Mookie Betts 2020 season: Dodgers have 3 options, one will surprise you

The uncertainty surrounding the 2020 season has created a new paradigm for the Dodgers to consider their options with Mookie Betts.

After spending the last several weeks analyzing every possible facet of the Mookie Betts trade, it’s hard to believe we are back at it again, but a once in a generation crisis has pushed the 2020 season to the brink of cancelation, changing the parameters for how we should consider the centerfielder’s next several months in Los Angeles.

The complicated trade that finally brought the former MVP to LA also included the expensive contract of David Price, cash to offset some of that contract, prospect Brusdar Graterol, outfielder Luke Raley, and the #67th pick from Minnesota. Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong  went back to Boston. The Twins received Kenta Maeda, Jair Camargo, and cash for helping to facilitate the deal.

That’s a mouthful, but for all intents and purposes, the trade came down to Mookie Betts and his looming free agency status before the 2021 season. The Red Sox weren’t confident they could pay him enough to keep him in Boston, while considering the luxury tax, and the Dodgers were looking for a game-changing piece to bring them an elusive modern-day championship, along with the prospect of being able to re-sign the star outfielder long-term, being in a better position than the Red Sox in terms of their luxury tax status.

The parameters of the original trade were made entirely based on the idea that one team was willing to forfeit near-term production in 2020 in favor of future assets in the form of young players and prospects, while the other team was willing to forfeit those future assets in hopes of an immediate-term gain that could turn into a long-term investment.

With the 2020 season at peril due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, the parameters have now changed. Major League Baseball and the Players Association recently agreed on a framework that would turn Betts into a free agent after this season, whether they play games or not. You read that correctly: if the season is canceled, Mookie Betts would enter free agency without playing a single game as a Dodger.

Does this change how the Dodgers should approach their plans, both in the near and long-term for Mookie Betts? Let’s consider the options.

Option 2: Extend Him

A more logical approach to pressing the nuclear button and trying to trade Betts would be to work out an extension before the 2020 season begins, if it does at all. The uncertainty surrounding this season and the ripple effects from lost revenues and a shrinking economy create the real possibility for a fragile free agent market next winter.

While Betts shrugged off the suggestion of an extension upon first arriving in LA, circumstances have changed drastically since then, with players being advanced money by MLB owners to keep their cash flow fluid until baseball returns.

Many believe it will take as much as $400 million to lock up the former MVP. Mike Trout set the market one year ago, signing a 10-year extension that turned into a 12-year, $430 million contract. Betts is the same age as when Trout signed his mega-deal, many believe he will fetch something similar in normal market conditions.

But what if most owners are recovering from a lost season in 2021? Will there be less suitors come the winter in an already small group of teams with deep enough pockets to make a play for Betts? Does this depress his value in the open market? Might he be willing to forgo the entire process to get paid now? It seems reasonable to think so.

Option 3: Wait and See

Probably the most likely of the three options as circumstances might dictate the terms, the Dodgers could just wait and see what happens over the next several months, neither extending Betts, nor trading him, simply hoping he is a part of a special season in 2020, and they can go from there.

While there are no clear benefits to this option other than whatever risk you place on Betts potentially getting injured in 2020, which, God forbid, if serious enough, could alter his long-term value, it is the path teams are usually forced to follow with superstar free agents like Betts.

After winning an MVP award, three Silver Slugger awards, four Gold Gloves, a batting title, appearing in four All-Star games, and winning a world championship, at the prime age of 27, Betts has earned the right to test the market and search for the largest contract possible.

Luckily, for the Dodgers, they happen to be in very good position to offer him the largest contract. They are currently estimated to have $117 million of salary on the books in 2021, well below the luxury tax threshold of $210 million (of course numbers could change based on how revenue is impacted by the coronavirus).

The Dodgers can also hedge their bet on Betts by making him a qualifying offer, and thus, they would receive a compensation pick if he eventually signed elsewhere. They wouldn’t really lose him for nothing at that point, they would at least gain an extra draft pick in what now promises to be a deep 2021 draft.

A lot of options for the Dodgers to consider.

Thanks for reading! Keep checking back for Dodgers news, analysis, and historical perspective as we wait for the season to begin.