Dodgers: 5 Questions the Team Must Answer When Play Resumes

How will the Dodgers bullpen shape up in 2020?

On paper, the Dodgers bullpen looked fairly solid in 2019, ranking 5th in reliever ERA (3.85), 1st in WHIP (1.12), fifth in home runs allowed (73). With the club winning league-best and team-record 106 games last season, the relief corp was masked in a lot of ways.

However, the team tallied the fourth-most blown saves last season, with only the Athletics, Mariners, and Nationals having more than the 28 saves Los Angeles relievers blew. Dodgers relievers also ranked 21st in baseball with a Win Probability Added of -0.21 despite ranking middle of the pack in both average leverage index (pLI) and leverage index when entering the game (gmLI). Essentially, this means that Dodgers relievers typically came in during standard relief situations without having to enter under high leverage conditions.

Perhaps it was that lack of tests during the regular season which provided the back-drop of the bullpen failures in the NLDS. As we previously discussed, Dodgers relievers surrendered 15 runs over 18.2 innings of work during the series. Unfortunately, this is the last picture that Dodgers fans have of the team’s relievers, leaving many to question where the crew stands to enter 2020.

For their part, the Dodgers front office understood that it needed to add some higher leverage arms to the bullpen. However, those two arms come with just as many questions in their own right.

The Dodgers inked Blake Treinen as a free agent, in hopes that he could become an answer in the set-up group. Treinen is only one year removed from an otherworldly performance that saw him put up a 3.6 fWAR on the back of a 0.78 ERA, a 1.82 FIP, an 11.2 K/9 ratio, and 38 saves for the Athletics. However, he crashed down to Earth in 2019 (4.91 ERA, 5.14 FIP, 1.33 HR/9) and lost his closer role before being non-tendered this past winter. The Dodgers are hoping that he can find some semblance of his 2018 magic with a change of scenery.

Likewise, Los Angeles took a flyer in acquiring right-hander Brusdar Graterol from the Minnesota Twins. The move cost the Dodgers a versatile piece in Kenta Maeda, but it is a high-upside move.

Graterol, who was once ticketed for the Red Sox in the Betts trade before Boston raised issues with his medicals, will ultimately slot into a bullpen role with the Dodgers instead. He’s a sneaky acquisition with an interesting arsenal that could make him a future closer in the majors, but he also comes with a lack of MLB experience and question marks about whether he could be a starter or a reliever in the big leagues.

The Dodgers are hoping that the team can add the pair of Treinen and Graterol to Pedro Baez and a rebounding (hopefully) Joe Kelly to form a solid set-up group ahead of closer Kenley Jansen. Their success as a team will depend on this group not only finding their niche but also keeping it together when the postseason hits.

Is Will Smith ready to be the full-time catcher for the Dodgers in 2020?

There were few rookie call-ups that made as immediate an impact on their teams as did Will Smith for the Dodgers last season.

Called up on May 28th, Smith made his MLB debut memorable by going 2-for-4 with a double and a run scored. Four days later, he hit a walk-off home run against the Philadelphia Phillies.

All told, Smith would appear in 54 games and account for an fWAR of 1.7, hitting .253/.337/.571 with 15 home runs and 42 RBI. By comparison, Austin Barnes made 75 appearances with a 0.7 fWAR and a slash line of .203/.293/.340, five home runs, and 25 RBI.

The writing on the wall points to Smith being the primary backstop for the Dodgers in 2020, as he is inevitably the future of the team behind the plate. His stick is obviously ready for the big leagues and will provide a major upgrade over the anemic Barnes (132 wRC+ compared to 68). Smith will need to get his strikeouts (26.5%) in line a bit more, but he’s shown to make significant improvements in that department after repeating a level throughout his minor league career as well.

The question comes is whether or not the Dodgers will trust him out there four out of every five days and how that will affect his performance at the plate and behind it. A shortened season may be the best potential case for Smith’s development, allowing the team to carry another catcher and potentially rest their star prospect a bit more often. And with the rumors of a potential DH used in 2020, Smith’s bat could be slotted into the line-up even during off days.

Is Gavin Lux going to step up to become the Dodgers latest Rookie of the Year?

The current iteration of the Los Angeles Dodgers has a solid history of developing their own talent and having them make immediate contributions to the team upon call-up. With names like Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, and the aforementioned Will Smith occupying real estate on the Dodgers roster, there is a long line of success with prospects turning into studs on this team.

Is Gavin Lux about to become the latest addition to that club?

For what it is worth, Lux has already gotten a little bit of trial by fire. Called up the Dodgers as part of the September 1st roster expansions last season, Lux hit .240/.305/.400 with a pair of home runs and nine RBI down the stretch. He made enough of an impression on the Dodgers that they gave him a roster spot during the postseason.

