Dodgers: Pros and cons of trading Joc Pederson (again)

After nearly dealing outfielder Joc Pederson in the offseason, should the Los Angeles Dodgers look to try to trade him again?

The Los Angeles Dodgers thought they had traded outfielder Joc Pederson during the offseason, but the deal ultimately fell through once the Mookie Betts trade with the Red Sox was renegotiated.

In the original deal, Pederson, along with pitcher Ross Stripling and prospect Andy Pages, would have moved down the freeway to Anaheim in exchange for infielder Luis Rengifo and at least one prospect. Once the deal between the Dodgers and Angels fell apart, LA was left in an awkward position of keeping Pederson and Stripling as pieces on their 2020 roster, despite letting both players know they were ready to trade them.

With rosters currently frozen due to the coronavirus pandemic, players are stuck in their homes, as well as with their current teams. However, eventually the trade market will open up again, and I wonder if the Dodgers would continue to monitor interest in Pederson.

MLB could institute new trade rules that make it more challenging for the Dodgers to find a new home for their left-handed power hitter, but assuming general managers can juggle their rosters, it’s possible Pederson could find a new home by the end of the 2020 season.

Let’s take a look at the pros and cons of trading the young outfielder (again).

Pro (Trade Him!): Recouping assets

While there is growing optimism about a 2020 season, it will most certainly be a shortened season, impacting a team like the Dodgers who are built to prove out their talent over a 162-game schedule.

Does the relative value of Mookie Betts on a potential one-year rental decrease over a shortened season? Would the Dodgers have made the same trade knowing what they know now? There is a risk Betts never plays for the Dodgers before becoming a free agent next offseason.

President Andrew Friedman gave up a promising young outfielder in Alex Verdugo, along with two prospects for Betts’ services over what will now, at best, be a few months of playing time.

Perhaps pulling the trigger on a trade to send Joc Pederson out of town can help the Dodgers recoup some of the assets they lost in the Betts deal. With Pederson due to become a free agent next offseason, it would also give the Dodgers a chance to gain long-term value, rather than risk losing him, like Betts, for nothing.

The Dodgers have several candidates to fill in for Pederson’s at-bats in the lineup, so they could maintain their ability to compete at a high level this season, while restocking the prospect pool they were forced to skim in the Betts’ deal.

Con (Keep him!): Pederson is really good

When you have Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts to put in your outfield, it’s easy to forget about an unspectacular but steady player like Joc Pederson. Coming off his best season in the majors, he could be on the cusp of taking his game to the next level.

The 28-year-old left-hander has proven to be a consistent power hitter for the Boys in Blue. If he stays with the Dodgers, he has a real good chance of climbing among the top-ten home run leaders in franchise history. He currently has 123 career homers, placing him tied for 23rd in Dodger history. After connecting on 36 long balls last season, he doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

The Palo Alto native has produced 5.8 wins above replacement value over the past two seasons, fourth most among Dodger positional players. He is coming off a stellar performance in 2019 when he was worth 3.0 WAR, posting career highs in hits (112), batting average (.249), slugging percentage (.538), RBIs (74), and home runs (36).

Maybe the Dodgers should just keep Pederson, sign him to a long-term deal in the offseason, and create a dynamic trio with Bellinger, and hopefully, Betts, that will fill out their outfield for years to come.

Pro (Trade him!): Allow others to shine

The whole idea of trading Joc Pederson is to open up playing time for other players on the Dodgers roster. While many Dodger fans would probably prefer to see AJ Pollock shipped out of town, his contract makes it more difficult. Pollock is set to make $45 million over the next three seasons, and also has a player option for $10 million more in 2023.

Paying Pollock that kind of money to play a strict platoon role with Pederson is not ideal, especially with Joc bringing in close to $8 million, himself, next season. While salaries will be adjusted to account for a shortened (or canceled) 2020 season, it would be prudent for the Dodgers to invest their salary dollars somewhere else on the diamond. There is no shortage of talent in the outfield with Cody Bellinger, and now, Mookie Betts, roaming the spacious dimensions of Dodger Stadium.

Chris Taylor is another player who could benefit from more playing time. With Pederson and Pollock set to take the majority of reps in left field, Taylor entered Spring Training looking to find at-bats at second base, perhaps against left-handed pitchers. If Gavin Lux takes off as a rookie, Taylor could find benefit from Pederson’s departure by playing more often in left field.

The Dodgers also have Enrique Hernandez and Matt Beaty as options for the outfield. Beaty could see more plate appearances against lefties in the absence of Pederson.

So trade him or keep him?

Should the Dodgers try to trade Joc Pederson again?

As you can see from the preceeding slides, there are several factors to consider in putting the 28-year-old back on the trade market, where it seems like he has lived over his entire tenure with the Dodgers.

There is no question that he has talent. He is a unique power hitter against right-handed pitching, but his platoon splits are so severe, he is incapable of playing an everyday role. Pederson only saw 50 plate appearances against lefties last season, slugging an anemic .265 in those situations.

Pederson is set to become a free agent next offseason, whether the 2020 season is played or not, so if the Dodgers can find a trade partner, whenever rosters are unfrozen, they can at least try to recoup some assets in return for a player they could very soon lose for nothing.

That said, the Dodgers are in a position to compete for a championship this season. So the added value of keeping Pederson’s powerful bat in the lineup against righties might outweigh the return he could potentially fetch.

By moving Alex Verdugo in the Mookie Betts trade, the logjam in the outfield is less severe than it could have been had the Dodgers ended up with both Verdugo and Betts following the trade. A productive platoon opportunity now exists for Pederson and Pollock in left field. I would keep him in Los Angeles, if I was Andrew Friedman.