Kershaw or Koufax: Which one would you choose?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a rich history of starting pitching from Sandy Koufax to Clayton Kershaw, but if you could only have one, which one would you take?

They are both tall, left-handed pitchers. They both wore Dodger blue throughout their careers, one still going strong. They have both won Cy Young awards, MVP awards, ERA titles, Triple Crowns, and have appeared in numerous All-Star games.

Sandy Koufax and Clayton Kershaw.

A Hall-of-Famer and a future Hall-of-Famer. But if you could choose only one pitcher to lead your rotation for an entire season, who would you take?

Before we make the case for each pitcher, it’s amazing to list the similarities.

While Kershaw still has time to add to his resume, at 32 years of age, he has now pitched in the same number of seasons that Koufax pitched with the Dodgers, twelve. Looking at their career totals side-by-side, the closeness between the two starters is striking.

Kershaw has pitched within 50 innings of Koufax’s final number when he retired. It is the perfect cut-off point to compare the two legendary hurlers. Of course, Koufax pitched during a generation when pitchers finished what they started, so while he started 30 less games, he has pitched more total innings. Nearly 45% of Koufax’s starts ended in a complete game, versus only 7% for Kershaw. But that’s where the major differences end.

The two southpaws are separated by four career wins. They are within 39 allowed hits of each other, and within 68 strikeouts. Kershaw’s career ERA of 2.44 is only 0.32 runs better than Koufax. Their fielding independent ERA is within 0.5 runs.

Koufax has won three Cy Young Awards, so has Kershaw. Koufax has earned the rare feat of winning the league’s Most Valuable Player Award as a pitcher, so has Kershaw. Koufax has won the ERA title five times, so has Kershaw. One is a seven-time All-Star, another is an eight-time All-Star.

Comparing these two pitchers is splitting hairs. But let’s make the case for each.

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The case for Kershaw

In Game 1 of the 2017 World Series, Clayton Kershaw led the Dodgers to a 3-1 victory at Dodger Stadium over the Houston Astros. He was nearly un-hittable that night, striking out eleven, walking none, and allowing only three hits over seven innings of work. It appeared the postseason cloud that has hovered over him throughout his career had finally cleared. A few more Dodgers wins, perhaps another performance like Game 1, and he would have led the Dodgers to their first World Series title since 1988, probably winning the MVP award in the process.

Then the Dodgers returned to Houston for Game 5. You know, the place where the Astros were caught cheating. Kershaw was tagged for six runs in that game. Looking back, it seems obvious the Astros knew what was coming. They didn’t swing and miss at a single offspeed pitch (watch).

Of course, narratives can quickly change. Instead of Kershaw proving he could lead his team to a championship as a clutch pitcher, his reputation as failing in the big spot remains. Important context to consider, though, when making sweeping judgments about Kershaw’s postseason credentials.

While Koufax has Kershaw beat in the big spot, the playoffs only represent a small part of a pitcher’s resume. Kershaw has started 344 regular season games, and counting. Over a comparable workload, the left-hander from Texas has more wins, more strikeouts, and a lower ERA than Koufax. When you adjust his ERA relative to the league in which he pitches, Kershaw is even more impressive with an ERA- of 63 compared to Koufax at 75 (100 is league average).

While Kershaw has won the same number of Cy Young Awards as Koufax, he has come in second place in voting twice—Koufax next best finish was third (the first Cy Young Award winner was honored in 1956 during Koufax’s second season).

Kershaw has been consistent since his first full season in the majors as a 21-year-old in 2009. Last year was the first season after a ten-year run that he had an ERA above 3.00 (and only by a sliver at 3.03). Koufax took some time to find his legendary status, pitching to an ERA over 4.00 during his first two full seasons working primarily as a starter; his ERA below 3.00 only five times.

If you could choose only one pitcher to lead your rotation for an entire season, you wouldn’t be wrong to pick Kershaw. He would almost certainly dominate throughout the regular season, and given the right chance, he might shake off that big game reputation, too.