Triple-A depth from which to deal. Kiebert Ruiz and Gavin Lux, the top two prospects in the Dodgers’ system according to MLB.com, are ranked 28th and 31st respectively in the MLB.com Top-100 prospect list updated in June.
Both the Indians and Cubs gave up top-30 overall prospects, the best in their respective systems, to be able to go out and nab the premier relievers in the game. So the Dodgers and their fans should be prepared for the team to have to do the same.
Maybe a package including one or two of Tony Gonsolin (#5 Dodgers Prospect), Dennis Santana (#6 Dodgers Prospect), or D.J. Peters (#10 Dodgers Prospect).
Who To Target
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For me, the only reliever worth the asking price in this market is Felipe Vasquez. Vasquez, the centerpiece of the Melancon trade, is now a two-time All-Star in his own right and is also signed to a very team-friendly contract with club options for 2022 and 2023. This alone makes him worth the prospect cost for me. He, if acquired, would be around long enough to see the likely end of Kenley Jansen’s career.
As for his role, I envision Vasquez as an Andrew Miller-type reliever, dominating any lefty he comes across with his top of the heap stuff coming from the left side. He would not be asked to be the closer since Jansen has remained very effective this season, but he could close games on nights when Jansen pitched the day before for example.
Vazquez could also come in and neutralize, say, Christian Yelich or Anthony Rizzo if they come up in the 6th, 7th or 8th of a close game with ducks on the pond. Having that type of reliever, a type the Dodgers do not currently have under contract could be the difference between a World Series championship and an early exit in October.