Los Angeles Dodgers: Can Mookie Betts be the greatest Dodger ever?

Mookie Betts is going to be a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers for a long, long time.

It was announced on Wednesday that Mookie Betts signed on the dotted line to be a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers for life. Just five months after being traded to LA without ever playing a game for the Dodgers, Betts agreed to a 12-year, $365 million extension with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers did a great job of working out a long-term extension that not only keeps Betts in town but keeps his contract from restricting the team over the long-term. $115 million of the $365 million is deferred money, which means the Dodgers will be paying Betts until the year 2044.

Betts will be 52 years old the last time he gets a check from the Los Angeles Dodgers. You can view the entire breakdown of his contract here.

By that time, Betts will probably be a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame while donning a Dodger hat on his bronze plaque.Even with great days in Boston, Mookie will go down as a Dodger (barring a trade, of course).

With Mookie being the sensational talent that he is there was one question that instantly came to mind: can he be the greatest player in Los Angeles Dodgers history?

We crunched some numbers with some fair estimations on Betts’ Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement for the next 13 years and pitted him up against the top-five players in Los Angeles Dodgers history. Is he the best ever? Let’s dive into the top-five.

*Note: Cody Bellinger is not included on this list, as his long-term future with the team is not a guarantee.

Greatest players in Los Angeles Dodgers history: 5. Dazzy Vance, 61.9 WAR

It should be noted that WAR for pitchers and position players are calculated differently but we decided to just group the pitchers with the position players to create this top five.

Dazzy Vance was the first dominant arm in Dodgers’ history and is a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame. He pitched for Brooklyn from 1922 to 1935 and was not only a great arm for the Dodgers, but was one of the best pitchers in the league.

Vance is a one-time MVP, leading the league in strikeouts seven times and ERA three times. He finished his Dodger career with a 3.17 ERA and 1,918 strikeouts.

The most incredible thing about Vance is that his career started as a very old age. If he would have started his pro baseball career earlier then maybe we would have the Dazzy Vance Award instead of the Cy Young Award.

Vance had 33 innings pitched before he became a Dodger at the ripe age of 31 (which is how old Clayton Kershaw is). Vance could have had a 25-year career and would have been a more well-known name if he was.

Vance comes in fifth on this list and is ahead of some very notable pitchers in Dodger history. The next three pitchers on the WAR leaderboard are Don Drysdale, Sandy Koufax and Don Sutton.

Greatest players in Los Angeles Dodgers history: 3. Pee Wee Reese, 68.2 WAR

Pee Wee Reese is another Brooklyn Dodgers legend that played for the team during the 1940s and 50s and was a big component of the Dodgers winning their first-ever World Series in 1955.

Reese made his MLB debut with the Dodgers in 1940 and spent his entire career donning the Dodger blue. He played all the way until 1958, which was the first season that the Dodgers played in Los Angeles, taking three years off for military service time during World War II.

Reese was a 10-time all-star and led the league in runs, stolen bases and walks all once in his career. He was never the best player in the MLB, but he consistently received MVP votes, finishing in the top 10 eight times.

Reese is the Dodgers’ all-time leader in runs scored, is second in hits and is one of just three players in franchise history with over 2,000 hits.

Reese is a Hall of Famer, and spoiler alert, he is the Dodgers’ current all-time leader in WAR. That means that the next two players on this list are projected to pass Reese in career WAR with the Dodgers.

Greatest players in Los Angeles Dodgers history: 2. Clayton Kershaw, 69.8 WAR (projected)

If we were going off of current WAR then Clayton Kershaw would have slotted in as the fourth-greatest player in Dodger history. However, with two more years under contract (including 2020), Kershaw is most likely going to finish his career with the Dodgers as the all-time leader in WAR.

Kershaw is currently at 65.3 career WAR with the Dodgers, meaning he just needs 2.9 WAR to surpass Reese. As long as Kershaw does not have any long-term injuries he will pass Reese, even with the shortened season in 2020.

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To calculate how much Kershaw would be worth the next two seasons, we took his last two WAR totals in 2018 and 2019 and averaged them out to him having 10 starts in 2020 (something that should still happen with his Opening Day scratch).

This would result in a 1.2 WAR for Kershaw in 2020 and if he keeps the same trend, a 3.3 WAR in 2021. At that point, he will be right under 70 career WAR at 69.8.

If he stays in LA past his current contract then he will continue to add to his legacy and will probably do enough to keep the projected number one from actually becoming number one. However, we did this projection under the impression that Kershaw’s current contract will take him to the end of his Dodgers career.

Greatest players in Los Angeles Dodgers history: 1. Mookie Betts, 71.1 WAR (projected)

This is not really a surprise at this point as we already said that number one is a projected total and Betts has not appeared on this list so far. And while there is a long way to go until Betts calls it a career, if he plays out his entire contract in LA, with our reasonable projections, then he will go down as the greatest Dodger of all-time.

That is, unless Kershaw spends another 2+ seasons in LA, which would likely be enough to take him over the projected 71.1 WAR for Betts in LA.

To do this projection we took Mookie’s average WAR from the last five seasons (not counting his 52-game rookie season). The average was 7.9 WAR per season. We adjusted that to a 60-game season at the same pace, which would account for 2.9 WAR.

We then assumed that Betts will continue this level of play for another three seasons. That means from 2021 to 2023 he will accumulate 23.7 WAR. That is being favorable, as well, as Betts could easily get better or have a longer “peak” prime. He turns 31 after the 2023 season.

We then assumed that over the following five seasons he would be worth about 80% of what he has been thus far in his career. Still an all-star and maybe even still in his prime. Again, these are reasonable projections. Those five seasons would be worth 31.6 WAR.

Then, we assumed he would be worth half of what he is now in the last four years of his deal, accounting for 15.8 WAR. Put it all together and we have 71.1 career WAR.

If we do assume Bellinger is a lifetime Dodger and is worth the same WAR during his prime as Betts (he had a 9.1 WAR last season) then he will finish with a 102.7 WAR.

But again, that is assuming that he continues at a 7.9 WAR pace through his age 31 season (another seven seasons) and then has the same kind of drop off as Betts. This year will be telling if he can continue an MVP-level of play of if 2019 was an anomaly.

Of course, he would have to stay healthy, but that is why these projections are overly reasonable. Regardless, Mookie Betts could wind up being the best player in Los Angeles Dodgers history.