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Should the Dodgers consider trading Kenley Jansen?

By Jeffrey Bellone |
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 03: Kenley Jansen #74 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after defeating the San Diego Padres 4-3 in a game at PETCO Park on May 03, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 03: Kenley Jansen #74 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after defeating the San Diego Padres 4-3 in a game at PETCO Park on May 03, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
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Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Coming off his worst season as a closer, Kenley Jansen is looking for a bounce-back season. But should the Dodgers trade him before it is too late?

If there is one area of weakness in the Dodgers juggernaut over the past few seasons, it is in the bullpen. It hasn’t been bad, but to the high standards of the rest of the roster, it hasn’t been as strong.

Over the past two seasons, the Dodgers have the most blown saves in baseball. While part of that could be explained by the number of opportunities–when you are winning a lot of games, you have a greater chance to lose some of them–it is worth noting that the San Francisco Giants, who have been terrible, have the second most blown saves in that time.

Of course, the rhythm of the bullpen is mostly set by Kenley Jansen. After two exceptional seasons in 2016 and 2017, the Dodgers closer has come back down to earth over his past two campaigns, with 2019 his worst season since taking over the closing duties in Los Angeles. His inconsistent performance leading manager Dave Roberts to lose faith in him during the playoffs, perhaps costing the Dodgers the series against the Nationals when he was slow to pull reliever Joe Kelly in a decisive Game 5.

Jansen entered the offseason with some question marks surrounding his future with the only franchise he has ever known. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman giving a lukewarm response on his future shortly after the postseason.

However, it was Jansen, himself, and not Friedman, who controlled the closer’s destiny. He had an opt-out clause in his contract that would have allowed him to become a free agent. Instead, he wisely chose to stay the course and earn $38 million over the next two seasons.

With Jansen locked in, it turns out the Dodgers do have a decision to make on the closer. Do they keep him in Los Angeles as a mainstay in the bullpen for two more seasons? Or do they try to gain some assets and/or financial flexibility by trading him before it is too late?

What does too late mean? Glad you asked. Let’s start with why it might make sense to trade the 32-year-old right-hander.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 28: Kenley Jansen #74 and Russell Martin #55 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates defeating the San Francisco Giants 2-0 at Oracle Park on September 28, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 28: Kenley Jansen #74 and Russell Martin #55 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates defeating the San Francisco Giants 2-0 at Oracle Park on September 28, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

Why it might make sense to trade Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is signed on a five-year deal through 2021, but this next season (2020) is an important one for trade considerations. After MLB and the Player’s Association agreed to grant full service time in 2020 whether a season is played or not, Jansen is set to become a ten-year veteran who has played at least five seasons with the same team (he has played all ten years of his career in LA).

By becoming a “10-5” player, Jansen earns veto power on any trade after this season. This means the Dodgers are stuck with him as a 33-year old bullpen arm in 2021 making over $20 million, unless Jansen agrees to be traded somewhere, or there’s reason to keep him.

Knowing the market to trade him in the future might be limited, perhaps it is time for the Dodgers to consider moving their closer before it is too late. After all, the traditional role of the closer is becoming a bit obsolete. What is most important is to identify arms who can record key outs during the late innings of games, whether that be in the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings of games. Pedro Baez has proven he can operate in that role. So has Joe Kelly, last year’s performance against the Nationals notwithstanding.

The Dodgers could also strike lightning in a bottle with young flame-thrower Brusdar Graterol, who they acquired in the deal that sent Kenta Maeda to Minnesota. It would be a lot to expect him to step into a closer role, but again, piecing together a successful bullpen is more about counting outs than assigning specific roles these days.

Blake Treinen was also added in the offseason. Someone who could step up into a set-up or closing role if he can return anything close to the 2018 version of himself, when he was un-hittable with a microscopic 0.78 ERA over 68 appearances in Oakland.

LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 22: Kenley Jansen #74 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. The Dodgers won 7-4. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 22: Kenley Jansen #74 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. The Dodgers won 7-4. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

Why trading Kenley Jansen is crazy

Trading Kenley Jansen before the Dodgers are locked into paying him through 2021 sounds all good and dandy on paper, but no matter how disappointed you have been in Jansen’s game recently, he is still a legitimate back-of-the-bullpen reliever with experience in pressure situations who the Dodgers would have an impossible time replacing in the near-term.

Teams looking to win a championship don’t give up on veteran arms toward the end of their contracts; they look to acquire as many bullpen options as they can to bolster an area of utmost importance during a pennant race and postseason.

If the Dodgers traded Jansen, who is really going to replace him? Pedro Baez? Joe Kelly? What then happens to the set-up role? It would be a nice story to see Blake Treinen rebound, but it’s far from a guarantee. A weakness would suddenly become a huge gap if Jansen was traded. Of course, president Andrew Friedman could look to acquire another reliever to replace Jansen, but at what cost?

With Jansen picking up his $38 million, two-year option this past offseason, even with reduced pay in 2020 from a shortened season, he is a pricey addition for another club. If Friedman wanted to fetch anything of positive value in return for the closer, the Dodgers would probably end up being responsible for most of his contract anyway.

The only teams who would be looking to acquire a player like Jansen this season would be contending teams, or the same teams the Dodgers would be competing against to win a World Series.

Meanwhile, Jansen spent the offseason trying to improve his mechanics in hopes of a bounce-back season in 2020. He made the pilgrimage to Driveline Baseball and the results were immediate. He struck out eleven of the eighteen batters he faced over six appearances in Spring Training, allowing only one earned run.

The Dodgers will need Jansen to rebound in 2020, if a season is actually played, for them to compete for a championship. Now is not the time to trade him, it’s the time to count on him more than ever.

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