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Dodgers: Why Mookie Betts is more valuable over a shortened season
The Los Angeles Dodgers need Mookie Betts more now than ever.
When the Los Angeles Dodgers swung a trade for superstar Mookie Betts in the offseason, unless you were an epidemiologist tracking the novel coronavirus in the Far East, there was no way of knowing a pandemic would put the 2020 season in peril.
Dodgers president Andrew Friedman forfeited a young outfielder in Alex Verdugo, along with two prospects (Jeter Downs and Connor Wong) to secure Betts’ services for the season leading up to his free agency campaign.
With MLB owners and players wrangling over a financial structure, let alone important health protocols, in order to start the 2020 season, many have suggested the Dodgers fell into bad luck in dealing for Betts before the current situation.
Starter David Price, who was acquired alongside Betts, believes Los Angeles wouldn’t have completed the deal had they known what was coming.
“Yeah, that sucks,” Price recently told The Athletic. “Seeing into the future and knowing coronavirus was right around the corner, they wouldn’t have done that. I’m sure a lot of people made big changes in their lives, and it’s put a wrinkle in a lot of people’s plans. That’s part of it, and it stinks.”
But if a shortened season is ultimately played is the addition of Mookie Betts really a waste?
In fact, if Friedman was given the same opportunity to pull the trigger on a deal today, given the current risk profile for the season, would it be wise for him to do it again?
I think so. Let me explain why.
1) Dodgers need Mookie Betts in regular season more than ever
After winning 106 games last season, and their seventh consecutive title, the last team in the National League West that needed to make a major improvement over the offseason was the Los Angeles Dodgers.
However, the rich got richer by adding a former American League MVP to a lineup that already includes the reigning National League MVP in Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers have an embarrassment of riches entering the 2020 season. In fact, FanGraphs projected they would win the NL West by 14 games over the Padres.
But a shortened season changes everything. While the Dodgers might be the clear front-runners to win the division over a 162-game marathon, the odds fall in the underdogs favor as more games are knocked off the schedule, and the season turns into a sprint.
FanGraphs ran their season projections over an 81-game schedule – the current length being proposed by Major League Baseball to the players – and the Dodgers odds of winning the West shrink considerably. Once a 91% lock, they would suddenly find themselves with only 56% odds to win the division. The projected standings put the Padres within six games.
What does this all mean? It means the addition of Mookie Betts suddenly carries added value over a shortened season. Playing 162 games, the Dodgers don’t need Betts in their lineup to win the West. By cutting the season in half, the added value of Betts could be the difference maker in winning the division, or not.
2) Dodgers acquired Mookie Betts to win a championship
Whether the 2020 season was played over 162 games, or now, over 110, or 81, the goal for the Dodgers remains the same: win a World Series championship.
Andrew Friedman didn’t acquire Mookie Betts to sell tickets or jerseys in the team store. He added one of the best players in the game to help put the Dodgers over the top in their quest for their first world championship since 1988.
The starting point and path to reach the World Series might have changed, but the end destination remains the same.
If Friedman was willing to trade a group of young assets to perfect his roster for a short-term goal over the winter, why would that change now?
Mookie Betts could still prove to be the difference maker in bringing a parade to downtown Los Angeles.
And if the dream comes to pass, we won’t look back at the 2020 season as a shortened-season, we will remember the moments leading up to the championship. All it takes is one big playoff performance that helps lead the Dodgers to the Promised Land, and the cost to acquire Betts becomes well worth it.
3) Dodgers still gain inside track at re-signing Mookie Betts
This is the most difficult factor to evaluate from afar, but an important one to consider in weighing whether it was worthwhile for the Dodgers to acquire Mookie Betts one season before he hits free agency.
Do the Dodgers gain an inside track at re-signing Mookie Betts long-term by having him part of their organization in the months leading up to the offseason?
I think they do.
Betts gets to learn how the franchise operates, from top to bottom. The Dodgers are considered “the model” in player development. They have a team stacked with talent to compete in the near-term, on top of a farm system that should keep them competitive for years to come.
If Betts wants to remain on a competitive team, surely his short time with the Dodgers will highlight how the organization positions itself as an elite club in the major leagues.
The Nashville native also gains an opportunity to learn about the local community, albeit in a more limited fashion due to the coronavirus pandemic. Most players, across all sports, find it difficult to leave the sunshine of Los Angeles, once they arrive. That’s why many professional athletes make Southern California their offseason home.
Next. 4 relievers who could improve 2020 roster. dark
The pandemic has changed the economic landscape across the globe, and Major League Baseball is not an exception to that. Some believe Betts could have lost over $150 million on a long-term contract because of impacted revenues.
It’s possible the superstar outfielder decides to sign a short-term deal to bridge his time to when the market recovers. It would make the most sense for him to do that with his host team, rather than signing with a new club where he would need to adjust to everything that comes with moving again.