Dodgers: Comparing Gavin Lux with Ghosts of Playoffs’ Past

Compare and Contrast: Lux’s Hard Hit Rate-

Here are the Dodgers’ second basemen that qualified for hitting statistics in 2018, courtesy of Fangraphs.

In this particular link, I’ve highlighted what’s commonly referred to as “Batted-Ball Statistics.” It’s an effective way of looking at a player’s skillset rather than the results of his at-bats.

In other words, even if a player’s overall numbers are down, batted-ball stats still show how hard said player’s contact is.

For example, sometimes a bit of “luck” on the fielding-end is necessary to maintain a high batting average.

Batted-ball stats take that ‘luck factor’ out of the equation and focus directly upon the player’s performance, not solely the result.

Throughout Brian Dozier’s 168 plate appearances (PA) for the Dodgers last year, his ‘hard-hit rate’- any ball hit harder than 95 MPH- was higher than the rest of the Dodgers’ second basemen in 2018.

Of all the balls put into play (BIP) by Dozier last year, 43% were ‘hard-hit.’

Gavin Lux has had (now at the end of the season) only 82 plate appearances in the Majors thus far.

However, his 52.3% ‘hard-hit rate’ (almost a full ten points higher than Brian Dozier’s last season) magnifies just how successful his MLB debut has been.

Although Dozier had the highest ‘hard-hit rate’ among Dodger second basemen last year, his actual batting average (BA) sat at an abysmal .184.

The only keystone attendant with a batting average worse than Dozier’s last year was (sorry guys) everyone’s favorite, Chase Utley (at .179 BA).

The highest average in 2018 at second-base belonged to Kiké Hernandez with .235.

Gavin Lux’s average hit (what I believe to be) a temporary lull toward the end of September. Plenty of those games held little-to-no importance.

A career .305 hitter in the minors, Lux’s MLB batting average currently sits at .240. Five points higher than Hernandez’s team-leading.235 AVG (at second) in 2018.

Lux’s Skillset-

Lux has put more balls into play with a 100+ MPH exit velocity than he has at any other speed.

Keep in mind that Statcast defines 95+ MPH as a ‘hard-hit.’ To put the ‘hard-hit’ stat into further perspective, New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge finished 1st in ‘hard-hit percentage’ last season and (most likely) will finish 2nd this season at a 56.8% clip (second only to Miguel Sano’s 57.5%).

It’s not fair to say that “hard-hit balls equal a great hitter” because there’s far more to the equation, however, hitting the ball hard consistently is an excellent sign of things to come.

Lux’s Expected Weighted On Base Average (xwOBA)-

Expected weighted on-base average is arguably the most comprehensively sound stat made to show how well a hitter is driving the ball. See this for a more detailed definition of xwOBA.

Much like a ‘hard-hit rate’ xwOBA shows performance rather than results.

For example, think of a rookie who’s struggled to drive runners in.

Instead of focusing upon the negative (not hitting in runners), it’s far more helpful to show the youngster how well he’s hitting the ball.

Not only rookies benefit from these stats.

GM’s and coaches can decipher whose struggles may only be temporary, and even old-school chiseled vets analyze performance-based stats, sometimes as extra motivation in place of focusing upon negative results.

Concerning Lux, the MLB average xwOBA is .312 (roughly). Lux’s lowest point thus far sits at .320.

Given his proven hitting prowess, we’re probably looking at his floor skill-set, meaning he’ll only get better the more he plays and the more he sees MLB pitches.

Lux’s Clutch Gene-

When Lux made his debut with the Dodgers I mentioned his seemingly natural ‘clutch gene.’ Clutch players- Kirk Gibson, Pablo Sandoval, Aaron Boone, Big Papi, and Mariano Rivera (just to name a few)- simply play better when the brightest lights beam upon them.

After only being with AA-Tulsa for less than half a season just last year, a then-20-year-old Gavin Lux led Tulsa to their first championship in exactly 20 years.

He did so by providing the offensive spark-a .424 AVG throughout the Texas League Playoffs-Tulsa needed.

