Which Dodgers award winners were the most unlikely?

2003 National League Cy Young Award

When someone breaks records, it tends to carry some significant weight when it comes to taking home postseason awards. Such was the case with Eric Gagne‘s 2003 campaign.

Gagne, the erstwhile and be-goggled Dodgers closer, enjoyed a season for the ages in 2003. After finishing the 2002 season with 52 saves, Gagne set his eyes on the single-season saves record. While he put up what was then the second-highest total of all-time (55), he would ultimately come up short of Bobby Thigpen‘s record but equal the National League mark held by John Smoltz. However, he would write his own name in the history books by converting a record 84 consecutive saves between 2002 and 2004.

In 2003, Gagne threw a total of 82.1 innings, working to a 1.20 ERA, a 0.86 FIP, and 14.98 K/9. That left Gagne worth a career-best 4.6 fWAR. When the vote tally was completed, Gagne took home the Cy Young award on 91% share of the vote, including 28 of the 32 first-place votes cast.

While an admirable season, it may not have been completely Cy Young worthy either.

One can argue about the veracity of including a closer in the CY Young calculations, especially when there are at least two starting pitchers that likely should have been considered for the award.

Finishing second and third in the voting were Jason Schmidt of the rival San Francisco Giants and flame-throwing Mark Prior of the Chicago Cubs. Schmidt took home a 46% share of the vote and two first-place votes on the back of a season where he went 17-5 with a 2.34 ERA, 2.64 FIP, a 9.01 K/9, and an fWAR of 6.6 to finish second. Meanwhile, Prior went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA, a 2.47 FIP, a 10.43 K/9, and a 7.8 fWAR while finishing third in the voting.

If the vote were recast with all the data present, Prior would likely be the obvious winner of the 2003 Cy Young vote.

1962 National League Most Valuable Player

There was a time in baseball when the world fell in love with the stolen base. In the 1980s and 1990s, the likes of Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman were chasing the single-season record with fervor, putting up stolen base numbers at a rate that hadn’t been seen in a decade in an attempt to pass the great Lou Brock.

None of that would have mattered if Maury Wills hadn’t set the modern-day record in 1962, breaking Ty Cobbs‘ mark that had stood since 1915. Wills used that to streak toward the record book, and an MVP award.

After making his first All-Star appearance in 1961 and finishing 9th in the MVP vote in the process, Wills quickly rose to the top of the heap in 1962 by hitting .299/.347/.373 with 130 runs scored and the new record of 104 stolen bases. The voters rewarded Wills with a 75% share of the MVP votes, including eight first-place votes, just edging out the second-place finisher by 3% and one first-place vote.

While the stolen base title was indeed impressive, the value of Wills’ contributions to the game was a 5.3 fWAR (11th in the NL), anchored heavily by his baserunning (BsR of 15.6) and defense at shortstop. However, his lack of power at the plate (just 29 of his 208 hits went for extra bases) left him with just a wRC+ of 103, barely above average.

Meanwhile, the second-place finisher put up a season of .304/.384/.615 with 49 home runs, 141 RBI, and 130 runs scored of his own. Coupled with his own stellar defense in center field, this player was worth 10.5 fWAR and a wRC+ of 163. So while the 104 stolen bases were impressive, this player was the true winner of the 1962 National League MVP award.

Dodgers fans should be familiar with this player. He was a nemesis known as Willie Mays.

2011 National League Cy Young Award

Current Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw has put together a Hall of Fame-worthy career through the 2020 season. That included three individual Cy Young Awards and the 2014 National League Most Valuable Player.

While there is no debating Kershaw’s Cy Young wins in 2013 and 2014, or even his MVP choice in 2014, there is less certainty around his award in 2011.

The 2011 National League Cy Young award essentially came down to two players; Kershaw and Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay. Kershaw, as usual, was excellent and tied for the National League lead with 21 wins and put up a 2.28 ERA, a 2.47 FIP, and a 9.57 K/9 over 233.1 innings of work for the Dodgers. That resulted in an fWAR of 7.3 on the season.

Not to be outdone, Halladay threw 233.2 innings on the season, including eight complete games, 18 wins, a 2.35 ERA, a 2.20 FIP, a K/9 of 8.47, and a National League-leading fWAR of 8.7. The biggest difference in wins above replacement value being Halladay’s stellar control (1.35 BB/9 vs Kershaw’s mark of 2.08) and his ability to keep the ball in the park (0.39 HR/9 vs 0.58).

However, what makes Kershaw’s win even more amazing isn’t the fact that he took the award over Halladay, but that he did so by such a wide margin. Kershaw received a 92% share of the ballots versus Halladay’s 59%, and Kershaw also took home 27 of the 32 first-place votes, with Halladay getting four, and Ian Kennedy of the San Diego Padres got the remaining vote. Halladay may have been hurt a bit by teammate Cliff Lee‘s own candidacy, with Lee appearing on 40% of the ballot, but that doesn’t explain the large margin in first-place votes.

So while an argument could be made for either candidate, advanced statistics favor Halladay and he ultimately deserved the win by a hair. The voters obviously saw it much differently.