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Dodgers: 3 potential free agency mistakes LAD must avoid

By Adam Weinrib |
PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 04: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds in action during game two of a doubleheader against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on September 4, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 04: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds in action during game two of a doubleheader against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on September 4, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
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The Los Angeles Dodgers will be operating on a semi-budget in 2020-21 free agency, and they can’t afford to make these financial mistakes.

Theoretically, the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to have a little money to spend in free agency this year — and might be using a good chunk of it to retain one of their own in Justin Turner.

But it’s fair for Dodgers fans to be hesitant about doling out too much money to any one party this winter before the team’s most important needs are taken care of. After all, Andrew Friedman has already hinted that the team’s top free agents might want to seek employment elsewhere, and has Corey Seager to take care of prior to next offseason.

Well, either Seager or, say, Francisco Lindor. Either way.

With less capital to work with this offseason but a still-aggressive mentality in the wake of finally capturing that elusive World Series ring, the Dodgers are going to be the National League favorite no matter what they do or do not do this winter.

But in order to keep payroll flexibility in place for an all-important, shortstop-filled offseason next year, the Dodgers can’t afford to make these mistakes or pounce on some imperfect fits too early.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 25: Blake Treinen #49 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates after striking out Willy Adames (not pictured) of the Tampa Bay Rays to secure the 4-2 victory in Game Five of the 2020 MLB World Series at Globe Life Field on October 25, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 25: Blake Treinen #49 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates after striking out Willy Adames (not pictured) of the Tampa Bay Rays to secure the 4-2 victory in Game Five of the 2020 MLB World Series at Globe Life Field on October 25, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

3. Overpaying to Keep Blake Treinen

The Dodgers can’t let sentimentality get in the way of their potential bullpen plans.

Blake Treinen proved himself to be a phenomenal bounce-back bargain signing last offseason, even filling in as an occasional closer in the most tense moments of the 2020 postseason.

If he’s willing to return at a similar rate, then of course the Dodgers should entertain it. LA experienced the best of his bowling ball sinker in ’20, and he’s a solid fit as both an eighth-inning guy and an eventual replacement for Kenley Jansen, the worst-kept secret in the National League.

We’re not sure what the relief market is going to look like this offseason, but the early signs are offensive players are in trouble (why’s Eddie Rosario being cut?!) and pitchers are being taken care of (Drew Smyly?!) — with the obvious caveat that Brad Hand’s release was Indians-created malpractice.

Essentially, if Treinen ends up being part of a stagnant market and you can secure his services for two years and $20 million (a doubling up of the most recent contract he signed), then by all means, go for it. But if the bidding reaches three years, you already know you can import Hand for a single season at under $10 million.

And the Dodgers should probably just do that instead.

ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 30: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the second inning of Game One of the National League Wild Card Series against the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park on September 30, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 30: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the second inning of Game One of the National League Wild Card Series against the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park on September 30, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /

2. Overpaying Trevor Bauer

The Dodgers could be playing in the deep end of the pool for Trevor Bauer — but why, though?

Trevor Bauer certainly would prefer the Dodgers be involved in his free agency process, especially in this confusing offseason.

When Bauer declared he’d only sign one-year deals forever and ever, he probably didn’t anticipate a global pandemic creating an unprecedented need for financial security, we’d assume. At this point, one-year, $40 million looks less likely than ever, and Bauer will probably try to parlay his insane 2020 spin rate into a longer-term deal.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Bauer to head to Hollywood on a four-year, $128 million deal. While that’s certainly the type of commitment you make if you’re looking for the kill shot, the World Champions do not have a rotation problem.

Clayton Kershaw’s postseason should’ve put any doubts about his viability to rest, Walker Buehler grabbed the ace reins, Julio Urias was the most effective October pitcher of any Dodger, and Tony Gonsolin, while an October sore spot, was Baseball America’s Rookie of the Year. Dustin May, top prospect Josiah Gray…and, oh yeah, former Red Sox ace David Price, and all of a sudden, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Los Angeles.

So, staring at a troublesome bullpen and an up-in-the-air left side of the infield, why would the Dodgers commit a hefty chunk to Bauer? Just because he asked them to? Perhaps it’s time to let the outspoken righty be the Angels’ problem, if he’s so desperate to relocate to the region. They’re far more bereft of pitching, and they always have a budget to work with.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 27: Justin Turner #10 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after flying out against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning in Game Six of the 2020 MLB World Series at Globe Life Field on October 27, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 27: Justin Turner #10 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after flying out against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning in Game Six of the 2020 MLB World Series at Globe Life Field on October 27, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

1. Committing Too Much to Justin Turner

A few long-term Dodgers are up for grabs this offseason, and Justin Turner’s return is probably the least important right now.

How many more ways can we say it? Corey Seager’s return after the 2021 season is paramount, and if the end of Justin Turner’s career is going to come between the Dodgers and Seager, then it’s time to re-prioritize.

Turner will probably require a multi-year commitment of between $24-$28 million for his age-36 and 37 seasons. In a vacuum, you’d pay that for his level of production, especially since it seems unlikely that many teams on the edge of contention will surrender that premium for his brand of veteran leadership.

But you’re fighting the clock here, too. Turner’s been reliable and healthy up to this point, but how much longer will his bat be above league average? How much longer will he be able to man third base before his mobility disappears?

With versatile top prospects like Gavin Lux and Michael Busch in need of playing time, as well as the concurrent free agency of supersub Kiké Hernández, nearly as clutch and important to the Dodgers’ recent postseason runs as Turner’s been, there’s a far cheaper way to piece together the infield.

Especially an infield on the verge of committing to their World Series MVP, who may or may not need to move to second base eventually, anyway.

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