Dodgers: Pros and Cons of re-signing Justin Turner next offseason

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Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Justin Turner is set to become a free agent next offseason. Should the team bring him back?

Justin Turner is hoping his final game as a Los Angeles Dodgers player wasn’t in the team’s disappointing loss to the Washington Nationals in last year’s National League Division Series.

The 35-year-old infielder recently talked about the possibility of having played his final home game in Los Angeles, and said he is “sad” thinking about it. If the 2020 season is ultimately canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, based on an agreement between MLB and the Player’s Association, Turner would still record the requisite service time to become eligible for free agency next offseason.

Turner is on the final year of a four-year, $64 million contact. The deal was back-loaded, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so the charitable infielder has a chance of losing a significant amount of money ($19 million) if baseball doesn’t return this year.

Whether the upcoming season is played or not, the Dodgers will face a decision on whether they should negotiate a new contract with the third baseman who will turn 36-years-old in November. According to Turner, he has not yet discussed an extension with the Dodgers.

What are some of the considerations in deciding to bring “Red” back? Of course, it comes down to the contract terms. We recently valued a potential offer for Turner at around two-years, $40 million.

Let’s discuss the pros and cons of bring Turner back to Chavez Ravine.

Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Pro (Re-sign him!): Who would replace him?

If the Dodgers move on from Justin Turner next season, there aren’t many obvious choices to replace his production at third base.

The team could look to replace the veteran from within their farm system, perhaps giving prospect Edwin Rios a chance to shine at third. The 26-year-old played well during his call-up to the majors last season, and also had a strong showing in Oklahoma City. He can play multiple positions, similar to utility players on the roster, such as Matt Beaty, so the Dodgers could piece together a solution at third if Turner is gone. However, both Rios and Beaty are probably best served in bench roles, and would represent a downgrade for a current position of strength.

On the open market, the options are more limiting. There is Jake Lamb, who has suffered through major injuries over the past two seasons, and struggles against left-handed pitching. And there is Asdrubal Cabrera, who like Turner, is reaching an advanced point of his career. After that, the pickings are slim, unless the Dodgers looked to a player like DJ LaMahieu or Tommy La Stella to transition to the hot corner on a more full-time basis.

The best argument for bringing Turner back to the Dodgers is looking at the candidates to replace him. Unless the team could swing a trade for someone, there aren’t many attractive options on their roster or in the free agent market.

Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Con: (Let him walk!): The best days are behind him

Justin Turner’s career took off when he joined the Dodgers in 2014. A utility player for the Mets who didn’t show many signs of becoming an everyday player, let alone a middle-of-the-lineup hitter, quickly became a star when he arrived in Los Angeles. He has been one of the most consistent hitters in the Dodgers lineup over the past decade.

But the 35-year-old third baseman probably best days are probably behind him. Over the past three seasons, he has seen his batting average drop from .322 to .312 to .290 last season. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage have followed similar patterns of decline. While he still is a very good hitter, slashing .290/.372/.509 in 2019, along with 27 home runs, which tied a career-high, it’s wishful thinking to believe he can keep that production up for several more seasons into his late thirties.

According to ZiPS, which provides three-year projections on FanGraphs, Turner is expected to see his batting average hover around .275 with 12-15 home runs over the two seasons following his Age-35 campaign. Not terrible, but not the type of production Dodgers fans are used to seeing from Red.

Most concerning is his defense. Using advanced statistics, his ultimate zone rating (UZR) has gone from a positive value in 2016 to a largely negative one last season. While Statcast shows improvement in his fielding last season, his lateral quickness toward third base remains a weakness. As Turner ages, and without a DH position in the National League to hide him, his defense could become a liability at the hot corner.

Pro: (Re-sign him!): Dodgers in a win-now mode

It’s difficult to weigh the pros and cons of re-signing Justin Turner without setting the parameters of a potential deal. The Los Angeles Dodgers are built to win now, despite having a roster stocked with up-and-coming talent, along with veteran leaders. On the short term, it certainly makes sense to keep Turner in their clubhouse.

If the 2020 season is canceled, or the Dodgers fall short of their ultimate goal again, it might prove necessary to re-sign Turner to one more contract. Even if the back-end of the deal proves expensive, that might be the cost of business if the team wants to avoid creating a hole in their lineup in the near term.

The projection systems still view Turner as an above average hitter in 2021 and 2022, so perhaps the Dodgers could squeeze the final life from the third baseman’s career as they continue to seek an elusive modern day championship.

As detailed on an earlier slide, the options to replace Turner’s production are scare, and it could end up costing the team more in free agent dollars or trade-able assets to make up for his loss than it would to re-sign him to a new contract.

Con: (Let him walk!): Turner might prove too expensive

While the Dodgers are well-positioned against the luxury tax threshold in 2021, with close to $100 million in projected wiggle room, the price to re-sign Justin Turner could prove too expensive over the long-run to justify.

Obviously, economic conditions will dictate how the 2021 market looks due to the fallout of the novel coronavirus, so luxury tax figures could change, and players, like Turner, could be had at a discount; but re-signing Turner to a long-term deal could impact the Dodgers’ financial flexibility down the road when players like Clayton Kershaw and Corey Seager are seeking new deals, and arbitration-eligible stars like Cody Bellinger become more expensive.

If the Dodgers find a way to re-sign Mookie Betts to a long-term deal, that obviously won’t be a cheap contract. A big part of the team’s success under president Andrew Friedman has been building a competitive roster without overloading the payroll with oversized contracts.

If Turner is seeking a four, or five-year deal to take him into his forties, that could be too long of a window for the team to tie up their payroll funds.

Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images) /

Pro: (Re-Sign him!): Leadership in the clubhouse

Who is better than Justin Turner? You can’t make roster decisions entirely on personality, but the role Turner plays as a veteran voice in the clubhouse shouldn’t be discounted.

The Dodgers are clearly a “win-now” team, but they also have a roster full of young players who are learning how to navigate the major leagues while playing at a high level. Cody Bellinger might have won the 2019 National League MVP award, but he is still only 24-years-old. Gavin Lux is even younger, as he looks to transition from top prospect to everyday second baseman. These young players can learn from the example Turner sets on-and-off the field.

Turner has become a rock in the local community, starting the Justin Turner Foundation with his wife, Kourtney, in 2016. He proves everyday how a professional ballplayer can make a difference through their actions outside of the game of baseball.

Next. 4 reasons why Betts will re-sign with Dodgers. dark

The Dodgers organization is well-represented by Turner in every capacity. Sometimes it is important to keep players like that tied to your organization in creating a positive culture around the team.

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