Dodgers: Which free agents should the Dodgers bring back?
The Dodgers have three players heading to free agency as their fourth, David Freese retired. Should LA bring any of the three back?
The Dodgers, like almost every other club, have the next few days to decide whether they want to reach agreements with their own free agents. Starting on Monday, November 4th, free agents will be free to negotiate with any other team. The Dodgers had four players who were set to become free agents although David Freese retired and cut the number to three. Jedd Gyorko will also join free agency when the Dodgers buy out his club option.
LA’s primary three free agents will be Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, and Russell Martin. None of the three will be given qualifying offers as the only one who would get one, Ryu, cannot be given a qualifying offer since he signed one last winter. Should any of the three be brought back for the 2020 season and beyond?
One more season of Rich Hill?
When we last saw Rich Hill pitch, he departed game four of the NLDS after only 2 2/3 innings against the Washington Nationals. Hill will enter free agency and his market should be relatively small if he even garners much interest. Not only is Rich injury-prone, but he will turn 40 years old before the 2020 season begins. If he pitches in the big league next season, it will likely with the Dodgers.
For the Dodgers, they have to consider if Hill is worth bringing back for another season. The Dodgers have plenty of young talented starters such as Julio Urias, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Dennis Santana. There are not enough rotation spots for all three and bringing back Hill would only crowd the rotation more.
If Hill is open to a bullpen or swingman type role he could have value as the Dodgers limit innings next season for each of their young starters besides Walker Buehler. Hill would be a nice depth piece for the rotation but relying on him at age 40 would not be smart and neither would letting him block another young starter’s rotation spot. If Rich is open to a role switch, the Dodgers should bring him back.
Russell Martin’s mentorship still has value
Russell Martin returned to the Dodgers in 2019 and it was more than just a heartwarming homecoming story. Russell Martin provided great mentorship to Austin Barnes and Will Smith that Dave Roberts talked about multiple times throughout the season. Martin also ranked well defensively according to StatCorner’s catcher report.
Offensively, Russell Martin still has some pop left in his bat and can get on base at a decent rate for a backup catcher. Will Smith will be the Dodgers’ primary catcher in 2020 but he is still young and if the Dodgers feel that Austin Barnes is not going to provide good veteran leadership, then bringing Martin back would be a wise decision. If Barnes is ready to be that veteran backup catcher, then Russell Martin shouldn’t be brought back.
Bring back Ryu or upgrade?
The debate to bring back Hyun-Jin Ryu is an interesting one. Ryu had a Cy Young contending season for the Dodgers this year and only received one playoff start where he pitched five innings while allowing two earned runs. He struggled in the 2018 postseason pitching to an ERA of 5.21. Ryu will be 33 years old before next season begins so he will likely command a three to four-year deal.
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Hyun-Jin will be in for at least a small raise from the qualifying offer especially with Scott Boras as his agent. For teams in need of starting pitching that don’t want to hand out long term deals, Ryu makes a ton of sense for. The Dodgers could be one of those teams if they are not willing to go beyond five years for Gerrit Cole or possibly Stephen Strasburg. Ryu has been injury-prone over the years although he stayed healthy in 2019.
Since Hyun-Jin Ryu does not rely on velocity, he should age well over the course of his short-term deal. The problem for the Dodgers is that Ryu is more of a regular-season pitcher and the team needs pitchers that can help them compete against the aces on other teams. Ryu did well in his lone 2019 playoff start but in 2018 he struggled mightily in the NLCS and World Series.
Then there is the injury risk. Ryu has already had shoulder surgery and injury his groin multiple times. While they have the depth to overcome any injuries to Ryu, in terms of the postseason, the Dodgers have to weigh if Hyun-Jin can be counted on against elite playoff teams.
If the Dodgers are not planning to pursue Cole or Strasburg a reunion with Ryu makes sense. If they plan to go big then Ryu will be playing elsewhere in 2020 and beyond. While he would make a nice third playoff starter, the Dodgers still need to seek that second ace to pair with Walker Buehler. Given it’s unlikely that the Dodgers sign two top starters, Ryu should only be the backup plan.