Dodgers: How much better was Clayton Kershaw than the rest of his draft class?

Clayton Kershaw and the 2006 Dodgers Draft Class

While Clayton Kershaw was a success story for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the rest of the 2006 draft was, for lack of a better description, an utter disappointment.

The Dodgers made a total of 50 selections in the 2006 draft, including two other picks on the first round. Of those 50 picks, only 21 signed on the dotted line with Los Angeles. of those 21 that signed, only one other player made the major leagues.

The second selection made by the team was used on Bryan Morris, a right-hander out of Motlow State Community College. Morris spent three seasons in the Dodgers system from 2006 to 2008 but missed all of the 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery. He returned to go 2-4 with a 3.20 ERA at Great Lakes in 2008 but was included in the three-team trade with the Red Sox and Pirates that brought Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles.

After converting to a reliever, Morris would make his MLB debut with the Pirates in 2012. He would ultimately spend six seasons in the big leagues, also appearing for the Marlins and Giants. Overall he compiled a bWAR of 2.7 with a career record of 20-12 with a 3.13 ERA and a 6.4 K/9. He’s now a pitching coach at his old high school.

The Dodgers’ third pick in the first round was another compensation for losing Jeff Weaver to the Angels. This pick was used on prep shortstop Preston Mattingly, the son of future Dodgers’ manager Don Mattingly. Sadly, he never approached the level of his father with the bat, hitting a meager .232/.276/.335 with 25 home runs and 165 RBI over 1846 minor league plate appearances. He never made it past high-A Ranco Cucamonga. However, he’s made a decent name for himself in the game as the Padres Manager of Pro Scouting.

Outside of Kershaw, this draft will also be known for who the Dodgers were unable to sign. In the 29th round, Los Angeles selected catcher Roberto Perez, who has been worth 7.4 bWAR after waiting two seasons and landing with the Cleveland Indians in the 33rd round. Of course, the team also used their second to the last pick of the draft on a first baseman named Paul Goldschmidt, who went on to have a pretty solid career when the Diamondbacks selected him in the 8th round three years later.

Clayton Kershaw and the 2006 MLB Draft – First Round

As previously mentioned, the 2006 MLB Draft was extremely top-heavy, as most drafts should be. Of the 44 first-round selections (including supplemental picks), 22 appeared at the big league level and contributed positive wins above replacement grades. Of those 22, seven of them have been worth 10 or more wins over their careers to date. Two of those have been worth 50-plus wins thus far.

Perhaps the biggest name amongst the 2006 first-round picks (outside of Kershaw of course) is Max Scherzer. Selected by the Arizona Diamondbacks with the 11th overall pick, Scherzer has evolved into one of, if no the top right-hander in the game today. Since making his debut in 2008, he’s gone 170-89 with a 3.20 ERA, a 3.13 FIP, and a 10.6 K/9 mark. Scherzer has finished in the top-5 of the Cy Young race each of the last seven seasons, including winning it three times (2013, 16, 17). He’s been worth 60.1 bWAR for his career.

Evan Longoria was the third overall pick of the 2006 draft, going behind Hochevar and Reynolds to the Tampa Bay Rays. He quickly became the face of the franchise, accruing 51.8 bWAR in a Rays uniform while hitting .270/.341/.483 with 261 home runs and 892 RBI. Tampa would trade him to the Giants in December 2017, and he would add another 4.2 bWAR during his first two seasons in San Francisco.

Speaking of the hated Giants, this draft is also famous for Tim Lincecum. Although the right-hander, that was known as “The Freak”, fell on hard times and is no longer in the game, he was worth 19.2 bWAR over his 10-year career. He owns a lifetime record of 110-89, a 3.74 ERA, a 3.45 FIP, and a 9.3 K/9. He also won back-to-back Cy Young awards in 2008 and 2009 and was a member of three World Series winners.

The 2006 draft will also be remembered for the stumbles. The Royals would love to have a first pick do-over after Luke Hochevar struggled with injuries and never realized his potential, eventually being worth 3.7 bWAR over his career. The same could be said for the Rockies and Greg Reynolds (2nd overall, -1.5 bWAR), the Pirates and Brad Lincoln (4th overall, 0.4 bWAR), and the Mariners and Brandon Morrow (5th overall, 11.2 bWAR), all selected before Kershaw.

Clayton Kershaw and the 2006 MLB Draft – Later Rounds

While the 2006 MLB Draft proved to have some exceptional talent in the first round, that isn’t to say that the rest of the draft had a lack of quality. While the rest of the draft doesn’t feature a superstar the quality of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, or Evan Longoria, there are plenty of quality major leaguers that came from this draft.

Over the final 49 rounds of this draft, 22 players have accrued a bWAR of 10 or greater. Of those 22, three have graded out as 20-plus wins above replacement.

Dodgers fans will be familiar with the player that has the most wins outside of the first round. Justin Turner was a 7th round selection of the Cincinnati Reds in 2006. Two years after being drafted, and before he ever appeared in a game for Cincy, the Reds shipped Turner to the Baltimore Orioles. Turner would appear in just 17 games for the Orioles before he was placed on waivers and claimed by the New York Mets. After failing to make much noise over four seasons what the Mets, Turner found himself a free agent and eventually a member of the Dodgers. The rest they say is history, with Big Red being worth 27.4 of the 28.0 bWAR he’s accrued as a member of the LA good guys. Overall, he owns a lifetime batting line of .292/.367/.470 with 120 home runs and 472 RBI.

Also appearing in the 20-plus bWAR club is Daniel Murphy. Murphy has earned 20.8 bWAR over 11 seasons split between the Mets, Nationals, Cubs, and Rockies. He’s perhaps most famous for his 2015 NLCS performance, hitting .529/.556/1.294 with four home runs and six RBI against the Cubs in an MVP performance.

Murphy is also not the only Dodger enemy on this list. The Red Sox selected outfielder Josh Reddick in the 17th round of the 2006 draft and he’s had a hot and cold career since. Between the Red Sox, Athletics, Dodgers, and Astros, Reddick has been worth 25.4 bWAR with a batting line of .275/.319/.409, 140 home runs, and 531 RBI. Dodgers fans love him for his contributions to the team in 2016 (.258/.307/.335 in 47 games) and his outspoken support of the Astros championship* in 2017.

Other notables from the 2006 draft include former Dodger David Freese (18.4 bWAR), Doug Fister (19.5 bWAR), Ian Kennedy (17.6 bWAR), Tommy Pham (14.7 bWAR), David Robertson (15.8 bWAR), Jeff Samardzija (15.2 bWAR), and Zach Britton (14.0 bWAR).

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Needless to say, the Dodgers were the clear winners of this draft. Between Clayton Kershaw and Justin Turner (even if they didn’t pick him), they’ve made out like bandits and have two big pieces of their current core.