Dodgers: Has Clayton Kershaw been usurped as the Dodgers’ ace?

The Case for Ryu

Hyun-Jin Ryu is putting up a career year right under our noses. I think we’ve given him plenty of credit, and the team and fans have embraced his amazing start to the season. Manager Dave Roberts named him the starter for the National League which was well deserved.

But is he really the ace of the consensus best team in baseball to this point in the season? And even if he is the ace this season, does he have the staying power required to be an ace?

For me, it’s tough to tell.

For starters, Ryu’s soft tosser style doesn’t quite fit the mold of the traditional ace. But to refute that right away, there are plenty of accuracy-based aces that have graced the game with Hall of Fame-caliber play, most notably of course former-Dodger (and I suppose more notably former Atlanta Brave) Greg Maddux.

Beyond his slower-than-average fastball, the biggest knock against Ryu’s pending ace hood is his lack of track record. Now part of that has to do with him coming over to the United States later than most American-born pitcher of his caliber would, which automatically weakens his track record and exposure in America. Add on top of that the injury-limited seasons on the back of his baseball card and you can start to see why he isn’t really a solid choice to compare to other aces.

But should that be the case?

Since July 1 of last season, Hyun-Jin Ryu has the most WAR of any pitcher in the Dodgers rotation. His 4.7 WAR over 168.2 innings in that span tops Zach Greinke (4.6 in 232.2 innings), Noah Syndergaard (4.5 in 202.1 innings), Walker Buehler (4.4 in 195 innings), and Clayton Kershaw (4.3 in 209.1 innings). All four of those pitchers are aces who threw more innings than Ryu in that span, but on a per inning basis, Ryu was more valuable than all of those arms, each of which is widely considered to belong to an ace.

To continue Ryu’s argument for dominance, his 1.81 ERA since July 1, 2018, is the best in baseball. His is the only starting pitcher ERA under 2.00 in that span, and the next closest ERA belongs to Jacob DeGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. His ERA since July 1, 2018: 2.40.

Based on all of this, and the many hours I have logged watching Ryu pitch like its an art form, not an occupation, I would dub Ryu an ace. Regardless of the shorter seasons he has had and his injury history. Right now, over the past year, there is no better Dodger starting pitcher who has taken the mound. Those are the facts.

And yet Ryu still may not be the ace of the Dodgers. I think there’s a pitcher, a right-handed pitcher to be exact, who may be slightly more in position to take on that mantle from Kershaw this postseason.

And that man is Walker Buehler.

The Case for Walker Buehler

When Walker Buehler starts pitching, right from the first pitch, the crowd knows he’s an ace. He has a booming fastball, a knee-buckling curve, and he can reach back and fire the fastball as hard in the first inning as he can in the bottom of the ninth.

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Buehler embodies the ace criteria much more clearly than Ryu does, even if the numbers don’t back that up. I think Buehler has obviously been outpitched by Ryu both this season and since July of last season. But for me, that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Buehler’s allure and ace hood are linked more to the intangibles and to the mound presence than to his statistics.

When Buehler pitches, fans are excited. Fans will disregard his bad starts and move on without blinking an eye when it comes to the Vandy Boy because he possesses that ‘It Factor.’

Plus, his numbers don’t hurt his case either. Since July 1 of last season, Buehler has a 2.86 ERA, sixth-best amongst starters in that span, and a 10.02 K/9, good for 26th-best in that span. Only 4 of his 18 starts this season have seen him allow 4+ earned runs, and he has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 10 of his 18 starts, helping him reach an 8–1 record.

If I could choose between each of the three Dodger starters right now to start a Game 7 or a play-in game or anyone important start, it would probably be Buehler. Even though Ryu would be the rational choice based on the numbers, Buehler feels safer to me, more likely to dominate even the best of hitters and shut down opponents in a crippling fashion.