Which version of David Price will the Los Angeles Dodgers see in 2020?

The Los Angeles Dodgers picked up former ace David Price as part of a blockbuster trade over the winter, but which version of the lefty will the team see in 2020?

On the way to their 7th consecutive division title, the Dodgers were once again paced by an excellent starting rotation in 2019. Despite some injuries to the staff and some juggling of rookies into the rotation, the starting staff acquitted itself quite nicely last season, finishing in the top ranks of all starting staffs in the league.

fWAR – 19.7 (2nd)

ERA – 3.11 (1st)

FIP – 3.52 (2nd)

K/BB – 4.55 (1st)

BAA – .222 (2nd)

WPA – 11.06 (2nd)

Fronted by a top three of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the team utilized a revolving roster of starters that also included Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, Rich Hill, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Caleb Ferguson, and even an opener in Casey Sadler. Some stability in the rotation was always going to be a goal of the front office entering the winter.

However, the team seemed more intent on landing a bat over the winter, flirting with top free agent Anthony Rendon and even discussing a trade that would have netted uber-shortstop Francisco Lindor from the Cleveland Indians. Neither one ended up in Dodger Blue, but the team didn’t let failures there change their plans for the rest of the winter.

In the meantime, the team watched one of their stalwart starters from the prior season, Ryu, depart via free agency to the Toronto Blue Jays. The team did add reclamation project Jimmy Nelson as a potential mid-season piece, but they still needed to address their starting pitching depth.

Low and behold, the solution to both their pitching needs and desire for a right-handed bat were going to be met simultaneously.

On February 4th, the Dodgers came to an agreement with the Boston Red Sox to acquire perennial MVP candidate Mookie Betts and starter David Price in exchange for prospects Jeter Downs, Alex Verdugo, and Connor Wong. While the primary target of the trade was most definitely Betts, the inclusion of Price was, at the time, more of a salary dump for Boston. Trying to get under the luxury tax threshold for the 2020 season, the Red Sox included Price in the deal in order to shed the final three years of his salary, agreeing to pay only half of the amount for each of the season Price is still under contract.

Still, it filled a need for the Dodgers on the surface with what would seem like a capable arm. But what are the Dodgers actually getting in David Price?

The David Price of the Present

Any pitcher that comes into town with an average annual salary of $31 million obviously does so with heavy expectations. For the most part, David Price met those expectations in the first year of his deal.

In 2016, the lefty made a career-high 35 starts and threw 230 innings in a Red Sox uniform. While his ERA climbed to 3.99 while making half of his starts in Fenway Park, he also went 17-9 and his ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA (both 3.60) thought better of his work. According to FanGraphs, Price was worth $35.2 million against his actual salary of $30 million in 2016, giving the Red Sox good value for their dollar in his first season.

Needless to say, there was some reason for optimism for better efforts in the years to follow.

The optimism faded quickly though in 2017, as injuries started to nip at Price’s heals a bit. Overall, he made just 16 appearances (11 starts) during his second season in Boston, and while the results were encouraging (3.38 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 135 ERA+), the lack of innings hurt the team and they ultimately received just $11.7 million in value from Price.

2018 was a tale of two seasons, Price went 16-7 during the regular season, with a 3.58 ERA. However, ERA estimators thought a bit less of his work, with FIP (4.02) and SIERA (3.82) grading lower and suggesting that Price was overachieving against how he was actually pitching.  However, he turned it around in the postseason and helped the Red Sox capture the 2018 title while going 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA in the playoffs, including two wins in the World Series.

Things ended on a bit of a bittersweet note for Price in his Red Sox tenure. Repeated injuries curtailed his 2019 season, resulting in a rough season. In 22 starts, Price managed just 107.1 innings of a 4.28 ERA (his worst since his first full season as a starter).

Overall, David Price spent four seasons in a Red Sox uniform and won a World Series. However, he won just 46 games during his tenure, and contributed a 3.84 ERA, a 3.74 FIP, and an ERA+ of 118 over 588 innings in Boston. Value-wise, the Red Sox spent $169 million on David Price (including the $48 million sent to the Dodgers over the next three seasons) but saw only $85 million of the value returned according to FanGraphs.

The David Price of (Dodgers) Future

Entering his age-34 season, and with 2000-plus innings and a recent injury history that isn’t very encouraging, the expectations on David Price should be relatively low entering the 2020 season. However, all things require context as well.

Firstly, we have to temper our expectations in regards to acquiring an ace level pitcher. If David Price were still pitching at his peak, he obviously wouldn’t have been included as a salary dump. Rather, we have to realize that we are acquiring an arm that has a lot of mileage on it and is on the wrong side of his prime. Slotting him in as a number three starter seems accurate and hoping for an approximation of his 2018 season would likely be ideal.

Secondly, the Dodgers aren’t getting a $30 million per year pitcher at this stage. With the Red Sox pumping in half of Price’s yearly salary over the next three years of his deal, the Dodgers will only be picking up $16 million per season over that time. While that is still a steep number, that would put Price in the same area as the likes of J.A. Happ, Miles Mikolas, and Danny Duffy among MLB starters (according to Spotrac). While ideally, the Dodgers would get more out of Price than the expectations placed around Happ and Duffy, this at least provides perspective in regards to where he should fall in terms of salary to value ratio.

ZIPS currently projects Price to contribute the following over the three years he has left in his contract:

2020 – 9-6, 130 IP, 9.35 K/9, 3.74 ERA, 3.91 FIP

2021 – 8-6, 115.1 IP, 9.13 K/9, 3.90 ERA, 4.10 FIP

2022 – 7-6, 113.1 IP, 8.97 K/9, 3.97 ERA, 4.21 FIP

While the trending decline is to be expected, the Dodgers would obviously prefer to see some more innings eaten along the way. However, taking Price on in order to acquire Betts was the ultimate goal of the deal and anything out of the lefty this season will be welcome. The first year of his tenure if likely the most important, as the expectation of developing arms rising to claim more spots in the rotation likely tempers any reliance on Price beyond 2020.

What would you ideally like to see out of David Price in a Dodgers uniform?