Dodgers: Has Clayton Kershaw been usurped as the Dodgers’ ace?

Do the Dodgers have an ace? I think so. It would be tough for a team to win 60 games before the All-Star break without an ace. But who is it?

Clayton Kershaw broke into the league with the Dodgers way back in 2008. In that time, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the game, if not of all time, with a peak likened to that of Hall of Fame Dodger lefty Sandy Koufax.

But in what is his age 31 season, the big Texan lefty has lost plenty of velocity off his fastball and consequently plenty of strikeouts off his peak numbers. His ERA ballooned above 3.00 for the first time since his rookie season.  Clayton dropped his ERA below three in last night’s start.

And most notably, Kershaw has had fewer dominant starts.

The 6’4 hurler has allowed 4 earned runs in a start 3 times this season, and 3+ earned runs in 7 of his 15 starts. To put that in context, Nationals ace Max Scherzer, the epitome of an ace in today’s game, has allowed 3+ earned runs in just 5 of his 19 starts this season.

I think it’s safe to say, as sad as it makes me say it, that the era of Kershaw has ended this season. He is no longer the best pitcher in the game and really doesn’t seem to be in the discussion anymore. Of course, he’s still an All-Star and is amongst the top starting pitchers, but thanks to age, injuries, and some blooming ineffectiveness, Kershaw is no longer the ace to build a team around.

So do the Dodgers have one? I think so. It would be tough for a team to win 60 games before the All-Star break without an ace. But who is it?

That’s what I’ll dive into in this piece. I want to compare the National League All-Star starter Hyun-Jin Ryu and the upstart in his sophomore season Walker Buehler, not just by the numbers, but by their mound presence and how they compare to past iterations of Kershaw and other accepted aces around the league.

The Case for Ryu

Hyun-Jin Ryu is putting up a career year right under our noses. I think we’ve given him plenty of credit, and the team and fans have embraced his amazing start to the season. Manager Dave Roberts named him the starter for the National League which was well deserved.

But is he really the ace of the consensus best team in baseball to this point in the season? And even if he is the ace this season, does he have the staying power required to be an ace?

For me, it’s tough to tell.

For starters, Ryu’s soft tosser style doesn’t quite fit the mold of the traditional ace. But to refute that right away, there are plenty of accuracy-based aces that have graced the game with Hall of Fame-caliber play, most notably of course former-Dodger (and I suppose more notably former Atlanta Brave) Greg Maddux.

Beyond his slower-than-average fastball, the biggest knock against Ryu’s pending ace hood is his lack of track record. Now part of that has to do with him coming over to the United States later than most American-born pitcher of his caliber would, which automatically weakens his track record and exposure in America. Add on top of that the injury-limited seasons on the back of his baseball card and you can start to see why he isn’t really a solid choice to compare to other aces.

But should that be the case?

Since July 1 of last season, Hyun-Jin Ryu has the most WAR of any pitcher in the Dodgers rotation. His 4.7 WAR over 168.2 innings in that span tops Zach Greinke (4.6 in 232.2 innings), Noah Syndergaard (4.5 in 202.1 innings), Walker Buehler (4.4 in 195 innings), and Clayton Kershaw (4.3 in 209.1 innings). All four of those pitchers are aces who threw more innings than Ryu in that span, but on a per inning basis, Ryu was more valuable than all of those arms, each of which is widely considered to belong to an ace.

To continue Ryu’s argument for dominance, his 1.81 ERA since July 1, 2018, is the best in baseball. His is the only starting pitcher ERA under 2.00 in that span, and the next closest ERA belongs to Jacob DeGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. His ERA since July 1, 2018: 2.40.

Based on all of this, and the many hours I have logged watching Ryu pitch like its an art form, not an occupation, I would dub Ryu an ace. Regardless of the shorter seasons he has had and his injury history. Right now, over the past year, there is no better Dodger starting pitcher who has taken the mound. Those are the facts.

And yet Ryu still may not be the ace of the Dodgers. I think there’s a pitcher, a right-handed pitcher to be exact, who may be slightly more in position to take on that mantle from Kershaw this postseason.

And that man is Walker Buehler.