Mookie Betts: Why he might sign one-year bridge deal in 2021

Mookie Betts was set to become the one of the richest players in baseball next winter, but market conditions could change that.

When the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts, as Boston fans will remind you, it was essentially a salary dump—a maneuver that seems unnatural to the Red Sox, who have evolved into big market spenders to keep up with their hated rivals in New York.

The 2018 American League MVP is set to become a free agent in 2021, and the Red Sox weren’t ready to pay the luxury tax penalty it would take to re-sign him to a potential record-setting contract.

Around the time when the trade that sent Betts to the Dodgers was finalized, it was believed the three-time Silver Slugger would fetch more than $400 million in a long-term deal after the upcoming season.

Of course, that was before the novel coronavirus upset everyday life across the country, shutting down businesses, forcing people to shelter-in-place, and preventing Major League Baseball from opening its doors in 2020.

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Whether a season is eventually played or not, revenue will be dramatically impacted by the pandemic. It’s possible, even if games do resume, they are played in front of empty stadiums. With ticket sales representing a large percentage of the league’s overall revenue pot, it doesn’t take an economist to predict a downturn in salaries over the near-term.

Given the new market conditions, it might make sense for Betts to punt his search for a record-setting contract until 2022 when revenue streams have had time to recover. In doing so, he could sign a one-year bridge deal, perhaps at an inflated annual rate, and then finally sign a long-term pact the following winter.

For the Dodgers, this might create a tenuous negotiating situation, as, theoretically, more teams would be in play to sign Betts on a one-year deal than there would be in pursuit of signing him to a mega, long-term contract.

The counterargument to all of this is that teams with immediate cash flow concerns might be more willing to sign players to deals that are heavily back-loaded, and thus, longer than one year in length. Betts, himself, could be in search of cash flow, if he ends up losing a significant portion of the $27 million he is owed this season.

For now, the Boys in Blue are hopeful Betts at least gets a chance to play in 2020, so the offseason trade that sent Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs, and Connor Wong to Boston wasn’t made for naught. But don’t be surprised if the long-term answer to where Betts will play isn’t settled until 2022.