While the Major League numbers don’t jump off the page, Lux is considered one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball and ranks as the number two prospect in the game entering 2020. In three minor league campaigns, Lux has done nothing but hit, putting up a ridiculous slash line of .305/.383/.483 and struck out in just 18.3% of plate appearances.

With that Lux will be thrust into the starting second base job for the Dodgers in 2020. For a player regarded for his contact skills and feel at the plate, Lux will be depended up to be the next cog in the wheel for the Dodgers in their quest for the World Series. The pressure will be tempered by the presence of both Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor, who can spell him when he needs to clear his head. However, the job will be Lux’s to lose in 2020 and beyond.

Will the Dodgers extend any impending free agents during the 2020 season?

If and when the 2020 season gets underway, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have their eyes firmly set on the big prize at the end of the season. However, the team would be remiss a bit to have their gaze diverted a bit toward the future as well.

Entering the 2020 season, the Dodgers have an interesting pool of potential free agents. While Mookie Betts remains the biggest piece on the chessboard, and the biggest question mark for the team especially if a season isn’t played, the team also has to contend with the potential losses of Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Pedro Baez, Alex Wood, Blake Treinen, and more to free agency.

Betts will undoubtedly command a qualifying offer at minimum, as he’s already stated that he is intent on testing the free-agent market (although the stance was formed pre-COVID). The Dodgers may look at potential extensions for Turner, Baez, and maybe Wood, but there are only so many dollars to go around and other factors may play into the decisions abound.

Justin Turner seems to be an obvious extension candidate and one which we previously explored a bit. With the Dodgers likely looking at at least two years before Kody Hoese is ready to climb into the role, a two-year plus option deal with Turner would be ideal and could fit into both parties’ desires. It keeps a face of the franchise in place through his productive years and also paves the way for the next great Dodgers prospect.

The futures of the other players are a little fuzzier. Pederson is destined to leave and look for a full-time role with another organization, especially after a failed trade this winter. Wood is looking for a rebound year but has his likely replacement nipping at his heels in Dustin May. Meanwhile, Baez and Treinen are bullpen pieces, which remains a volatile role in any organization is likely better going on shorter pacts anyway.

The one remaining question will be how open players are to negotiating extensions during the season. With the year already being shortened, players may not want to be distracted until after the season is completed. However, there may also be more willingness to discuss deals with the financial impact of the pandemic likely to wreak havoc on free-agent spending.

Are the Dodgers risking too much on their rotation in 2020?

It is hard to feel too badly about the Los Angeles Dodgers when it comes to starting pitchers. After all, we’re talking about a team with all-world Clayton Kershaw at the top of the rotation and a rising ace in Walker Buehler right behind him. Not too many teams can contend with that type of 1-2 punch.

The trouble the Dodgers face is that there are some serious question marks after those first two take their turns in the rotation. As currently slated, David Price, Julio Urias, and Alex Wood are expected to fill out the rest of the starting crew. The team also has Dustin May waiting in the wings to take a spot when needed, not to mention Ross Stripling as a swing-man.

For a team with World Series aspirations, they are asking a lot out of the second half of the rotation. The team lost some serious depth when Hyun-Jin Ryu left via free agency and then team traded Kenta Maeda to the Minnesota Twins, but opted to fill the holes with bounceback candidates (Price, Wood, Jimmy Nelson) and unproven younger arms (Urias, May).

Price may be slotted right where his skill set currently demands. He’s no longer an ace, but the Dodgers are also not paying him as an ace and if he gives them near the production that he gave the Red Sox over the past few seasons, he could be a serviceable, middle-of-the-rotation arm.

Wood is an intriguing option, as he was outstanding for the Dodgers over the 2017 and 2018 campaigns (combined 5.5 fWAR, 25-10 record, 3.20 ERA, 8.5 K/9). Still just 29-years-old, he’s hoping added velocity and a reworked delivery helps him to regain his status as a key arm in the Dodgers rotation.

The biggest question may be Urias. After years of starts and stops, it is hard to remember that he is still just 22-years-old. However, he’s only thrown more than 100 innings in a single season at any level (2016) and has lost time to both injuries (shoulder surgery in 2018) and suspension (domestic battery in 2019). He’s been stellar when on the mound though with a career 3.18 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and a 9.1 K/9 mark.

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The presence of May and Stripling may help to provide needed depth down the road, but there is a lot riding on the final three starters to emerge and solidify the rotation. Otherwise, the Dodgers may be shopping at the trade deadline (if there is one) for some reinforcements.