5 Ways The Dodgers Can Control Their Narrative in 2020

These Dodgers want to be the New York Yankees at the turn of the century.

Seven consecutive division titles carries with it a lot of weight. In fact, only two other teams in Major League Baseball history have built playoff streaks that extended further than the current Dodgers’ run; the Atlanta Braves (14 – 1991 to 2005) and the New York Yankees (13 – 1995 to 2007).

During their seven-year run atop of the National League West, the Dodgers have won an average of 96 games and twice topped the 100-win mark (2017 and 2019). That’s a pretty impressive streak in today’s modern MLB, considering free agency and the changing landscape of how the values of youth and veterans are seen.

Being a larger market club, the Dodgers find themselves wisely straddling the line between a steady flow of youth and the ability to go out and get veteran game-changers via free agency and the trade market. In other words, this is a team that knows how to build from the ground up while also knowing how to fill holes it cannot from within?

Sound familiar? It should.

The New York Yankees arguably built a near-dynasty from that model during the mid-1990’s through the early 2000’s. The cores of those teams were constructed around young, controllable players that came up through the team’s farm system in Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera. They then saw an influx of veteran pieces like Paul O’Neill, Scott Brosius, David Cone, Tino Martinez, and others that added to that core to build a championship roster. All and all, it led to four World Series titles in a five-year stretch (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000) and two further appearances in 2001 and 2003.

Similarly, the Dodgers are currently built on a young core. With the likes of Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Gavin Lux, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Joc Pederson, Kenley Jansen, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urias all coming up through the Dodgers system and set to constitute a large portion of the roster, the Dodgers have been able to utilize resources elsewhere to fill in the gaps. Acquisitions like Mookie Betts, David Price, Blake Treinen, and Alex Wood hope to bolster the roster as it makes another run toward the title in 2020.

The beauty of these transactions is that the Dodgers have been able to manage to make moves without depleting their system either, leaving plenty in the tank for future runs if they can put the pieces together this season.

Mookie Betts is the difference maker the Dodgers have been missing.

With expected departures looming, the Dodgers went into the offseason with some holes to plug. The loss of Hyun-Jin Ryu via free agency seemed like a certainty and Los Angeles was fully expected to be a player in the market for a replacement.

However, things went in a slightly different direction.

On February 11th, the Dodgers struck a big deal with the Boston Red Sox to acquire left-hander David Price. While the return of Price certainly filled the aforementioned need, it was by no means the centerpiece of the deal. That honor belonged to Mookie Betts.

Acquired along with David Price and cash in exchange for shortstop prospect Jeter Downs, outfielder Alex Verdugo, and catching prospect Connor Wong, Mookie Betts was the equivalent of the Dodgers pushing their chips into the center of the table and declaring to the rest of Major League Baseball that they were “all-in” for the 2020 season.

Short of acquiring Mike Trout, the Dodgers couldn’t have found a better player in the game to focus on. Second only to Trout in fWAR since 2015 (44.2 to 35.4) Betts is the epitome of a superstar that would be a perfect complement to Bellinger. Since 2015, his first full season, here are Betts’ ranks among MLB hitters:

Runs – 579 (1st)

Home Runs – 134 (23rd)

RBI – 452 (13th)

wRC+ – 135 (20th)

wOBA – .378 (19th)

BSR – 40.3 (2nd)

That says nothing of the value that Betts adds with the glove. Betts is the only player in baseball that has been ranked above Andrelton Simmons with the glove with a UZR/150 of 18.3 since 2015, with only Simmons and Kevin Kiermaier ranking higher in Defensive Runs Saved.

Outside of Cody Bellinger, the Dodgers have lived and died by the platoon and injuries in the outfield over the last couple of seasons. The addition of Betts gives them stability and a bonafide 5-tool player to an area that badly needed improvement.

If the ZIPS projections for Betts of .295/.375/.543 with 34 home runs, 126 runs, 21 stolen bases, and a wRC+ of 138 hold true, Dodgers fans should enjoy a special season in the grass.

The Dodgers best chance to get over the hump is for the bullpen to right the ship.

After a team-record 106 wins during the regular season, the Los Angeles Dodgers were unceremoniously shown the door in a first-round loss to the eventual champion Washington Nationals. Of the many reasons for the Dodgers loss, none was more prevalent than the lackluster effort of the bullpen.

Over the course of 18.2 innings pitched during the series with Washington, Dodgers relievers gave up 15 runs to Nationals hitters, including four in the 10th inning where the Nationals came from behind to capture the deciding Game 5.

