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Dodgers: Why a rare free agent splurge on Gerrit Cole makes sense

By Michael Wittman |
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 22: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros delivers the pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning in Game One of the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 22, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 22: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros delivers the pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning in Game One of the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 22, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
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HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros delivers the pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning in Game One of the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 22, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros delivers the pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning in Game One of the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 22, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

The Dodgers have paid their own stars when they reach free agency but it remains rare that they sign a star impact free agent from outside the organization.

The Dodgers have not been shy to keep their own free-agent stars, dishing out money to Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, and Clayton Kershaw in recent seasons.  It has been a while since the Dodgers signed one of the premier free-agents on the market.  You have to go way back to 2012 when the Dodgers signed Zack Greinke for their last impact free-agent signing.  That came before the Andrew Friedman era.

While the blue did go out and sign Joe Kelly and A.J. Pollock last winter, neither player is a star and were lower-tier free-agent signings.  It’s time for Andrew Friedman to go outside his comfort zone and spend big on a marquee player in free agency.  Not only could the Dodgers use a pitcher of Cole’s caliber but they actually have a need for it.  Here are several reasons why the Dodgers should buck the trend and splurge on Gerrit Cole.

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The Dodgers need a #2 starter

It is no secret what propelled the Nationals and Astros to the 2019 World Series.  Both clubs had very good starting rotations and most notably, both had a dynamite duo at the top of their playoff rotations.  The Dodgers have Walker Buehler who established himself as an ace in the postseason but they currently need a number two starter.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is a free agent and Clayton Kershaw remains a very solid starting pitcher in the regular season but we all know what tends to happen in October.  The Dodgers need to bolster their rotation with a number two starter and Gerrit Cole is the best starting pitcher on the market.  He and Walker Buehler would make a dominant duo and help ease the burden off Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw’s contract clears after two more seasons which would make it much easier to sign Gerrit Cole to a long term deal.  Once Kershaw’s salary is off the books the Dodgers would easily have the flexibility to extend some of their young players even with Cole’s big salary still on the books.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 18: James Paxton #65 of the New York Yankees throws a pitch against the Houston Astros during the first inning in game five of the American League Championship Series against the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium on October 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 18: James Paxton #65 of the New York Yankees throws a pitch against the Houston Astros during the first inning in game five of the American League Championship Series against the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium on October 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

The 2021 free-agent starter class is not very good

Another reason why the Dodgers should splurge on Gerrit Cole is that next year’s starter crop is not very strong.  The top two starters on the market figure to be James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka but chances are the Yankees will keep one if not both of them.  After them, the next best starter is likely Robbie Ray although he has had plenty of injuries in his time with the Diamondbacks to go along with inconsistency.

Marcus Stroman, Jake Arrieta, Jose Quintana, and Trevor Bauer are the other starters who could head to free agency next winter.  Arrieta and Quintana are coming off down seasons along with the fact that Arrieta will turn 35 years old in 2021.  Stroman and Bauer shifted over to the National League but neither had much success in the senior circuit.

If Clayton Kershaw further regresses in 2020 then the Dodgers could be in big need of a starting pitcher next winter.  The blue can get ahead of the game and sign Gerrit Cole this off-season and make sure they are not looking for a starting pitcher next winter when the free-agent starting pitcher class is weak.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 09: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts as he leaves the game after giving up back to back home runs in the eighth inning of game five of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals at Dodger Stadium on October 09, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 09: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts as he leaves the game after giving up back to back home runs in the eighth inning of game five of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals at Dodger Stadium on October 09, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Maximize the current window for several Dodger stars

The Dodgers will enter the 2020 season with their World Series title window still wide open but baseball is a funny game and things can change quickly.  It wasn’t too long ago that the Chicago Cubs were viewed as a potential dynasty in the making yet after they won their World Series, the team has struggled which has pushed them to consider dealing stars like Kris Bryant.

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This window will not stay open forever and signing Gerrit Cole would help maximize the window that is currently open for the Dodgers.  While the tail end of Cole’s contract may not go well, he should remain an elite starting pitcher for the next three to four seasons.  Pairing him with Walker Buehler for his prime years would give the Dodgers an even bigger shot to win a World Series every season.

Add in that Justin Turner is a free agent after the 2020 season and Clayton Kershaw is a free agent after the 2021 season and this could be the last shot or two at a ring for two fan favorites.  There is no other free-agent that would increase the Dodgers’ odds of a World Series title more than Gerrit Cole.  Pitching remains king in October and the Dodgers need to form their own formidable pair at the top of their rotation.

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Andrew Friedman has yet to lure a star free-agent to Los Angeles but he should change up his game plan this off-season and sign Gerrit Cole.  Cole is the best free-agent starting pitcher until Jacob deGrom has the ability to opt-out and become a free agent in 2022.  Rather than hope Julio Urias or Dustin May quickly develop into number two starters, Friedman should go out and sign Cole.

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