Dodgers: Appreciating Kenta Maeda’s Impressive First Half

Dodgers’ starting pitcher Kenta Maeda has been a staple in the rotation since coming to the Major Leagues.  His success is often overlooked.

Kenta Maeda, no matter how much praise bloggers and writers and fans shower upon him, never seems quite able to escape the middling starter moniker or the shift to the bullpen narrative that surrounds him every second half now.

He deserves better.

As I’ve written before heading into this season:

"Comparing starter WAR over the last three seasons, Maeda, 7.4 WAR, ranks second only to Clayton Kershaw’s 14.7 WAR for the Dodgers. … Over the same three year span, Maeda ranks second to Kershaw in innings pitched and wins, and actually has started three more games over this span.Maeda ranks sixth amongst Dodger pitchers who have started 9 or more games for the team over the last three seasons, and fourth among pitchers who have thrown over 100 innings for the team in K/9 and has the seventh-lowest BB/9 amongst Dodger starters with more than 49 innings with the team.Using swinging strike percentage … Maeda ranks 12th amongst all Dodger pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings total over the last three seasons with a mark of 12.7%, placing him ahead of both Walker Buehler and Hyun-Jin Ryu."

I hope those numbers do a good job of demonstrating Maeda’s value as a cog in the rotation, not just a transitional long reliever/fifth starter. And this season, thanks to unfortunate injury luck for the starting rotation, Maeda has thrived as a full-time starter. But teammate Hyun-Jin Ryu’s breakout season and the emergence of Walker Buehler as an ace has left Maeda in the dust.

Let’s see how he compares to other Dodger starters and to starters around the league this season.

The Dodgers only have four hurlers who would count as “qualified” starting pitchers to this point in the season (Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, and Maeda). Between the four, Maeda is first in games started, is one of three pitchers over 100 innings, and second in K/9.

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But that’s where his numbers start to pale in comparison to the trio of All-Star’s that make out the rest of the rotation. Maeda’s BB/9 is more than three times that of Ryu’s, and his HR/9 is highest in this group, as are his ERA and FIP.

So in reality, Maeda was not an All-Star. He can’t quite compare to the other starters in this group. But just by virtue of throwing over 100 innings and starting 18 games with a sub-4 ERA (3.82), Maeda is valuable. He just looks less valuable when the All-Star trio is his basis for comparison.

Let’s check out the league context.

Using WAR, Maeda ranks 51st out of all 74 qualified starting pitchers this season, meaning he’s been solid even amongst other innings eaters. But as always, Maeda really thrives on a per-inning basis. His 8.97 K/9 is good for 31st in the game, his 3.82 ERA (thanks to a tough pitching environment this season) is the 35th best in baseball, and his 4.29 FIP ranks 47th.

This year’s All-Star game saw a combined 22 starting pitchers named to the roster across both leagues. So even though it cannot be argued that Maeda’s first half placed him in that top-22, he surely could be placed in the next tier of 22 starters, and thus makes him a valuable addition to the depth that is signature of the Dodgers. With a strong second half, maybe Maeda will be a second-half All-Star. That is, at least if he is kept in the rotation.