Dodgers: What will the rotation look like in three years?

Predicting the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation for the 2023 season.

The time following the MLB Draft always represents a period to think ahead. What will the Los Angeles Dodgers roster look like in three years? What will the roster look like in five years?

Hopefully, for the scouting department, some of the names we saw called on draft night are key pieces in the lineup down the road. With the Dodgers prioritizing college-age pitching, “down the road” might be just around the corner.

As we wait for the 2020 season to begin, I thought it would be fun to project what the Dodgers rotation will look like in 2023.

It’s not easy to predict three years into the future; obviously, players come and go, free agent signings are made, trades are orchestrated. As an example, look at the Dodgers rotation from three years back (based on number of starts):

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Alex Wood
3. Rich Hill
4. Kenta Maeda
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Only Alex Wood and Clayton Kershaw remain. Both Kenta Maeda and Hyun-Jin Ryu left Los Angeles this past offseason. The best pitching prospect in the Dodgers system in 2017 was Jose De Leon, with Walker Buehler and Jordan Sheffield the next pitchers appearing on the list. Only Buehler is a fixture in the rotation today.

So while it’s difficult to predict the future, for the fun of it, let’s try to come up with a rotation for the 2023 season with optimistic projections for the current group of young arms in the Dodgers system.

Projecting the 2023 Dodgers Rotation: Walker Buehler

To show you the cost-control the Dodgers have on Walker Buehler, by the beginning of the 2023 season, he will still be two years away from free agency eligibility. He will be 28-years-old by then, and if he follows his current trajectory, he will surely be the bona-fide number one starter in the Dodgers rotation.

If there is one name you can write in pen for being a part of the rotation in 2023, it is Buehler’s. The right-hander is on the cusp of taking the reins from Clayton Kershaw as the team’s Ace pitcher. He has already developed into manager Dave Roberts‘ best big-game starter.

Last season, Buehler went 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, on top of impressive 10.6 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 rates. FanGraphs’ projection system, ZiPS, sees him being a 4+ fWAR pitcher in each of the next three seasons.

Having started only 30 games once in his young career, three years from now, Buehler should be a stud in the rotation, leading the team every fifth day. And if he pitches like he did in the 2019 National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals, he could be the starter who helps the Dodgers clinch their first championship since 1988.

Projecting the 2023 Dodgers Rotation: Dustin May

Dustin May broke into the major leagues during the 2019 season, appearing in 14 games while making four starts from the mound. It’s only a matter of time before this top prospect is a regular in the Dodgers rotation. If it doesn’t happen by the end of the 2020 season, it will surely take place by 2021.

If all goes right, the young right-hander will be a fixture in the rotation by 2023. He is considered the second best prospect in Andrew Friedman’s system, behind second baseman Gavin Lux.

The 6-foot-6 flamethrower has a fastball that peaks close to 100 MPH. FanGraphs grades the pitch at 65 on a 20-80 grading scale, with his slider and cutter trending to become plus pitches. And that doesn’t even mention his curveball which ranked in the 98th percentile for spin rate last season, according to Baseball Savant.

The only thing holding back May, 22, from being a long-term starter in the rotation is health. But if he stays away from the injured list, he will be starting for the Dodgers every fifth day for years to come.

Projecting the 2023 Dodgers Rotation: Tony Gonsolin

The Dodgers are so rich in top-level prospects, Tony Gonsolin‘s name is often forgotten when talking about the future of the team. The 26-year-old right-hander made his major league debut last season, looking impressive in 11 appearances mixed between the bullpen and starting rotation.

Gonsolin was 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA for manager Dave Roberts in 2019. While he’s got a pretty good fastball on its own right, his ability to mix in breaking stuff makes him an effective starter. FanGraphs grades his split-finger as a 70 on a 20-80 scale. Last season, MLB hitters batted an anemic .182 against his split.

The right-hander, who is perhaps best known for his facial hair, could end up in the bullpen, but in three years, don’t be surprised if he is a fixture in the Dodgers rotation as a swingman similar to the role we might see Ross Stripling take this season in a possible 6-man rotation.

Gonsolin looked incredibly sharp this past spring before everything was shutdown. He didn’t allow a run over 5.2 innings of work, striking out six and walking only one. He is ready to take the next step on the path to becoming a full-time starter.

Projecting the 2023 Dodgers Rotation: Bobby Miller

Selected in the first round of the 2020 MLB Draft with the 29th overall pick, the Dodgers continued an organizational trend of favoring college arms early in the draft. The University of Louisville hurler, Bobby Miller, had an impressive spring before the season was cut short due to the novel coronavirus.

The 21-year-old already carries an imposing presence with his 6-foot-5, 220 pound frame. But he will need to spend time in the minor leagues developing a wider mix of pitches before making the transition to the majors. Three years represents a realistic timeframe for when he could be ready to join the Dodgers rotation as a full-time starter.

Miller went 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA while whiffing 34 batters in just 23.1 innings this spring. He held opponents to a .181 opponent batting average. There is no doubt that he has the stuff to compete at a high level.

The challenge for Miller is learning how to mix up his pitches and develop secondary and tertiary options when he can’t just rely on his fastball to get hitters out.