Dodgers: Why Mookie Betts, others have incentive to skip 50 game season

If Major League Baseball returns for only a 50-game season, several Los Angeles Dodgers players have incentive to skip the season.

As the NBA and NHL continue to finalize their plans for resuming their seasons in the dark shadow of the coronavirus pandemic, Major League Baseball remains stuck in neutral. It seems possible, at best, MLB plays a shortened, 50-game schedule, which could give incentive for several players on the Los Angeles Dodgers to skip the season.

Skip the season? Would players really do that?

Well, we know that the player’s union made a recent proposal to MLB that included a 114-game schedule with the option for players to opt-out of the season due to health concerns.

Blake Snell, now somewhat infamously, made his thoughts known about potentially playing amid the pandemic without receiving proper pay. Clayton Kershaw didn’t agree with the harshness of Snell’s comments, but also has concerns with certain return-to-play proposals.

Essentially, players might not be willing to put their health at risk to return to the diamond if the owners are going to dramatically cut their salaries to the point it almost doesn’t make sense for them to play.

MLB insider Buster Olney thinks many players will decide not to participate in a shortened season.

“I think there’s an excellent chance that you’re going to have a lot of players who are going to choose not to participate,” Olney said during an interview with 105.4 KNBR in San Francisco on Thursday (h/t 247 Sports). “Either because of legitimate health concerns, maybe family underlying health issues, people they don’t want to expose to coronavirus. But you also might have some guys who are eligible for free agency in the fall who, like college football players don’t play in bowl games, might say, ‘Not worth it.’

There are a variety of factors for players to consider in deciding whether it is worthwhile to play if the worst case scenario of a 50-game season is their only option. Each player must make a personal choice, based on income, health, and family factors, while considering their commitment to the team and their fans.

Let’s review which players on the Dodgers roster would have incentive to skip a 50-game season.

Dodgers with incentive to skip 2020 season: 1) Mookie Betts

Perhaps nobody has more to lose, financially, from the fallout of the pandemic than Mookie Betts. The superstar outfielder, who was traded in the offseason by the Boston Red Sox when it was believed he would fetch as much as $400 million in the open market next winter, could see his contract value depreciate by as much as $150 million due to depressed revenues.

Betts was awarded a record-breaking $27 million in arbitration for the 2020 season, his last before becoming a free agent. Using a pro-rated salary for a 50-game schedule, the former American League MVP would see his current season pay drop to $8.3 million.

In a recent interview with 105.4 KNBR in San Francisco, ESPN MLB insider Buster Olney said there’s an “excellent chance” players are going to choose not to participate if presented with a significantly shortened season, bringing up Mookie Betts name as an example:

“If I were sitting in Mookie Betts’ shoes or George Springer’s shoes, the two biggest free agents in the fall, you’re going to have a 50-game season or a 45-game season, do you want to risk your free agency? And you’ve already taken a big financial hit anyway. Do you want to risk that to play?”

While Dodger fans would hope his competitive fire and commitment to the game would urge Betts to play, Olney raises a good point. After already seeing his free agent value potentially depreciate due to the pandemic, would Betts want to put himself at even more risk by returning to play for only 50 games?

Would he be better to sit out the season, remain healthy, and hope he can cash in on the open market? I hope not. But we will see.

Dodgers with incentive to skip 2020 season: 2) A.J. Pollock

There is one player on the Dodgers roster who has benefited from the extra time away from the game, and that is A.J. Pollock.

The Dodgers outfielder has used the break to spend time with his family after his wife gave birth to a baby girl at only 24 weeks. Luckily, it appears the newborn is doing well and healthy, but it has been an extremely stressful time, as Pollock has explained in recent interviews.

While Pollock will confer with doctors over the risks associated with returning to play, and he has indicated it appears he will be able to participate in the 2020 season, if MLB owners refuse to budge on player salary demands, and the season is shortened to only 50 games as a result, could Pollock decide, at that point, it makes more sense to stay home with his newborn baby?

In 2019, Pollock signed a four-year, $55 million contract to play in Los Angeles, which includes an opt-out after the 2021 season if the right-handed hitter accumulates 1,000 plate appearances in 2020-21. Obviously, that qualifier would need to be adjusted over a shortened season, or else there is no chance of Pollock reaching it with a 50-game season in 2020.

Either way, it seems unlikely he would be worried about that contract clause as he is expected to play a platoon role with Joc Pederson, and the remaining value of his contract beyond 2021 is likely going to be larger than what he could receive again in the open market.

Pollock is an example of a player who has legitimate family concerns, as he tries to keep a prematurely born baby healthy, in deciding whether to play a shortened season.

Dodgers with incentive to skip 2020 season: Players set to become free agents in 2021

While I think Mookie Betts, A.J. Pollock, and Kenley Jansen have the most pressing reasons to potentially skip a 50-game season, pretty much any player who is set to enter free agency in 2021 faces risk in returning to play, as Buster Olney noted to KNBR in San Francisco.

The question is whether Major League Baseball will allow players to opt out of the 2020 season while still accumulating service time. Based on a previous agreement, if the 2020 season was canceled, players would still receive their requisite service time to allow pending free agents to maintain their eligibility even without playing any games. If the season is played, and certain players opt-out, it remains to be negotiated how that would impact service time.

But assuming players who opt-out due to health concerns are still eligible to become free agents next offseason, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, and Pedro Baez are all players who would be putting their health at risk just before they are hoping to get paid on the open market.

There are a few veteran players set to hit free agency in 2021, such as Justin Turner, and one-year signings Blake Treinen and Alex Wood. But all three have incentive to play. You can’t imagine Turner not showing up. And both Treinen and Wood are looking to prove they are worthy of another contract by their performance on the field this season.

Dodgers: Why Mookie Betts is more valuable over a shortened season

The Los Angeles Dodgers need Mookie Betts more now than ever.

In the end, I don’t expect to see many players on the Dodgers active roster who decide not to play in 2020, even if the season is truncated to only 50 games. But there are legitimate reasons why several players could consider just staying home.