Dodgers: Four reasons Mookie Betts will re-sign with Los Angeles

As everyone wonders when baseball will return in 2020, the next big question is whether Mookie Betts will remain with the Dodgers long-term.

Two questions seem to define everything surrounding the Los Angeles Dodgers right now:

1. When will the 2020 season return?
2. Will Mookie Betts sign a long-term contract with the team?

Unfortunately, the answer to the first question also has impact on the second question. If the 2020 season is canceled, there’s a chance Mookie Betts never plays for the Dodgers, as he will be a free agent next offseason, whether he suits up this season, or not.

As the NBA has taught us, it is impossible to predict where players will ultimately sign in free agency. Remember when it was a foregone conclusion that Kevin Durant would sign with the Knicks? And then he ended up with the Nets, of all teams?!

Betts is currently in his final year of arbitration, signed to a record $27 million amount through the arbitration process for the 2020 season. Obviously, Betts risks losing a large percentage of that through a shortened schedule, which could motivate him to sign a long-term deal sooner rather than later. That said, the economics might suggest Betts would be better served to delay his decision to sign a long-term contract by agreeing to a bridge deal until 2022.

Without getting inside Mookie Betts’ head, there are several factors working in the Dodgers’ favor to lock him up to a long-term contract at the end of the season.

Let’s take a look at why Betts might make Southern California his permanent home.

1) The 2021 market has changed

With Major League Baseball on pause until at least the end of June, and fans unlikely to be able to attend games if baseball does return, 2020 league revenues will decline significantly. How that impacts free agency next offseason is yet to be determined, but there will clearly be less dollars chasing free agents.

As much as people talk about the Dodgers trading Alex Verdugo and two prospects for Mookie Betts, who might not play for the team if the 2020 season is canceled, there is another way to look at the deal.

The Red Sox upset their fanbase and pulled the trigger on trading one of the best players in baseball because they were worried they wouldn’t be able to re-sign him for an asking price that was expected to soar above $400 million. Given the current state of revenue throughout the league, it’s hard to believe Betts will fetch the same contract next winter as he would have under normal conditions.

A new economic landscape might lead Betts to agree to a more team-friendly deal with the Dodgers. It also might scare some potential suitors away who are cash-strapped due to the pandemic. Forbes recently valued the Dodgers as the second most valuable franchise in baseball. They should be well-equipped to weather the storm and remain aggressive in signing Betts long-term.

3) Who else is going to pay him?

What put the Dodgers in a unique position–as a team stacked with talent who could still go out and acquire a player like Mookie Betts in a trade–is their relative position to the luxury tax threshold.

The Red Sox were looking to avoid luxury tax payments in the future, while the Dodgers have built their roster in a way that they can afford to add an expensive outfielder without worrying about paying an extra penalty on his future salary.

The Dodgers only have an estimated $117 million on the books in luxury tax payroll for next season, according to FanGraphs. They are getting $16 million back from the Red Sox to help offset David Price‘s contract. And they have $26 million coming off the books from Justin Turner and Blake Treinen becoming free agents.

While the luxury tax threshold could change based on the economic conditions facing MLB amid the coronavirus pandemic, using face value numbers, the Dodgers have plenty of space below the $210 million threshold in 2021 to re-sign Betts to a massive contract.

Other big spenders, such as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels, are more limited in their projected luxury tax space next season. While those teams have some wiggle room, and depending on how they structure their roster, could make an offer for Betts without paying a tax penalty, it’s a limited group of teams who can make an offer to match what the Dodgers would be expected to propose.

4) What about a short-term deal?

We have discussed this option in more detail in previous posts, but with the changing economic landscape, it is possible that Mookie Betts decides to punt his decision to sign a long-term contract until 2022.

This would give time for MLB revenues to return to whatever the new normal looks like following the coronavirus pandemic. Theoretically, by the 2021 season, there could be a vaccine, or widespread testing which allows fans to return to stadiums, an important piece to the revenue pie, as ticket sales, parking, and concessions account for as much as 50 percent of MLB revenue.

If Betts takes the short-term option, the Dodgers would be in a great position to sign him for the 2022 season. This would prevent the outfielder from needing to change locations again, after making the jump to the west coast from Boston this past offseason.

If the 2020 season is ultimately canceled, a new, one-year deal would allow both the Dodgers and Betts an essential do-over on the season. Betts can prove his value playing for the league’s top team, and the Dodgers can hope the sunshine and glamor of southern California convinces him to eventually sign a long-term deal.