Dodgers: Drew Pomeranz could be next front office bullpen blunder

The Dodgers have been linked to southpaw reliever Drew Pomeranz by both The Athletic and by MLB Trade Rumors this offseason.

MLBTR predicts a two-year deal worth $16 million for Pomeranz, and they think he could even earn a third year if the bidding is competitive enough. This prediction is not one I even remotely enjoy. It reminds me of the 2018 offseason, and more specifically, it reminds me of the team’s bullpen strategy during that fateful winter.

Last offseason, the Dodgers inked veteran reliever Joe Kelly to a three-year, $25 million deal after he allowed just one earned run in 11.2 postseason innings in 2018 to go along with 13 strikeouts. He really was not set to make any money, but those dominant 11+ innings netted him a three year deal with an average annual value of over $8 million.

The buzz surrounding Pomeranz feels markedly similar. Here’s how MLBTR described his merit-earning end of the 2019 season:

From August 2nd onward, Pomeranz was an utterly dominant reliever for Milwaukee.  His fastball velocity ticked up to 95-96 miles per hour as Pomeranz struck out nearly half of batters faced, more than Josh Hader during that time.  The eye-opening showing, less than 30 innings in total, could even net Pomeranz a three-year deal.

So Pomeranz had a stretch of dominance thanks to an electric fastball that could earn him a three year deal with an AAV around $8 million. Interesting.

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Hopefully, this popular prediction does not become a reality. I am by no means trying to diminish Pomeranz’s upside or 2019 success. He really did look like a different pitcher, especially due to the uptick in velocity.

But if the Dodgers are really trying to compete in 2020 by changing the “complexion” of the team, then why would they make the Joe Kelly mistake a second time? Why sign an uncertain commodity when much more stable relievers with actual postseason experience are on the market, and probably will cost around the same amount per year without needing that third year?

Much of the appeal surrounding Pomeranz surrounds the fact that he has been an above-average Major League pitcher before. That is true, but his run of success came over a 60+ start stretch that went from 2016 to 2017, and that success came as a starting pitcher.

Starting pitchers that are as good as Pomeranz was a few seasons ago are rare, and Pomeranz was a hot commodity at that time, as he moved from Oakland to San Diego and eventually to Boston to help teams in need of pitching.

But as it turns out, the Dodgers do not need a former starter or an unproven reliever with upside, no matter how solid they were for a couple months at the end of 2019. The Dodgers need stability, they need someone Dave Roberts will trust enough to eliminate the need to use Clayton Kershaw in Game five of the NLDS in the eighth inning when his All-Star closer still is waiting to be used in the bullpen.

Signing Pomeranz could make sense if there were no such relievers on the market, but Will Harris, an Astros All-Star reliever, and Delin Betances, a four-time All-Star in his own right, both are floating around in the free-agent pool.

Why sign Pomeranz to a two or three-year deal worth $8 million per year when these guys are predicted to sign for $9 million and $7 million a year respectively?

Despite the predictions and the connection to the Friedman mindset (ie. the Kelly signing), this move wouldn’t make a shred of sense to me, and it would mark yet another bullpen mistake made by the Dodgers front office.