Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw and the dreaded home run ball

At this point, it’s undisputed Dodgers’ fans, and I hate to say it, but it’s the truth. Clayton Kershaw gives up home runs.

It’s Kershaw’s major flaw. Say what you will about his second-half resurgence and about how this low-Velo Kersh has resurrected his career thanks to pure guile and nasty cutters and curves. No matter how you slice it, Kershaw’s home run problem hurts.

The three solo shots that led to a 5–1 loss to the New York Yankees on Sunday night stung. Aaron Judge’s third of the series stung. They all stung. For starters, that’s how opposing fans feel after each and every one of the Dodgers’ National League-leading 227 home runs. Hitting homers is fun, but watching them fly while on the field along with a chorus of fretful murmurs feels exactly how you’d imagine. It stings.

But Kershaw hasn’t always had this homerun affliction. It had never been a real tangible issue for Kershaw until the 2017 season. And even then, the average fan would not have been aware of much based on his season-long stat line (18-4 record with a 2.31 ERA). It wasn’t until the 2017 postseason that Kershaw’s home run problem became a national story, a narrative so tantalizing, Joe Buck even had the chance to discuss it in the World Series.

In the 2017 postseason, Kershaw allowed a postseason career-high 8 home runs, more than double his previous postseason career-high. And if one had been paying attention in the regular season, they would have likely noticed the general uptick in home runs allowed, as he surrendered more than 20 regular season homers for the first time in his career that season.

Last season, the overall numbers worsened even as the home runs allowed total fell back down closer to his prime levels. And even then, 9 of the 2018 home runs came in the second half. Now,  in 2019, the home run scare is back. After the three solo shots allowed Sunday night, Kershaw has allowed 18 home runs.

Why? How? Hasn’t he been better than ever in 2019, or at least better than he has been since the back injuries started sidelining him, or since the velocity went down a few noticeable ticks?

Home run rate

The main indicators that Kershaw really is susceptible to the long ball come in a few main forms. Over the last few seasons, he has had a higher rate of pitches be pulled, be hit hard, and leave the yard than at any point in his career. He also, as everyone knows, has far less average velocity on his fastball.

But is there any hope for the (gradually) falling star? Should he age gracefully in terms of the home run ball? Or could he even find a way to improve the skill?

Obviously, at this point in my Kershaw fandom, I believe the southpaw can do anything and learn any skill. The fact that he has his lowest second-half ERA since 2016 tells me that. But still, I decided to find comparable lefties in terms of pitch mix and velocity to try and determine if there was a certain pitch he could alter, or add, to find better results.

Here’s what I found.

Since 2017, amongst qualified starters, Kershaw has allowed 58 home runs. Aaron Nola has allowed 57, Max Scherzer 56. So he hasn’t allowed a number of home runs so gaudy it would keep him from being an ace, but most of us already agreed with that.

But more importantly, what about his rate stats over this 2 1/2 plus season span? He has the 13th-best HR/9IP out of 32 qualifiers, but the tenth-highest HR/FB rate and 13th highest hard contact rate so is either in the middle of the pack or worse amongst his fellow workhorses across baseball. Obviously, he’s one of the best in the game, but not in the home run department.