Dodgers: Why Mookie Betts, others have incentive to skip 50 game season

Dodgers with incentive to skip 2020 season: 1) Mookie Betts

Perhaps nobody has more to lose, financially, from the fallout of the pandemic than Mookie Betts. The superstar outfielder, who was traded in the offseason by the Boston Red Sox when it was believed he would fetch as much as $400 million in the open market next winter, could see his contract value depreciate by as much as $150 million due to depressed revenues.

Betts was awarded a record-breaking $27 million in arbitration for the 2020 season, his last before becoming a free agent. Using a pro-rated salary for a 50-game schedule, the former American League MVP would see his current season pay drop to $8.3 million.

In a recent interview with 105.4 KNBR in San Francisco, ESPN MLB insider Buster Olney said there’s an “excellent chance” players are going to choose not to participate if presented with a significantly shortened season, bringing up Mookie Betts name as an example:

“If I were sitting in Mookie Betts’ shoes or George Springer’s shoes, the two biggest free agents in the fall, you’re going to have a 50-game season or a 45-game season, do you want to risk your free agency? And you’ve already taken a big financial hit anyway. Do you want to risk that to play?”

While Dodger fans would hope his competitive fire and commitment to the game would urge Betts to play, Olney raises a good point. After already seeing his free agent value potentially depreciate due to the pandemic, would Betts want to put himself at even more risk by returning to play for only 50 games?

Would he be better to sit out the season, remain healthy, and hope he can cash in on the open market? I hope not. But we will see.

Dodgers with incentive to skip 2020 season: 2) A.J. Pollock

There is one player on the Dodgers roster who has benefited from the extra time away from the game, and that is A.J. Pollock.

The Dodgers outfielder has used the break to spend time with his family after his wife gave birth to a baby girl at only 24 weeks. Luckily, it appears the newborn is doing well and healthy, but it has been an extremely stressful time, as Pollock has explained in recent interviews.

While Pollock will confer with doctors over the risks associated with returning to play, and he has indicated it appears he will be able to participate in the 2020 season, if MLB owners refuse to budge on player salary demands, and the season is shortened to only 50 games as a result, could Pollock decide, at that point, it makes more sense to stay home with his newborn baby?

In 2019, Pollock signed a four-year, $55 million contract to play in Los Angeles, which includes an opt-out after the 2021 season if the right-handed hitter accumulates 1,000 plate appearances in 2020-21. Obviously, that qualifier would need to be adjusted over a shortened season, or else there is no chance of Pollock reaching it with a 50-game season in 2020.

Either way, it seems unlikely he would be worried about that contract clause as he is expected to play a platoon role with Joc Pederson, and the remaining value of his contract beyond 2021 is likely going to be larger than what he could receive again in the open market.

Pollock is an example of a player who has legitimate family concerns, as he tries to keep a prematurely born baby healthy, in deciding whether to play a shortened season.

Dodgers with incentive to skip 2020 season: 3) Kenley Jansen

While there is no indication Kenley Jansen has concern with playing the 2020 season, he might represent the team’s biggest health risk, perhaps other than pitcher Scott Alexander, who has Type 1 diabetes.

Jansen has a history of heart problems, which is one of the preconditions listed on the CDC website as putting people at higher risk of severe illness from the novel coronavirus.

In a recent Los Angeles Times article, both Jansen’s agent and manager Dave Roberts indicated they are not concerned with Jansen being at greater risk.

“From everything I’ve heard, Kenley is not at any higher risk than anyone else,” Roberts said. “He’s a caged lion right now. He can’t get going soon enough.”

However, as we learn new things about Covid-19, the disease resulting from the novel coronavirus, it’s impossible to know for sure who is completely safe and who is potentially at higher risk.

Jansen is near the end of a five-year, $80 million contract. He is still signed through 2021. While he completed a heart procedure in 2018 that was supposed to fix his heart issues, it’s possible he decides it’s not worth putting himself at danger again by returning to play over a shortened season. He will definitely need to listen closely to his doctors given his pre-existing condition.

Dodgers with incentive to skip 2020 season: Players set to become free agents in 2021

While I think Mookie Betts, A.J. Pollock, and Kenley Jansen have the most pressing reasons to potentially skip a 50-game season, pretty much any player who is set to enter free agency in 2021 faces risk in returning to play, as Buster Olney noted to KNBR in San Francisco.

The question is whether Major League Baseball will allow players to opt out of the 2020 season while still accumulating service time. Based on a previous agreement, if the 2020 season was canceled, players would still receive their requisite service time to allow pending free agents to maintain their eligibility even without playing any games. If the season is played, and certain players opt-out, it remains to be negotiated how that would impact service time.

But assuming players who opt-out due to health concerns are still eligible to become free agents next offseason, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, and Pedro Baez are all players who would be putting their health at risk just before they are hoping to get paid on the open market.

There are a few veteran players set to hit free agency in 2021, such as Justin Turner, and one-year signings Blake Treinen and Alex Wood. But all three have incentive to play. You can’t imagine Turner not showing up. And both Treinen and Wood are looking to prove they are worthy of another contract by their performance on the field this season.

Dodgers: Why Mookie Betts is more valuable over a shortened season

The Los Angeles Dodgers need Mookie Betts more now than ever.

In the end, I don’t expect to see many players on the Dodgers active roster who decide not to play in 2020, even if the season is truncated to only 50 games. But there are legitimate reasons why several players could consider just staying home.