Dodgers: Five way too early 2021 free agent targets

Tommy La Stella

With Justin Turner due up for a new contract at the age of 36, it might be time for the Dodgers to get a little younger at the hot corner position. While Turner is probably the best third baseman in next year’s market – in fact, it’s not really close – Andrew Friedman should be wary about signing him to a long-term deal.

The challenge is finding a third baseman to replace Turner, who has been a reliable cog in the Dodgers lineup since 2014. He provides an excellent clubhouse presence, veteran leadership on the field, and a potent bat. Replacing him isn’t as easy as signing the next kid off the block. And unfortunately for the Dodgers, while their farm system is rich in talent, they don’t really have a ready-made third basemen set to take the leap to everyday duties next season.

Enter Tommy La Stella.

The Angels infielder is coming off his best season in the majors, which would have received more attention had he not broken his leg halfway through it. Four years younger than Turner, La Stella is an interesting candidate to take the reigns at Dodger Stadium. Last season, he split time between second and third base, but with Anthony Rendon signed long-term, he is set to play a platoon role with David Fletcher at second whenever 2020 gets going.

La Stella is projected to be worth 2.3 wins over the next three seasons by ZiPs, so the Dodgers would be hoping he can outperform those projections a bit. If baseball is played in 2020, it will be a good indicator of whether the first half of his 2019 season was a sign of a player ready to take the next step in productivity.

La Stella is a much better third baseman than he is playing the middle of the infield. He could make it his permanent home with the Dodgers.

Marcus Stroman

The Dodgers are hoping the back-end of their 2020 rotation assembles into a legitimate staff. However, there are plenty of question marks. What does David Price still have left in the tank? Can Julio Urias develop into a full-time starter? What about Alex Wood? Does he prove worthy of signing long-term after inking a one-year deal to prove he can stay healthy?

Sure, Dustin May is on his way up. Tony Gonsolin is ready to emerge as a full-time starter as well. But if the Dodgers want to keep their staff competitive for another championship run next season, they would be wise to add some veteran depth.

Marcus Stroman might be their answer.

The 29-year-old was traded to the Mets in the middle of last season, a surprising move for a team that wasn’t really in the hunt for the postseason. He could find a new home again this year, but either way, he will enter the offseason as a free agent, perhaps the best starter in a relatively weak pitching market.

After a dud 2018 season, Stroman bounced back last year between his time in Toronto and New York. He finished the year with a 10-13 record, but strong underlying statistics. He struck out a career high 7.8 batters per nine innings, while walking only 2.8 batters per nine. His ERA shrunk to 3.22 after reaching 5.54 the season before.

The key with Stroman is having a strong infield defense behind him, something he doesn’t have with the Mets. His sinker is one of the best in the business, resulting in a high ground ball rate. Corey Seager and Gavin Lux could help him become an effective pitcher at Dodger Stadium.

DJ LeMahieu

If the Dodgers end up losing or decide to let Justin Turner and Enrique Hernandez walk next offseason, they will need reinforcements in the infield. Who better to fill a bunch of holes than super-utility man DJ LeMahieu?

Signed to a two-year, $24 million contract with the Yankees before last season, he played at least 40 games at three different positions (second base, third base, and first base). He also batted an impressive .327/.375/.518 with 26 home runs and 109 RBIs. Another season like that, and the 31-year-old could be looking at a lucrative contract next offseason.

While LeMahieu isn’t going to sell tickets at the box office, he is a manager’s best friend, as a player who can do a little bit of everything. And if you’re worried that his 2019 totals were a fluke, all of the underlying metrics suggests they were not. He hit the ball harder than 90 percent of the league last season, leading to an expected batting average of .322. In other words, based on his magnitude of contact, his actual batting average of .327 is right where it should be—he didn’t survive on lucky hits.

The 31-year-old infielder didn’t just field many positions, he covered them well. His outs above average (OAA) ranked in the 90th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. He had positive defensive metrics at first base, second base, and third base last season.

Ideally, the Dodgers would be able to bring back Justin Turner on a short-term deal, and then a player like LeMahieu could become a super-utility man who could fill in for players all over the diamond, and provide right-handed support for Gavin Lux and Max Muncy.

Robbie Ray

Kenley Jansen had his worst season as a closer last season. Pedro Baez is set to become a free agent next winter. And behind those two, there is Joe Kelly, who, well, is Joe Kelly. The Dodgers bullpen gets thin quickly after this season. They need to hope Brusdar Graterol provides relief, literally and figuratively, as a young flame-thrower.

An intriguing option on the free agent market next offseason is Robbie Ray. The Diamondbacks left-hander has pitched exclusively as a starter during his career, but he could have a future in the bullpen. Ray has a dangerous arsenal of pitches that can get hitters to swing and miss often. His strikeout percentage ranked in the 88th percentile last season, according to Baseball Savant.

Signing Ray would allow the Dodgers to add depth to their rotation in the near-term while potentially solving a problem in their bullpen in the long-term. Only 29 years old next year, the tall, southpaw has a lot of innings ahead of him. He lost time toward the end of the 2019 season, but it was a blister issue, not something in his arm that you worry about lingering into 2020 and beyond.

If the Dodgers can acquire Ray, they would be stealing a key piece from a division rival’s rotation, while either helping their own starting staff or possibly finding a bullpen arm for the future. Of course, Ray would need to agree to all of this, but his performance will lead him to the right place.

Marcell Ozuna

If the Dodgers are somehow unable to bring back Mookie Betts (don’t even say it), and Joc Pederson is traded before then, or walks, they will be in need of an outfielder. Signed to a one-year, $18 million “bet on himself” deal with Atlanta, Marcell Ozuna will be looking for a payday after the 2020 season. He reportedly turned down several multi-year offers over the offseason.

The two-time All Star was considered one of the best young stars in the Major Leagues after his final season with the Marlins in 2017. He hit .312/.376/.548 with 37 home runs and 124 RBIs that year, before being shipped to St. Louis. While still a valuable player, he has been unable to match the heights he reached before departing Miami.

Still only 29-years-old, he should have plenty left in the tank to contribute to a contender over the next several seasons of his career. He was planning on using his 2020 campaign to prove that, which will obviously be a shortened exercise, at best. Perhaps the Dodgers could cash in on Ozuna on a team-friendly deal after the outfielder missed out on long-term security last winter to bet on himself in a season when everyone’s paycheck is going to take a hit.

Should the Dodgers consider trading Kenley Jansen?

Coming off his worst season as a closer, Kenley Jansen is looking for a bounce-back season. But should the Dodgers trade him before it is too late?

Ideally, the Dodgers re-sign Mookie Betts, find a way to trade A.J. Pollock, and keep Joc Pederson. At least, that’s what many fans would prefer. But if best wishes don’t materialize, Ozuna becomes an intriguing candidate on the free agent market.