Dodgers: Possible trade packages for Francisco Lindor

Andrew Friedman said he wanted to change the complexion of the team. If the Dodgers add Francisco Lindor, they’d be doing just that.

As reported by John Paul Morosi for MLB.com, the Dodgers are rumored to be pursuing Lindor this offseason in what would become arguably the biggest blockbuster of the 2010s decade for the Dodgers (if of course the trade was completed before January 1, 2020).

Lindor’s merits do not need to be stated, as his stardom largely speaks for itself, but in case you doubt his talents or track record, I’ll list off some of his statistics here.

The shortstop known as “Mr. Smile” will turn 26 years old in three weeks. In each of his five seasons with the Cleveland Indians, Lindor has been a 4.0 fWAR player or better, including his rookie year in 2015 which was only 99 games long.

After looking like a batting average and defensive-minded player after his first two seasons, Lindor sacrificed some batting average for power over his last three seasons. In that span, he’s averaged 34 home runs, 20 steals, and a .278 AVG per season, good for an average fWAR of 5.9. He walks nearly as much as he strikes out (and he strikes out less than 100 times a season) and along with his three-season 30-home run streak, he has a three-season 40-doubles streak as well.

To put that in a Dodgers context, Cody Bellinger put up a 7.8 fWAR season in 2019 while only one other Dodger (Max Muncy 4.8 fWAR) eclipsed 4.0 fWAR. Bellinger hit 47 home runs and 34 doubles with a .305 AVG and his strikeouts and walks both hovered around 100.

Basically, Lindor has been able to put up numbers similar to Bellinger’s career year for three years running, while playing a Gold Glove level defense at a premium position in shortstop. He’s got two years left before free agency, which barring an extension, will come at the end of the 2021 season.

In this article, I’ll go through a few different options the Dodgers have as to how they can approach a trade for Lindor. Let’s get into it.

Peripheral pieces in a Seager trade?

To go along with Seager, the Indians would more than likely ask for depth, both on the hitting and pitching sides. But despite Seager’s slightly depressed value and recent injury history, his value is surely still higher than that of older Dodgers hitters like Max Muncy or Justin Turner.

So what pieces would have to go along with Seager? More than likely, they would need to bring little in the way of a salary cap hit and would not be free agents until after the 2021 offseason.

The Indians’ depth chart features very little on the hitting side. With no true starting-caliber second baseman or corner outfielder, Cleveland really needs to add depth. Some of that could come internally, as budding prospects Greg Allen and Jake Bauers have both spent time alongside 2019 rookie Oscar Mercado in the outfield.

However, despite their prospect pedigrees, they are not ready for full-time roles in 2020 if the Indians want to stay in the hunt for an AL Wild Card slot. To supplement this lack of depth, Chris Taylor could provide a perfect fit to go along with Corey Seager.

Taylor becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2021 season. For 2020, Taylor is likely to make around $5 million, which would make him a bargain for the Indians as a second baseman with the ability to play the corner outfield slots as well.

Taylor’s low cost and solid track record make him a perfect fit for the Indians, whose window still would not close by swapping Lindor for Seager and Taylor, along with a few minor league prospects certainly.

But maybe the Indians don’t want the biggest pieces of their return to be two short-term major leaguers, so what are some prospect packages that could work?

A Prospect-Heavy Approach

While prospects are likely to be involved, it would be tough to rule out Major League pieces. In the Bauer trade, the Indians got back Franmil Reyes, a right fielder who could DH in the future, and Logan Allen, a rookie left-handed starter.

Reyes, 24 years old, will not hit free agency until 2025. Allen, 22 years old, has a much shakier timetable, as he still is under his rookie deal since his service time clock has yet to start.

If the Dodgers can provide pieces similar to Reyes and Allen to go along with Lindor, then they should be able to get a deal done. So who fits this mold?

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Obviously the Indians would argue Gavin Lux and Dustin May would be perfect prospects to headline a Lindor deal, but they really don’t have that sort of bargaining advantage in my opinion, and neither does Morosi. He brings up Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Jeter Downs, the third-, fourth-, and fifth-rated prospects in the Dodgers system.

While I think that dealing all three of these players for Lindor would potentially be an overpay, it also just would make no sense. Where would you play Lindor if you kept the rest of your infield?

That’s why I’d argue the Seager-Taylor-prospect trade framework makes the most sense in terms of roster flexibility for the Dodgers, and in terms of return for the Indians. The Indians have four right-handed pitchers within their top-15 prospects according to MLB.com. The Dodgers have six, with three ranked in the top six overall prospects.

This makes a right-handed pitching prospect a potential trade option to clip onto Seager and Taylor. Beyond May and Gray, the only top right-handed pitching prospect the Dodgers have is Tony Gonsolin, who surely would be tough for the Indians to snag.

More than likely, the third player involved would be Mitchell White or Dennis Santana. White is 24 years old and was projected to debut in 2019, as he pitched well in Triple-A in 2019. Here’s his MLB.com outlook:

He has the upside of a mid-rotation starter who can generate more than his share of swings and misses as well as ground-ball contact. He also could be a high-leverage reliever who could concentrate on attacking hitters with his fastball and breaking balls.

Santana also was projected to debut in 2019 based on his Triple-A status (which he briefly did). Here’s MLB.com’s take on the 23-year old righty:

Santana sometimes struggles to command his pitches because he has so much life on his fastball and utilizes a crossfire delivery. He does throw enough strikes for Los Angeles and most scouts to project him as a starter, with one organization rating him as the system’s best prospect at the outset of 2019. If he winds up in the bullpen, he has the stuff to serve as a setup man or perhaps even a closer.

All in all, the Indians will likely require a prospect in addition to any Seager-based package for Lindor, and personally, I’m all for that sort of deal.