Dodgers: Three players with milestones at risk if 2020 season is lost

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 25: National League MVP Cody Bellinger of the Los Angeles Dodgers speaks during the 2020 97th annual New York Baseball Writers' Dinner on January 25, 2020 Sheraton New York in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 25: National League MVP Cody Bellinger of the Los Angeles Dodgers speaks during the 2020 97th annual New York Baseball Writers' Dinner on January 25, 2020 Sheraton New York in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
4 of 4
Next
Dodgers
BOSTON, MA – APRIL 11: Manager Alex Cora presents Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox with the 2018 Most Valuable Player award before a game against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 11, 2019 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /

Mookie Betts

Chasing: 2500 hits, 3000 hits

Let’s close our eyes and imagine a world where Mookie Betts signs a long-term contract to stay with the Dodgers for the rest of his career. The 2018 MVP could then cross some significant milestones while wearing Dodger blue. Is 2500 hits over his career possible? What about 3000?

Using Szymborski’s probabilities, the likelihood of Betts reaching 2500 hits drops from 60 percent to 53 percent if the 2020 season is lost. It’s a long shot for him to reach 3000 hits, either way, but a fighting 30 percent chance becomes a 24 percent probability by losing an entire season.

Betts is currently just under 1000 hits with 965 over his first 5+ seasons in the majors. He is averaging 182 hits per seasons since 2015. He would need to keep that pace for eight more seasons to reach 2500 hits, and eleven more seasons to compile 3000 knocks.

Only 27-years-old, Betts will likely be playing into his late thirties. Expected to sign a mega, multi-year deal in the offseason, those type of contracts usually have long term lengths to spread out the massive dollar amount. I would expect Betts to sign an 8-10 year contract. The question is whether he can keep up the same production into his late thirties.

The all-time record for hits in a Dodger uniform is 2,804, a number Betts surely wouldn’t reach in any scenario. However, he could climb up to second or third in Dodgers history if he is able to accumulate 2000 more hits with the Boys in Blue, again contingent on how many seasons he gets to play with Los Angeles.

Obviously, losing a year of his prime age sitting in quarantine doesn’t help his ability to rack up more hits. That said, if the 2020 season is canceled, it’s hard to say how the aging curve will look for players who are one year older, but have also played one less year of baseball.

facebooktwitterreddit