Room for Improvement-

All professional athletes strive to get better, stronger, faster, smarter.

Given what Gavin Lux has shown the world thus far, it’s obvious that this temporarily burdensome mini-slump is probably driving him nuts.

I’ve got good news.

Ironically one of the most impressive attributes Lux brings to the box may be what’s prolonging his mini-slump: his unbelievably mature eye.

The kid lays off pitches only a certain few can, young and old. The balance between overcautiousness and knowing when not to swing can sometimes be more elusive than the Loch Ness Monster.

I believe Lux is currently battling to find that balance.

Over his 82 MLB plate appearances Lux had an unreal ‘chase percentage,’ i.e., the percentage of swings the batter takes at balls out of the strike zone.

The fact that he’s only 21 years-old makes his 16% chase-rate even that much more impressive. To put that percentage into perspective, the MLB average chase-rate is 28.3%.

That’s twelve percent higher than the average MLB player. 82 plate appearances is a small sample-size indeed, however, given his age, it’s fair to assume that he is already on par with the elite eyes in baseball.

So what’s the problem?

His eye may be too good. The MLB average ‘swing-rate,’ or the percentage of times the hitter swings, is 46.6%. Gavin Lux’s swing-rate is 40.4%.

This difference in percentages may appear small to some but right now I believe Gavin Lux is simply being too passive at the plate.

It’s natural (especially as a leadoff or #2 hitter in the lineup) to want to see as many pitches as possible especially when taking pitches happen to also be one of your strongest talents.

However, the balance between taking pitches and swinging should be more equal than 40/60. Especially when you’ve got a hit-tool and power the likes of Gavin Lux.

It’s completely understandable to not want to mess up. However, if you don’t get the bat off your shoulders, you’ll never have the opportunity to fail or succeed.

The Answer-

Easier said than done but: relax. You’re here big fella. There’s no more need to take thirty pitches every at-bat so Andrew Friedman knows that you’re ‘MLB ready.’

Swing that bat. In Triple-A Oklahoma this year Gavin Lux was an absolute monster. Forgive me for saying but monsters are feared. Timidness, cautiousness, and passivity are not feared.

He’s proven he can hit at an elite level. He’s also proven he can take pitches with the best of them.  But when a hitter is hitting in the #7 spot of the lineup opportunities present themselves that force a hitter to be more aggressive because that’s what needs to be done.

More than anything, knowing how great Gavin Lux can (and will) be, paired with watching him go down looking, is one of the more frustrating things I’ve watched as a fan of baseball in recent memory.

It’s like climbing into a Lamborghini without tires or a fighter jet without wings. I just want him to swing. Trusting yourself in the box is as important as your eye. It feels like Lux doesn’t trust his swing. But I certainly do.

For players as young with as much talent and bat-speed as Lux there’s an adage in baseball: “just see it and hit it.”  I couldn’t think of a better suggestion. Let those hands fly, trust the work you’ve put in, and just see it and hit it.

Lux is entirely too talented to let the opportunity of a lifetime simply pass him by like a called-third strike. He is ready now.

Overall-

The change will come and it’ll come very soon.

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Players don’t just float up to the bigs in two years out of high school without remaining coachable.

If the coaches see the same thing I do (I’m confident they will) he’ll be back to being the monster we’ve seen before, and with haste.

In sum, of the 2018 second-base troupe versus Gavin Lux, simply put, Lux is the better option at second for this season’s playoff run.

His ‘hard-hit rate’ trumps the 2018 leader by nearly 10 points and his batting average is currently 5 points higher than the Dodgers’ best option at second base last year.

With a far better ‘hard-hit rate’ and a better batting average than last year’s platoon, Gavin Lux’s 1st round MLB Draft pedigree, his lightning-quick ascension through the ranks, his advanced approach and a discerning eye seldom seen from a 21 year old, all wrapped up in a shiny, polished MLB-vet demeanor, the kid deserves to see the NLDS.

And he’s easily our best option.  Now that September has finally come and gone it is our only option to excitedly sit back, relax, and enjoy the Postseason ride.