That performance was sort of the wheel falling off scenario that the team didn’t see coming during the regular season. After all, the team placed 9th in baseball in relief ERA in 2019, floating a mark of 3.85 on the season. That wasn’t drastically different than the underlying numbers with the team placing 6th in FIP (4.06) and 7th xFIP (4.25).

While the ship didn’t show it, it sank nonetheless and the Dodgers went into the winter knowing that they needed to improve at the back-end of the pen. Instead of relying on miscast starting prospects being utilized as relievers, the team felt they needed to bolster their set-up crew.

Step in Blake Treinen.

Treinen was an All-Star in 2018, when he went 9-2 with a 0.78 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and an 11.2 K/9 rate on the way to a 3.6 WAR season for the Oakland Athletics. However, he wasn’t able to duplicate that season in 2019 and found himself on the reclamation pile this winter, where the Dodgers picked him up hoping to find a diamond in the rough.

If Treinan can get back to form (which may be a tall ask for a 31-year-old reliever), he could feasibly make the process to Kenley Jansen that much more difficult for opposing hitters.

Speaking of Jansen, he’ll be looking for a bounce back season of his own. While his K/9 jumped up to 11.43 from the season prior, Jansen struggled with stranding runners (73.6% LOB%) and saw his hard-hit rates rocket to a career-high 38.7% in 2019. Jansen will need to see his fastball velocity start to climb back up or level off if he wants to regain effectiveness in 2020.

The rest of the bullpen will be made up of a familiar cast of characters, with Joe Kelly, Pedro Baez, Scott Alexander, Adam Kolarek and others returning in the set-up ranks.

If the Dodgers want to succeed in October, they are going to need to find the right mix of those arms to hold down the fort.

Starting pitching needs to carry the load, but who takes the big step after Kershaw and Buehler?

The starting rotation has remained a strength for the Los Angeles Dodgers throughout their seven year run atop the NL West. But will it be again in 2020?

Between the loss of Hyun-Jin Ryu to the Blue Jays via free agency and the trade of Kenta Maeda to the Twins, the Dodgers are losing 55 starts and 319.2 innings of 5.1 fWAR baseball. While Maeda’s role was never truly defined in a Dodgers uniform, the depth and production of both he and Ryu will be tough to duplicate.

The Dodgers did pick up a solid starter in former ace David Price (acquired in the Mookie Betts trade), but Price is coming off of a lackluster season in Boston, where injuries continuously stalled him and ultimately made his contract expendable. Ideally, the Dodgers would love for him to get back to his 2018 self, when he put up a 16-7 record with a 3.58 ERA, 9.05 K/9 ratio, but even that came with a few missed starts only 176 innings of work. Given the Dodgers own issues getting pitchers to the 200 inning mark, they would like a bit more from their number three starter.

That’s where the young depth that the Dodgers have built can really help them in 2020, and ultimately becomes more of a must than a luxury. The continued growth of Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin will ultimately be key to the Dodgers continuing their streak. While Alex Wood does loom as a veteran option, the trio of young arms may ultimately be the big turning point for Los Angeles.

Cody Bellinger has to evolve from MVP to superstar

To say that Cody Bellinger has made the most of his time in Major League Baseball would be an understatement. Entering his fourth season in the league, his age 25 season, Bellinger has already accumulated 111 career home runs, 288 RBI, a lifetime split of .278/.368/.559, and a cumulative fWAR of 15.4.

Not too shabby to say the least.

However, if the Dodgers want that coveting World Series trophy, Bellinger is going to need to continue his evolution. That isn’t to say that he needs to better his 2019 output, but he has to pick the kind of player he wants to be moving forward. Is he the steady performer that won a Rookie of the Year in 2017 and followed that up with an “okay” 2018 season? Or is he the superstar that took home the National League MVP award in the back of .305/.406/.629 split with 47 home runs, 121 runs, 115 RBI, and 15 stolen bases in 2019?

According to current projections by ZIPS, Bellinger looks to dip a little, but still remain a force at the plate. Those rankings currently have him projected for a 5.6 fWAR season, with a .293/.392/.585 split, 40 home runs, 108 runs scored, and 120 RBI.

Of course, some of the weight will be lifted off of Bellinger this season. The acquisition of Mookie Betts adds a proven top-of-the-order bat to the line-up, which only adds to the RBI opportunities of those behind him, including Bellinger. The addition of Betts at the top also allows others to slide into supporting roles around Bellinger, improving the quality of pitching he sees throughout the game as well.

Bellinger doesn’t need to repeat as MVP in 2020, but approximating that performance will certainly do a lot to help the Dodgers push over the hump. Paired with other solid pieces, Bellinger and the Dodgers have a line-up recipe brewed for a championship.