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Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw should be LA’s third playoff starter

By Michael Wittman |
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 20: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning giving up back to back home runs to the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium on September 20, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 20: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning giving up back to back home runs to the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium on September 20, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 20: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning giving up back to back home runs to the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium on September 20, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 20: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning giving up back to back home runs to the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium on September 20, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

The Dodgers at least publicly are still sorting out their playoff rotation.  Clayton Kershaw should be the third playoff starter.

Entering the final few games of the 2019 season, the Dodgers are heavy favorites to win the National League pennant for a third consecutive season.  Despite being the NL favorites, the Dodgers still have plenty to sort out with their playoff roster.  In addition to figuring out who will be the club’s fourth playoff starter, the Dodgers also need to figure out their rotation order.

The good news for the Dodgers is that they have three quality playoff starters.  The fact that their rotation could be assembled in any order shows the quality of their top three playoff starters.  It is easy to make the case for any of Kershaw, Buehler, and Ryu to get the ball in game one of the NLDS.  Dave Roberts and Andrew Friedman will have to weigh the pros and cons of how they assemble their rotation.

Here are a few reasons why the Dodgers should make Clayton Kershaw their third playoff starter and start Hyun-Jin Ryu and Walker Buehler in the first two games of the NLDS.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 13: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches during the second inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 13, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 13: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches during the second inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 13, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Kershaw is battle and road tested

While all three of LA’s playoff starters are better at Dodger Stadium than they are away from it, Kershaw has the smallest ERA jump between his road and home splits.  This season Kershaw has an ERA of 2.89 at home and 3.54 on the road.  Buehler has an ERA of 2.86 at home and a road ERA of 3.66.  Ryu’s home ERA is 1.93 while his road ERA is 2.95.  While Ryu has the lowest road ERA, he has fared much better at Dodger Stadium in his career.

While Clayton Kershaw had the highest road ERA of the three in last year’s postseason, he has shown he can pitch in tough environments and feels like the starter you could trust on the road the most of the three.  Last year, Hyun-Jin Ryu started game one of the NLDS at home and he fired seven shutout innings.  Buehler also left a strong impression in the World Series, blanking the Red Sox for seven innings at Dodger Stadium.

With almost a run difference between the career ERA’s of Buehler and Ryu at home versus the road, starting Ryu and Buehler the first two games at home makes the most sense.  Not to mention the Dodgers likely want to go lefty-righty-lefty so it should be either Ryu or Kershaw in game one and Ryu is easier to trust at home.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – AUGUST 31: Starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on August 31, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA – AUGUST 31: Starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on August 31, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Lower rotation slot, lower expectations

This is an interesting season for Clayton Kershaw.  He seems to have finally accepted that he is no longer the dominant pitcher he once was and will likely be able to accept taking the third spot in the rotation order.  Something that would’ve been unimaginable a few seasons ago.  Kershaw will finish with an ERA above three for the first time since his rookie season.

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Every season of Kershaw’s career he has been counted as the ace of the staff and had the most pressure in the postseason.  This season he won’t face the same type of pressure with Ryu in Cy Young contention and Walker Buehler capable of shutting down any opposing lineup.  The Dodgers can ease Kershaw’s burden by starting him third.

It is unlikely that the Dodgers will pitch Kershaw on three days rest like they used to, so while he would only be able to start one game of the NLDS, it would put him in line to start early in the National League Championship Series, should the Dodgers make it as they are expected to.  That would set Clayton up to pitch twice in the NLCS on regular rest.

Next. LA's bullpen better equipped to handle lefties in 2019. dark

Ultimately, the Dodgers enter the postseason with the best starting rotation in the National League and one of the best rotations in the entire postseason.  While the order their starters are put in may not make too much of a difference, on paper it makes sense to start Hyun-Jin Ryu and Walker Buehler in the first two games of the NLDS.  That would make Kershaw LA’s third playoff starter entering the postseason.

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