Dodgers: Three players with milestones at risk if 2020 season is lost

Clayton Kershaw

Chasing: 300 wins, Dodger record in wins, strikeouts

For the Dodgers, the player perhaps most impacted by a lost 2020 season would be Clayton Kershaw. The southpaw is 131 wins short of reaching the 300 mark as a starter, a number that still matters to pitchers even if advanced metrics tell a better story about their overall performance. Using Szymborski’s probabilities, Kershaw’s chances of reaching 300 wins drops from 30 percent if the 2020 season is played, to only 22 percent if the season is lost.

Either way, it would be difficult for Kershaw to accumulate nearly the same number of wins he already has (169) over the back-end of his career, but what about 200 wins or even 250? The left-hander is signed through 2021, when he will be 33, turning 34-years-old, heading into free agency. Perhaps he looks to sign one more deal before calling it quits? After winning 25 games over the previous two seasons, he needs 31 more wins to reach 200 for his career, a more difficult task if he loses the entire 2020 season and needs to put together a string of 10+ win seasons in 2021 and beyond.

The Dodger record for pitching wins is 233 set by Don Sutton. Only Sutton and Drysdale (209) have more than 200 wins in a Dodger uniform. Kershaw currently ranks fifth in franchise history, eleven shy of Brickyard Kennedy, and 21 short of Dazzy Vance. While Kershaw will probably climb to third all-time in Dodger wins whether a 2020 season is played or not, he needs all of the opportunities he can get to add as many as 65 more wins to surpass Sutton.

Another category that seems out of reach on a larger scale but within grasp in the Dodger record books is total strikeouts. Kershaw is third all-time among Dodger pitchers with 2,464 K’s. He needs 233 more to set the all-time club record, also held by Sutton. Under normal conditions, it wouldn’t be a problem for Kershaw to reach that plateau over the remaining two seasons on his contract—he recorded 189 strike outs last season. However, if there’s no baseball in 2020, it would require a superlative season for him to reach 233 in 2021, meaning he would probably fall just short, unless he ended up signing another deal to pitch past his age 33 season in Los Angeles.

For Kershaw to reach 3000 strikeouts, he needs to accumulate 536 more K’s. Szymbroski assumes he gets there no matter what happens with the upcoming season, but lowers his odds of reaching 4000 strikeouts from 38 percent to 32 percent. Again, if no season is played in 2020, Kershaw would need to extend his career beyond his mid-thirties to reach the 3000 strikeout milestone, something he could realistically achieve in three full seasons. It seems unlikely he would get to 4000, especially if he loses 2020.

Cody Bellinger

Chasing: 500 home runs, Dodger record in home runs

In just three seasons, Cody Bellinger has already accumulated 111 home runs while playing for the Dodgers. He is coming off an historic season at the plate when he hit the third most long balls in Dodger history (47) and won the National League MVP Award.

His impressive power numbers so early in his career place him on a path that could end with over 500 home runs. That is, if he has enough opportunities to get there. The left-handed slugger would see his chances of reaching 500 HRs decrease from a flip of a coin (51%) to only 41 percent if the 2020 season is lost. He needs 389 more home runs to reach the Hall-of-Fame power benchmark. To put that number in perspective, it would require him to hit at least 39 home runs over the next ten seasons, a tall task. Losing a season in his prime would surely put a damper on his chances.

From a Dodgers perspective, the 24-year-old needs 279 more homers to surpass Duke Snider as the all-time leading power hitter in Dodgers history, a realistic goal for a young player who is off to an impressive start. Assuming Bellinger plays until he is 36, so thirteen more seasons, he would need to average 21 home runs each year to reach the record. If the 2020 season is lost, and we use the same assumptions about his playing time, he would need to average 23 dingers each season, still realistic, but a bit more difficult.

In reality, Bellinger will probably see his home run totals follow an uneven path over the course of his career, spiking during his prime playing days. After hitting 39, 25, and 47 over the last three years, it would seem 2020 would represent another opportunity for him to add a large number to his home run total.

Could a lost season interrupt his momentum and slow him down? Possibly. But the fact he is so young, and can realistically play for another 12-15 seasons, he has plenty of time to slowly build towards 390 home runs.

The bigger question might be whether he does it while remaining a Dodger. While you wouldn’t expect the front office to part ways with their rising star, it’s impossible to know what lies ahead in terms of contract negotiations and injuries that could slow him down or set him on a different path. Another reason why every year of his prime wearing a Dodger uniform is important toward climbing all-time lists.

Mookie Betts

Chasing: 2500 hits, 3000 hits

Let’s close our eyes and imagine a world where Mookie Betts signs a long-term contract to stay with the Dodgers for the rest of his career. The 2018 MVP could then cross some significant milestones while wearing Dodger blue. Is 2500 hits over his career possible? What about 3000?

Using Szymborski’s probabilities, the likelihood of Betts reaching 2500 hits drops from 60 percent to 53 percent if the 2020 season is lost. It’s a long shot for him to reach 3000 hits, either way, but a fighting 30 percent chance becomes a 24 percent probability by losing an entire season.

Betts is currently just under 1000 hits with 965 over his first 5+ seasons in the majors. He is averaging 182 hits per seasons since 2015. He would need to keep that pace for eight more seasons to reach 2500 hits, and eleven more seasons to compile 3000 knocks.

Only 27-years-old, Betts will likely be playing into his late thirties. Expected to sign a mega, multi-year deal in the offseason, those type of contracts usually have long term lengths to spread out the massive dollar amount. I would expect Betts to sign an 8-10 year contract. The question is whether he can keep up the same production into his late thirties.

The all-time record for hits in a Dodger uniform is 2,804, a number Betts surely wouldn’t reach in any scenario. However, he could climb up to second or third in Dodgers history if he is able to accumulate 2000 more hits with the Boys in Blue, again contingent on how many seasons he gets to play with Los Angeles.

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Obviously, losing a year of his prime age sitting in quarantine doesn’t help his ability to rack up more hits. That said, if the 2020 season is canceled, it’s hard to say how the aging curve will look for players who are one year older, but have also played one less year of baseball.