How well do the Dodgers match up with the Nationals?
The Dodgers will face either the Nationals or the Brewers in the NLDS and both, despite losing their divisions, are still playoff teams and should be feared.
The Nationals (93-69), actually finished with a better record than the St. Louis Cardinals, who won the NL Central with 91 wins. They feature three aces in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin, to go along with two of the best hitters in the game in MVP-candidate Anthony Rendon and second-year star Juan Soto, first against the Brewers and then potentially against the Dodgers.
Washington was one of the hottest teams in baseball in the second half. On June 29, the Nationals were 41-41, a perfectly adequate .500, which meant their playoff hopes were limited. The team was in such a bad spot that rumors abounded surrounding the possibility of trading their superstar thirdbaseman Rendon. From that point on, the team went 52-28 to secure the top Wild Card spot (for context, the Dodgers have won 50 games since June 29 themselves).
In this article, I’ll be focusing on the Nationals. More specifically, I’ll be leaving out the historical context, analysis of their overall season, and any other deeper analysis and instead be honing in on how they match up with the Dodgers. I will look into how the Nationals’ hitters match up with pitchers the Dodgers have, both directly and indirectly, and also how the Dodgers’ hitters match up with the Nationals’ pitching.
Dodgers Pitchers vs. Nats Hitting
The Dodgers have a solid starting rotation. Hyun-Jin Ryu’s 2.32 ERA leads the major leagues, and the team’s overall 3.11 starter ERA leads the major leagues (the Nationals are in second in the MLB with a 3.53 starter ERA).
Against the Nationals (or Brewers), Dodgers will feature a sequence of Ryu, three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, and emerging ace Walker Buehler. Combined, the three make up a balanced and formidable trio, and likely complement each other better than any other trio in the playoffs. Which other team has two lefties who could win the Cy Young this season to go along with a 98mph fastball coming from the right side?
Surely not the Nationals, or any team the Nationals have faced this season for that matter. So how will Washington match up? Can Rendon, Soto, and the rest keep up with Buehler’s heat, and track the offspeed stuff of Kersh and Ryu? Can the Dodgers pitchers handle all the power in the Nats’ top-heavy lineup?
That’s what I wanted to examine.
I began by selecting Ryu, Kershaw, and Buehler, and saw how they did in their outings against the Nationals this season.
The lefties did well.
Ryu held the Nats to a .185 batting average against with just two extra-base hits against (both doubles), striking out 13 and walking two in the 54 at-bats they had against him. Kershaw held Washington to a .150 batting average against, though in 34 fewer at-bats than Ryu, while striking out nine and walking three.
Buehler is the only member of the big three to allow a home run and is the only one to allow a batting average against over .200. The Vandy Boy allowed a .245 batting average against, four overall extra-base hits, and four walks, though he did punchout 14 in 49 at-bats.
How did the Nationals stars hit the Dodgers overall? Rendon hit .280 without a home run, doubling and striking out three times each. Soto hit a home run and walked four times, but only hit .188.
But more important than the small sample sizes of these two sluggers is how the team hit left-handed starters on the season as a whole, especially after June 29, when they boosted their record into the playoff conversation.
On the season, the Nationals have the best batting average against lefties in the NL, with a .283 mark that is good for third in the MLB (which has been bolstered in part by former Dodger Howie Kendrick’s hot second half), and while they are 20th in overall home runs, they are seventh overall in slugging percentage and third in SLG in the NL.
Since June 29, our arbitrary cut off date for the Nationals getting hot, the Nats actually got a little worse in the power categories, dropping to 26th in overall home runs and to ninth in SLG, while maintaining their .283 average, third-best in the MLB in that span.
While the Nats and their stars have not hit the Dodgers top starters exceedingly well, they have hit lefties decently, something that could affect the Dodgers and their lefty-laden bullpen and starting rotation, which besides the aforementioned aces will likely feature Rich Hill, Caleb Ferguson, Adam Kolarek, and Julio Urias.
Dodger Hitters vs. Nats Pitching
As I mentioned earlier, the Nationals have three of the best starters in all of baseball in Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin. Like I did with the Dodgers best three starters, I’ll look into how well this trio did against the Dodgers this season, while putting an additional focus on Washington’s bullpen, known to be one of the worst in the playoffs, if not in all of baseball.
For Mad Max (Scherzer, not Muncy), he held the Dodgers to a .200 average in 25 at-bats, with seven strikeouts and two walks. The only active Dodger with an extra-base hit off of Scherzer is Justin Turner, who connected for a home run off of him this season.
Strasburg has faced the Dodgers more and done better against them, and he and Corbin will be much more likely to face the Dodgers more than once in the NLDS, though knowing Scherzer’s competitive spirit, he likely will too if the series goes five games.
For Stras, he’s held the Dodgers to a .152 batting average in 46 at-bats, striking out 18 and walking none. He did not allow a home run against LA either, allowing one double apiece to Cody Bellinger, Matt Beaty, and A.J. Pollock.
But perhaps the best starter for the Nationals to use against the NL-leading Boys in Blue will be (the pitcher I noted as a Dodger Killer before this season). Corbin, the only dangerous lefty in the Nats’ rotation, has a history of stopping the generally lefty-heavy LA offense. Here’s what I found out about his 2018 campaign against LA last season:
One outgoing “Dodger Killer” is Patrick Corbin. Corbin had a .128 batting average against and only allowed two runs in 86 ABs against the Dodgers last year. His 33/8 strikeout-to-walk rate against the Dodgers was one of the better rates among Dbacks pitchers last season and his departure to the Nationals this offseason really hurt their 2019 outlook.
But what about this season? Did he continue to perform or did he sputter against his former-NL West opponent?
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Well, he certainly didn’t sputter. He held the Dodgers to a .125 average, allowing just three singles and four walks versus nine strikeouts. He and his nasty stuff from the left side will likely be tough for the Dodgers.
Since June 29 (the same cut off as I used with the Nats), the Boys in Blue only have hit .204 against lefties, many of whom were much worse than Corbin. On the season as a whole, the Dodgers didn’t do much better, hitting .248 against lefties.
But there is reason for optimism in that department and on the subject of hitting Corbin in general. Corbin did not have to face many of the team’s top hitters, especially the lefty-mashers. Pollock, the team’s best hitter against lefties, has six home runs and is hitting .323 against southpaws this season. Corbin also missed the hottest versions of Will Smith, Corey Seager, and Justin Turner. Plus, two of the three hits Corbin allowed were to David Freese.
If ever there were a time and a team to hit Corbin, it would be the 2019 postseason iteration of the Dodgers. And if they can execute against Corbin at the plate they will be in a position to win against the Nationals best weapon to use against the Dodgers off the mound.