Dodgers: Possible trade packages for Francisco Lindor

Swapping Shortstops?

One of the easiest potential packages to envision would involve swapping Corey Seager and some peripheral pieces for Lindor. This makes a lot of sense on its face, especially when considering their comparative costs over the next two seasons. Here’s how Morosi broke down their arbitration values for MLB.com:

According to projections at MLB Trade Rumors, Lindor will likely make in the neighborhood of $16 million via arbitration this season, and Seager somewhere in the $7 million range.

If this is the case, over two seasons, Lindor will likely make upwards of $30 million while Seager’s two-year total will probably fall closer to $20 million. If this is the case, then the Indians could be incentivized to make this deal. Over the last few seasons, the Indians, despite making a World Series berth back in 2016, have not gone all out spending wise, instead opting to coast to ALDS berths using their prospect depth.

For the first time in the last few seasons, the Indians missed the playoffs, largely due to a down year from José Ramirez and injury-shortened seasons for Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. This may incentivize the team to do a more complete teardown, as they already dealt Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati for young pieces from the San Diego Padres and for a year of Yasiel Puig.

If the Indians fail to extend Lindor, he will reach free agency in 2021, the same time Kluber becomes an unrestricted free agent. Ramirez also can become a free agent after the 2021 season if the team decides to decline his club option.

Basically, the Indians are in a prime position to begin a rebuild after 2021, but if they feel their window to compete now is closing, they may choose to shift some money elsewhere in favor of adding depth and younger pieces, as they did in the Bauer deal.

If the Indians went for a “Seager and more for Lindor” deal, then they would likely save a fair amount of money, especially if they forced the Dodgers to eat the salary of any additional players the team sent over.

But who would some of these satellite pieces be in a shortstop swap?

Peripheral pieces in a Seager trade?

To go along with Seager, the Indians would more than likely ask for depth, both on the hitting and pitching sides. But despite Seager’s slightly depressed value and recent injury history, his value is surely still higher than that of older Dodgers hitters like Max Muncy or Justin Turner.

So what pieces would have to go along with Seager? More than likely, they would need to bring little in the way of a salary cap hit and would not be free agents until after the 2021 offseason.

The Indians’ depth chart features very little on the hitting side. With no true starting-caliber second baseman or corner outfielder, Cleveland really needs to add depth. Some of that could come internally, as budding prospects Greg Allen and Jake Bauers have both spent time alongside 2019 rookie Oscar Mercado in the outfield.

However, despite their prospect pedigrees, they are not ready for full-time roles in 2020 if the Indians want to stay in the hunt for an AL Wild Card slot. To supplement this lack of depth, Chris Taylor could provide a perfect fit to go along with Corey Seager.

Taylor becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2021 season. For 2020, Taylor is likely to make around $5 million, which would make him a bargain for the Indians as a second baseman with the ability to play the corner outfield slots as well.

Taylor’s low cost and solid track record make him a perfect fit for the Indians, whose window still would not close by swapping Lindor for Seager and Taylor, along with a few minor league prospects certainly.

But maybe the Indians don’t want the biggest pieces of their return to be two short-term major leaguers, so what are some prospect packages that could work?

A Prospect-Heavy Approach

While prospects are likely to be involved, it would be tough to rule out Major League pieces. In the Bauer trade, the Indians got back Franmil Reyes, a right fielder who could DH in the future, and Logan Allen, a rookie left-handed starter.

Reyes, 24 years old, will not hit free agency until 2025. Allen, 22 years old, has a much shakier timetable, as he still is under his rookie deal since his service time clock has yet to start.

If the Dodgers can provide pieces similar to Reyes and Allen to go along with Lindor, then they should be able to get a deal done. So who fits this mold?

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Obviously the Indians would argue Gavin Lux and Dustin May would be perfect prospects to headline a Lindor deal, but they really don’t have that sort of bargaining advantage in my opinion, and neither does Morosi. He brings up Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Jeter Downs, the third-, fourth-, and fifth-rated prospects in the Dodgers system.

While I think that dealing all three of these players for Lindor would potentially be an overpay, it also just would make no sense. Where would you play Lindor if you kept the rest of your infield?

That’s why I’d argue the Seager-Taylor-prospect trade framework makes the most sense in terms of roster flexibility for the Dodgers, and in terms of return for the Indians. The Indians have four right-handed pitchers within their top-15 prospects according to MLB.com. The Dodgers have six, with three ranked in the top six overall prospects.

This makes a right-handed pitching prospect a potential trade option to clip onto Seager and Taylor. Beyond May and Gray, the only top right-handed pitching prospect the Dodgers have is Tony Gonsolin, who surely would be tough for the Indians to snag.

More than likely, the third player involved would be Mitchell White or Dennis Santana. White is 24 years old and was projected to debut in 2019, as he pitched well in Triple-A in 2019. Here’s his MLB.com outlook:

He has the upside of a mid-rotation starter who can generate more than his share of swings and misses as well as ground-ball contact. He also could be a high-leverage reliever who could concentrate on attacking hitters with his fastball and breaking balls.

Santana also was projected to debut in 2019 based on his Triple-A status (which he briefly did). Here’s MLB.com’s take on the 23-year old righty:

Santana sometimes struggles to command his pitches because he has so much life on his fastball and utilizes a crossfire delivery. He does throw enough strikes for Los Angeles and most scouts to project him as a starter, with one organization rating him as the system’s best prospect at the outset of 2019. If he winds up in the bullpen, he has the stuff to serve as a setup man or perhaps even a closer.

All in all, the Indians will likely require a prospect in addition to any Seager-based package for Lindor, and personally, I’m all for that sort of deal.